The Lowering Wins for the MLB HOF Debate Verdict

June 23, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Bleacher Fan.

It seems that the controversy surrounding this debate is far from over, as my decision was ultimately made by evidence than neither writer explicitly introduced.

Now, before Loyal Homer and Bleacher Fan turn their passion for this debate into rage for the judge, let me explain. After reading both arguments I noticed that each author made valid points… but failed to completely win me over to their respective side. So, despite both writers’ valiant attempts to persuade me, I remained as neutral and noncommittal as a Brett Favre about retirement. In my search for a decision I was forced to turn my attention to the facts and some numbers that neither argument fully explored.

Loyal Homer made a fervent plea for sustaining the sanctity of the unofficial 300 win benchmark. His strongest point was made when he explained that Jamie Moyer – the current all time wins leader among active pitchers – is the perfect example of a sub-300 game winner who might one day attain the 275 win mark, but whose career numbers suggest he does not deserve to be held in such elite regard as a member of the Hall of Fame. I completely agree, while peripheral statistics like ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts may not always be the best indicators of great and effective pitching, they are certainly not completely invalid when considering a players’ Hall candidacy.

Although Loyal Homer was certain that lowering the benchmark to 275 would be “totally disrespectful” to 300 win Hall of Famers, and even went as far as to say that lowering the bar “… essentially slaps the face of 24 current… Hall of Fame pitchers,” I wasn’t so sure. While his harsh words sat well with both my traditional and ruthless sides, as today’s judge I had to be more objective in my call and was ultimately still was not fully convinced in either direction.

Bleacher Fan’s stirring call for redress in the current Hall of Fame expectations made a great many keen observations. He is absolutely right in his assertion that the game is constantly evolving. He is similarly correct in his statements about how the changes that have resulted from baseball’s stratagem shift (i.e. five man rotations, specialized roles for relievers, and innings restrictions) have seriously limited the potential for pitchers to accumulate the same amount of innings as past 300 game winners have. But I disagree that this has permanently slammed the door shut on anyone achieving this feat.

In fact, I completely disagree with Bleacher Fan’s foolhardy notion that Randy Johnson will be the last pitcher to reach the 300 win milestone. Talent always seems to find away. I am sure that no one ever dreamed that one day a reliever would record 500 saves, yet two active players – Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera – have done just that (and Hoffman is just four saves away from a mind blowing 600). In the same respect, I feel certain that no one ever believed that Babe Ruth’s single season home run record (60 in 1927) would ever be topped, yet it was on seven occasions since then. Had Hall of Fame voters lowered the bar to meet with the temporary achievement of the times, a great deal more players would have been inducted, but perhaps not rightfully.

In the end I was still torn, but I was truly shocked that neither argument addressed what I consider the pivotal aspect of this debate – pitchers who were inducted to the Hall of Fame with less than 300 wins.

By my count there are more than 40 pitchers that were inducted into the Hall without reaching the 300 win milestone. In fact, some pitchers reached the Hall with fewer than 250 career wins like Whitey Ford (236) and Bob Lemon (207), but more impressively some never even reached 200 wins, including Lefty Gomez (189) and Sandy Koufax (165).

I am not just referring to starters, either. if we wanted to go the reliever route, Bruce Sutter reached the Hall with just 68 wins. Admittedly, many of these pitchers were aided by the number of innings pitchers used to receive, but nevertheless, their induction proves 300 wins isn’t the “end all be all” of Hall of Fame criteria.

The simple fact that more than 40 pitchers made the Hall of Fame without 300 wins proves that even if the expectation remains as it is, great pitchers will still reach the Hall. Each one of the hurlers that went on to be enshrined in Cooperstown did so because of an unprecedented skill or achievement. Even though Loyal Homer did not directly address this aspect of the debate I believe it supports his argument. Baseball can afford to keep its expectations high and still reward its highest achievers as well. For that reason, Loyal Homer wins this debate in a close one.

In closing, I would like to say that this was the most difficult verdict I have ever had to write. Both Loyal Homer and Bleacher Fan made excellent cases, but the data does not lie. It is not out of blind tradition that baseball should cling to this unofficial benchmark, but because it maintains high standