Despite Thom Brennaman’s recommendations, I have not yet had the opportunity to improve my life with twenty minutes – or even just five minutes – in Tim Tebow’s presence. What I have had the opportunity to do is to watch Tebow go on to complete one of the greatest careers in the history of college football. He has won a Heisman Trophy, has been named the AP Player of the Year, and has broken several college football records, all capped off with two BCS National Championships.
In addition to his remarkable performance on the field, Tebow is generally regarded as a person of high character. But even with his on-field dominance and all around good-guy persona, there has not been a more polarizing character coming out of the college football ranks for a very long time.
There is just no such thing as a middle-of-the-road opinion on Tim Tebow. Whether fan, analyst, scout, or player, EVERYONE has an opinion on Tebow – and they are almost ALL extreme.
Even now, as we get ready for the NFL Draft (which is only one month away) the Tim Tebow debate continues to rage on, and it has NFL analysts and scouts chiming-in with their assessment of Tebow.
Following a highly-publicized Senior Bowl performance where Tebow was clearly uncomfortable while running a “pro-style” offense, his draft projection came into question. Many scouts and analysts in the anti-Tebow camp have discussed the problems in Tebow’s throwing mechanics, citing that as a major obstacle that will prevent him from becoming a successful NFL quarterback. They have been very vocal about criticizing his play, arguing that his success in the college game will not translate into NFL success. Adding to that criticism are the recent comments from a former Florida Gators teammate of Tebow’s, wide receiver Deonte Thompson, who implied that Tebow was not a “real” quarterback.
For his part, Tebow has put forth a great amount of effort in changing his throwing motion, but many question whether or not it will be enough.
On the flip side of this issue are many other well-respected voices in the NFL who believe that Tebow has proven himself a winner. They whole-heartedly believe Tebow will be a success in the NFL ranks. Former Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy even went so far as to use the word “great” in his assessment of how Tebow will perform as a pro.
Now it is time for The Sports Debates to weigh-in on the Tebow debate: Will Tim Tebow be successful as a quarterback in the NFL?
Babe Ruthless will argue on Tebow’s behalf by trying to prove that Tebow will make the transition into the NFL and become a successful quarterback. Loyal Homer will argue to the contrary, providing evidence that Tebow will not find success among the professional ranks.
Let’s role play for a minute (don’t worry, it’s nothing kinky). I will take the role of an NFL scout, and you will act as an NFL general manager. As the draft approaches our team has a gaping hole at the quarterback position and I come to you with this news –“We have found a hidden gem in this year’s draft.”
This player is incredible. He has the physical tools of a young Donavan McNabb, the leadership of Drew Brees, and media presence of Peyton Manning. He has proven he can handle the pressure of big game situations. He has national awards and multiple national championships to boot. Oh, and here is the kicker, he is actually underrated. He might even be around until the third or fourth round.
Does that scenario sound too good to be true? Well it’s not. Tim Tebow matches the criteria above, and yet we are still debating his ability to be a pro quarterback in the NFL.
Tim Tebow is the complete package. He possesses a wealth of talent and the three “I”s – intensity, integrity, and intelligence – as well. His style of play is physical, intense, and unpredictable. Although he is not the prototypical speedy scrambling quarterback (like Michael Vick or Vince Young), he is still a threat to tuck the ball and fight for yardage on the ground, especially in the red zone. Even his critics, including Mel Kiper, Jr., admit he is great at moving with the ball in his hands. The fact that Tebow is a one-man-wildcat offense should be an offensive coordinator’s dream because his skills open up the field and make it difficult for opposing defenses to prepare.
Still many of his detractors sell him short and view him as a tight end or fullback rather than a quarterback. I will admit that he could play those positions, but he will ultimately be more valuable bringing his unique style of play to the quarterback position. Some analysts have even made comparisons between Tebow and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ goal line legend, Mike Alstott. That is not a negative, either. Obviously, I think he is capable of much more, but at the very least I will agree that he would be formidable on the ground. His intense, physical style of play can also get him hurt. But the best quarterbacks mix it up with the defense every now and then for the benefit of the team (see Peyton Manning throwing blocks on running plays).
Some of the best attributes Tim Tebow brings to the table are his intangibles. A front office that drafts Tebow can breath easy knowing they are not going to wake up to ESPN reporting that he shot himself in the leg at a strip club or started a vicious cat fighting ring in his back yard (I figured dog fighting was overdone, and Tebow strikes me more as a cat man anyway.) Don’t get me wrong, Tebow will make headlines for his off-the-field actions, but those headlines are more likely to be about his faith or community involvement. Recently, he made headlines for asking for a moment of prayer before taking the Wonderlic Exam at the NFL combine. While this brought him the ire of some in the media, and at least one cat call of “shut the [fudge] up!” from another would-be draftee, it’s telling of his character. If the biggest distractions surrounding your quarterback – who is often the face of a franchise – are his requests for prayer and what Bible verses he has on his eye black, it is a safe assumption that the coach and owner are not going to lose a whole lot of sleep worrying about their quarterback’s personal life (the Steelers’ front office should get hazard pay for their loss of sleep due to the shenanigans of Ben Roethlisberger and his apparent life coach, Charlie Sheen.).
Tebow’s leadership is also a major attribute. He has been a vocal leader on championship teams since his high school days. Carolina Panthers’ head coach John Fox said of Tebow’s leadership in high school and college, “You look at those types of things and he’s shown the ability to lead men, albeit young men, but they’re still men. In fact, that might be harder.” His ability to lead can anchor any number of teams that seem to be adrift in their division without passion or vision. Teams like Carolina, Buffalo, and Cleveland could all use a strong leadership presence to breathe new life into stagnant offenses.
The man even turns negatives into positives. Take the criticism about his throwing motion for example. It is perceived to be his Achilles Heel and is touted as the biggest weakness of his game. Sure, Tebow had a throwing motion slower than a 1920s windup baseball pitcher. And yes, all that time would give blitzing defenders an eternity to see how much turf they could force feed the rookie quarterback. But he has made all that a virtual non-factor by creating a new, more compact delivery. Let that set in for a minute. The guy hears criticism about a weakness and takes proactive steps to fix it. He could have pulled a prima donna act and declared there was nothing wrong with his mechanics. But instead he responds with action. That impresses me, and it appears to be impressing NFL teams, as more seem to be taking the QB more seriously every day.
In the end, no one will know how he will turn out until he’s given a chance, but it seems increasingly clear that he will be given a chance at quarterback. When it comes to predicting NFL success analysts get it wrong just as much, if not even more, than they get it right. Six other quarterbacks were selected before Tom Brady the year he was drafted. It is always a guessing game. In the end, the only basis for evaluating how a player actually performs in real life situations is to take a look at their college days. Tebow was the best of the best at Florida. The smart money is on his unconventional success in the NFL.
Surely you knew The Sports Debates could not go too long without a football debate, right?
The NFL Scouting Combine begins in Indianapolis today, with 329 players set to be put through the ringer by NFL scouts and assorted “front office personnel.” Obviously, the NFL Network will have wall-to-wall coverage. I have friends who will be watching hours and hours of coverage over the next few days. I will watch some it, and catch a peak at how some of the players do. It is an opportunity for pre-draft favorites to cement their status as one of the draft’s elite players, and give other lesser regarded players a chance to shoot up the draft board. Obviously, it gives ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay something to talk about on air, too.
Players are also interviewed by the teams as they are poked and prodded about their past and present and how they envision their future. Many psychological tests are administered, and let’s not forget about the infamous Wonderlic intelligence test. What it boils down to is the fact that the players are undergoing an extensive job interview. In fact, here is a list of all the things that each of the 329 players will have to go through in the coming days.
But is the NFL Scouting Combine really necessary? Is it relevant? That is where your favorite sports debate website comes in to settle the score. Summoned to the courtroom today are Bleacher Fan and Babe Ruthless.
Bleacher Fan will argue that the NFL Scouting Combine is relevant and that, among other things, it gives the prospective employer a chance to interview players and see, in person, the various skills that each player brings to the table. Since Bleacher Fan has been in the position of hiring people over the years, it will be interesting to see the thought process.
Babe Ruthless, on the other hand, will argue that the NFL Scouting Combine is not really that relevant and is both overrated and overhyped.
The stage is set, the stopwatches are ready, and this is in fact your Wonderlic Test! Let’s see how smart you are!
Football is a perpetually evolving sport. Football teams are constantly searching for the next breakthrough that will give them even the slightest advantage. The introduction of sabermetrics style data driven decision making, the wildcat formation, and the emphasis of the two back rushing attack are just a few examples of how NFL teams are leaving conventional wisdom in the past throughout the last decade in search of new, innovative approaches. So that is why I am shocked that NFL teams are still putting so much stock in the NFL’s Scouting Combine. The combine is not a relevant tool for gauging player’s future performance in the NFL.
How does anyone make an argument for the validity of the combine? Really, I want to know. The combine activities are designed to measure the readiness and successfulness of potential NFL players. But, do they really? While the tests provide basic information about the health and athleticism of players, none of the combine activities demonstrate a player’s actual ability to play football. The standing broad jump and bench press are not actual parts of the game. Yet, for some strange reason, scouts, coaches, and general managers flock to the combine to compare notes on just such statistics. There are even less relevant aspects to the combine like sprints, shuttle runs, and intelligence tests.
Before you get all defensive about that last statement, let me admit that speed and intelligence are a large part success in the NFL. But these tests are not an accurate assessment of either trait. Players do not run undefended routes without pads in game situations. In the NFL speed is not measured against a stopwatch, but against mean, bone-crunching linebackers and defensive backs. Similarly, intelligence is a positive attribute in the NFL. But I have never seen Peyton Manning take a paper and pencil test to the line of scrimmage. In fact I would argue that the intelligence testing is truly invalid because it measures academic knowledge and not football knowledge. For example, the Wonderlic test, a 50 question intelligence measure, is given to each combine participant. The test asks questions ranging from “Which of these don’t belong” type questions to solving volume equations (you know, the usual football stuff.) In general, combine participants usually score in the average range, and thus far only one NFL player has ever scored a perfect 50 out of 50 – former Cincinnati Bengals punter Pat McInally (Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that he went to Harvard.) So, what does a test that measures academic knowledge that only a Harvard grad can ace tell us about a player’s football ability? Nothing!
Combine supporters argue that the event is needed to classify players, but that is not true. Most of the time teams have already classified players (in terms of speed, hands, agility, etc.) based on observations from scouting and film breakdown. Just this week Sports Illustrated writer Peter King reported that one of his highly respected sources in the NFL – who wished to remain anonymous – pointed out that this season his team’s draft board is already “90 percent set.” It seems that the only legitimate football purpose of the combine is helping indecisive scouts and football personnel further classify players. To think the NFL combine is the only – or even the most effective – way to make these classifications is wrong. Teams can still invite players for a workout, and scouts can still observe players speed in actual game situations… both of which are far more accurate measures of ability than the combine’s pad-less drills offer.
It stands to reason that the old fashioned method of scouting players and watching them actually play football is far superior to the combine.
I absolutely love Hot Stove time in Major League Baseball. I was eating up all on the information last week during the Winter Meetings. Outside of maybe the NFL draft, it’s my favorite non-game related sporting event of the year. One day I am going to be in the same town as the Winter Meetings just so I can feel the buzz from possible trades and free agent signings. Being a huge fan of baseball I am constantly looking for information. I often need a baseball fix 24-7, even during the off-season. Having a cable channel focused fully on baseball is a dream come true. Unfortunately, I do not have MLB Network on Dish Network. Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek both have it, and they often like to rub that fact in just a tad (Editor’s note: It is more than a tad. We rub it in a lot.). I have a fever, and the only prescription is MLB Network! The point is that it is a huge benefit to have a channel devoted exclusively to a sport. Exclusivity is a tremendous advantage to over other sports networks like ESPN.
As Sports Geek stated in the intro, MLB Network has recently hired Peter Gammons, who was employed at ESPN for twenty years. You will not find many more credible people in sports media than Peter Gammons. He is well respected in the business by players, front office personnel, and by other members of the media. You may recall that Gammons is the journalist Alex Rodriguez chose to interview him back before the 2009 season began when it was deemed that A-Rod tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. By leaving ESPN, Gammons leaves a void there, and fills a void at MLB Network.
As you can probably tell from my previous articles I am also a huge fan of the NFL. Finally, after switching from cable to satellite two years ago, I have access to the NFL Network. I did not have the channel for quite some time… and it aggravated me because I wasn’t able to watch the Thursday night NFL games and the Saturday night December games. In fact, the network has a big game this Saturday night featuring the undefeated New Orleans Saints against the Dallas Cowboys in a huge game for Dallas. The network obviously also has ‘round the clock coverage of games from the previous week, analysis, classic games, and much more. It is the perfect channel for NFL junkies like me
I do not have to wait for NFL Live to come on ESPN. I do not have to listen to the latest developments on Tiger Woods. I can just watch a show that is 100 percent football and get the in-depth knowledge I crave. I know ESPN covers professional football heavily, and I have no problem with its coverage. But if, in the middle of the day, and I want to watch football I am turning the channel to the NFL Network. I also change the channel in the weeks leading up to the NFL draft, as the NFL Network provides hours and hours of coverage, even televising the scouting combines. ESPN does not do that.
My point is not to diss ESPN. My point is that the niche networks are able to carry exclusive content and are able to focus solely on one sport, year-round. ESPN has several sports to cover and obviously cannot go as far as NFL Network, MLB Network, NBA TV, or the NHL Network with its coverage.
Now, excuse me while I go call Dish Network to complain again about not having the MLB Network.
By a show of hands, who here likes rookie contract holdouts? Anyone? Hello? Bueller?
No one likes rookie contract holdouts. That is why many sports fans are celebrating Michael Crabtree’s just desserts (hmmm, tastes bitter). The 49ers drafted him tenth overall in the 2009 NFL Draft, but Crabtree has not signed a contract yet because he does not believe he should be paid like a tenth overall pick. Another receiver was taken before him by the Oakland Raiders at number seven, and Crabtree and his handles simply cannot deal with reality. They are holding out for “first receiver taken in the draft money” instead of “tenth overall selection in the draft” money.
However, Crabtree hard-headed approach to the contract negotiations with his would-be employer is not going well – for Crabtree. He is holding to the belief that since the one billion mock drafts we all see prior to the actual NFL draft he should be paid in the spot he was predicted to be drafted at. It is a completely ridiculous notion, and the 49ers management is not buying at all.
After the 49ers week one victory, the team lowered the offer to the holdout. (Another win in week two will likely lead to another lowered offer.) The more Crabtree holds out, the more value he loses for the team. If I am head coach Mike Singletary right now, there is no way I sign Crabtree. In fact, I push to just release his draft rights. My team has good chemistry and it is getting built upon winning – winning without the holdout prima donna receiver.
Though if anyone can fix Crabtree’s indulgent attitude problems it is probably Singletary, why disrupt a winning team? The coach also must think about his time investment. At this point in the season he is working with an entire team of players who have either gone through rookie mini-camp, all of the OTA’s, training camp where the offense gets installed, the preseason where it gets practiced, and now two games of the real “these games actually count” season. Signing Crabtree now would be forcing a “special player status” into the team dynamic (something Singletary cares about a great deal). He simply has too much to learn right now, and the investment of time and resources to get him up to speed is not worth the return… especially when considering the fact that the team is actually winning!
It is easy to talk about the time and resources problems that Crabtree presents… especially when he is an unproven talent at the professional level. Right now he is just another rookie that thinks he deserves more than everyone else. But he has proven nothing in the NFL, as either a professional person or an athlete.
Crabtree is just another in a long line of prima donna receivers who believes he is better than everyone else in the league. He is a player who sees only his value in his own created context, not what the market or smart people are telling him. The 49ers hard line with Crabtree is absolutely the right move. They owe him nothing. Plus, now they are proving they do not need him on the field, either. The 49ers stand to gain a lot by allowing Crabtree to re-enter the NFL draft in 2010, and it starts with money. In what will likely be an uncapped year, the 49ers will now have extra cash to go after proven players.
Five months ago, San Francisco 49ers fans were tickled to death because their team had just selected wide receiver Michael Crabtree with the 10th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. When combined with Frank Gore, this up and coming team (who showed promise under new head coach Mike Singletary late last season) might actually make a run at a division title, or at the very least a wild card berth. The 49ers have not made the playoffs since 2002, and their overall record since that time is 32-64 (Ouch!). But for the fans, Crabtree was coming to save the day just like he did in college at Texas Tech.
Something happened, however, to ruin this feel good story – Crabtree refused to sign. Among other things, he feels that he was the best receiver in the draft and deserves more money than what the Oakland Raiders gave Darrius Heyward-Bey, the wide receiver selected ahead of Crabtree at 7th in the draft. Heyward-Bey signed a five-year deal worth up to $38.25M with $23.5M guaranteed. The 49ers, at this point, are not willing to give Crabtree the money he wants.
There are now also reports that the 49ers have filed an official complaint with the NFL that accuses the New York Jets of tampering, but the Jets are denying the allegations.
With everything going on, this has not yet been a distraction to the 49ers who have started the season with two wins, including a road win over the 2008 NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. Folks in the Bay area are starting to get excited about the 49ers again, despite the fact that the 49er offense is anemic without running back Frank Gore. Quarterback Shaun Hill currently sits 28th in the league in passing with 176.5 yards per game, and throwing to guys like Arnaz Battle, Josh Morgan, and an aging Isaac Bruce doesn’t help the passing attack.
What would you do if you were in charge of the San Francisco 49ers organization? Would you keep trying to sign Crabtree, or would you let him walk away and reenter the draft next year? No one is denying his talent and what his impact could possibly mean to the 49ers, but is it too late for the team to get any benefit from signing him this late in the season?
Enter the Sports Debates (cue dramatic theme music)!
Should the 49ers cut their losses and let wide receiver Michael Crabtree reenter the draft?
Sports Geek will argue that they should let him reenter the 2010 draft, while Bleacher Fan will argue that the 49ers should still sign him if at all possible.
“The first principle of contract negotiation is don’t remind them of what you did in the past; tell them what you are going to do in the future.”
-Stan Musial
If Roger Goodell and the NFL move toward a program of structuring rookie salaries, it would accomplish nothing more than to punish both the teams AND the players.
First, it punishes the team because it restricts their ability to dictate how they can administer their salaries.
The NFL Salary Cap already exists to govern and restrict the amount of money that a team can spend on player salaries. In the simplest of explanations, each team is given an allotted dollar amount that they can distribute among their players as they see fit. It is up to each team to determine for itself how to spend the money.
If, for example, Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis wants to spend $61M on quarterback JaMarcus Russell before he even takes a snap in professional play, shouldn’t that be his prerogative? While you or I may believe that it is foolish to offer that kind of money to an unproven player, it is ultimately Al Davis’ team. If he is okay with spending his money in that manner, then I say let him! There is no rule forcing the NFL team to sign these players. Ultimately, the team has to make the decision as to whether or not they feel the player is worth the value they are assigning him, not the other way around.
Consider Cleveland Browns quarterback Brady Quinn as a perfect example of this. Following the drama around his selection in the draft, Quinn decided to hold out from training camp his rookie season. Although he was selected as the 22nd pick, he (or should I say his agent, Tom Condon) felt that he was still deserving of the salary of a top ten pick. The Browns, however, disagreed. In the end, Quinn ended up missing the first 12 days of his rookie training camp before finally signing an agreement with the Browns. What did he gain from this holdout? He earned only an additional $250K in guaranteed money, and many feel the holdout cost him the opportunity at being named the Browns starter since he was so delayed in joining the team. The current system allows each team the autonomy to assign their own value to the players they draft, rather than have the value dictated to them.
Second, this policy punishes the players. Sure, there will be some “busts” in the draft who prosper from negotiated contracts, but the alternative is to strip away the earning power of a rookie who DOES perform exceedingly well.
It is true that teams cannot predict the future, and for every Peyton Manning (viewed as one of the ten best number one picks in history) there is also a Tim Couch (viewed as one of the ten worst picks). Rather than look at individual examples we can examine ALL of the top ten draft picks since 2000 to provide us with a better overall picture of the type of talent which comes from those players.
In 2008, Jake Long and the Miami Dolphins were criticized because of the high dollar amount he received as an “untested” player. Long, however, went on to be named to a Pro Bowl. Another top ten draft pick from 2008 who I feel was DESERVING of a Pro Bowl bid last year (he at a minimum earned his salary) was quarterback Matt Ryan, selected by the Atlanta Falcons.
For the remaining top ten picks still under the terms of their “rookie” contract (2005, 2006, 2007), 20% of those players have been named to at least one Pro Bowl. Players like running back Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings and left tackle Joe Thomas of the Cleveland Browns come to mind as other players named to the Pro Bowl as rookies.
For the years of 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004, that number increases dramatically. Of the 50 players selected in the top ten positions of their respective drafts during that timeframe, 28 of them (56%) have gone on to be named Pro Bowlers. That means that more than half of the players selected as top ten picks have developed into being considered the best players in their position.
Talent does not know age. Since 2000, approximately 40% of all the players selected as top ten picks have been named to the Pro Bowl (and that number INCLUDES the 2008 rookie class), which is proof of the very high caliber of talent coming from those selections. Since those players have a very strong likelihood of being classified as ‘best in position’ they deserve the same right to negotiate contracts as any “tenured” player in the league. Any move by the league to restrict a rookie’s salary would essentially classify them as sub-standard players until they “prove” themselves, DESPITE historical evidence which indicates otherwise.
Folks, it’s getting to be the time where we really can start to get excited about the start of football season. The Sports Debates is especially excited about it. I hope you enjoy our football debates over the coming months.
Today, we are discussing which team has the best chance to go undefeated in 2009. After doing a little research, I have determined that I think the defending national champion Florida Gators have the best chance to go undefeated. There’s no doubt that expectations are high down in Gainesville this year. That’s the case pretty much every year. But, this year is different. Mr. Everything Tim Tebow (you may have heard of him) is back for his senior season, and the team as a whole returns 18 starters including all eleven on defense. In fact, the Gators have 12 players on the preseason All-SEC first and second team. Anything less than a national title will likely be viewed as a disappointment.
The offense was ranked fourth nationally last year with an average of 43.6 points per game. While losing athletic wide receiver Percy Harvin and wide receiver Louis Murphy, the Gators still return a plethora of running backs including Jeffrey Demps, Chris Rainey, Emmanuel Moody, and others. You might as well consider Tebow a running back also.
There’s also strong leadership on this team with Tebow and with Brandon Spikes on defense. Both guys passed up a chance to enter the NFL Draft so they could come back and attempt to win a second consecutive championship. Together, the two of them have posted an outstanding 35-6 record in their three years at Florida with two national championships in, arguably, college football’s toughest conference (though Bleacher Fan would not agree!).
In a short time frame, head coach Urban Meyer has developed into one of college football’s most revered coaches. Loved by some and hated by others, Meyer quickly has put the Gators back on top, as he has achieved a 44-9 record in four years. He gets under the skin of Gator haters, though I believe that new Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin may have replaced him as the conference’s most hated coach – which is strange considering Kiffin has yet to coach a game yet. I also don’t think these two will be playing a round of golf together anytime soon after Kiffin’s mouth got him in trouble (and it wasn’t the only time.).
There’s no getting around the fact that the Gators have a tough schedule this year. There’s also no getting around the fact that every SEC team has a tough schedule every year and they know that going into the season. That makes it really difficult to go undefeated. The Gators have a potentially rough trip to Baton Rouge on October 10th to take on LSU. Chances are that game will be a night game, which makes it extra tough. A night game at Death Valley is really rough on the opponent and its fans! But, the Gators may catch a break as they have an off week to prepare for that game. Their other tough games are the neutral site games (though the neutrality of the site is debatable) against Georgia and a November trip to South Carolina. It will be extremely tough, but an undefeated season is not out of the question.
I’d be stupid to truly predict anything, especially since we, at the Sports Debates, try to stay away from any type of prediction – it’s just not what we do. But, out of all of the teams that I have looked at, I believe the Florida Gators have the best chance to run the table. The experience they have coming back with 18 starters offsets any concerns I have about the rugged schedule.
I really wish that ESPN would quit wasting our time with Mock NFL Drafts.
Sit and analyze the athletes all day long! Project those players who you think have the best chance of competing successfully at the next level. You could even go so far as to speculate whom you think will be drafted #1 overall. After that, though, you are just making stuff up. It’s ALL bogus.
The first mistake made by Mock Draft analysts such as Mel Kiper, Jr., is that they try to make sense out of all the misinformation sent by NFL organizations. Some organizations are very good at keeping their cards close to the chest. These NFL organizations intentionally deceive and misinform in order to leverage any confusion to gain an advantage. Draft strategies are planned and executed in the same way a poker player bluffs, recognizes tells, and engages in guesswork.
Because of this misinformation, each subsequent draft pick becomes exponentially more difficult to predict. It becomes so difficult, in fact, that by the time the top-10 have actually been drafted, each analyst’s Mock Draft sheet is no longer worth the paper on which it’s printed.
Matthew Stafford (Matthew Stafford – good for you!)
Jason Smith (Jason Smith – 2 for 2… you’re on a roll!)
Tyson Jackson (Aaron Curry – Like Meatloaf said, though, two out of three ain’t bad!)
Aaron Curry (Eugene Monroe – We’re still batting .500… in baseball, that’s legendary!)
Mark Sanchez (B.J. Raji – The wheels are starting to come off…)
Andre Smith (Michael Crabtree – I can’t watch any more…)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Jeremy Maclin – Kiper’s inner monologue… “I’ve never even HEARD of that guy”)
Eugene Monroe (Mark Sanchez – Knowing you’re wrong before it even happens only makes it worse!)
B.J. Raji (Brian Orapko – OHHH, THE HUMANITY!)
Michael Crabtree (Aaron Maybin – The sound of Taps playing in the distance)
To recap, Mel Kiper, Jr., one of the NFL draft “experts” on ESPN, got only the first two picks correct. He then went OH’fer on the rest of the top 10, scoring a LOUSY 20% accuracy. The shame of this result is that his predictions came AFTER hearing about which players were eligible, and AFTER free-agency. This was his BEST guess, with the BEST information available. Even weather predictions are more accurate than that! I’d almost rather hear what Miss Cleo had to say about the Draft, because she would at least bring incense and trippy music!
These results beg the next question: If the “experts” can be so wrong with the best information available, how on earth can they even assume to have anything worth saying before free-agency, or before the deadline for players to declare their eligibility? Fortunately for sports fans everywhere, ESPN can often be oblivious to the need for accuracy, so they just ignore that fact.
ESPN analyst Todd McShay (whose 2009 top-10 accuracy matched Kiper’s by only predicting the first 2 correct) has actually ALREADY published a Mock Draft for 2010, BEFORE the NFL and NCAA seasons have even BEGUN!
When all is said and done, ESPN invests far too much time and energy in this process – which is a complete waste of time – and somehow feels that they are an authority on the topic. They might as well slap a 1-900 phone number in front of it, because that’s all the REAL value it would ever carry.
I don’t know about you, but at the Casa-Del-Bleacher-Fan, when you hear the TV say “And now, here to talk about his Mock Draft for 2010,” the next thing you hear is… -CLICK-!
Posted by Bleacher Fan 
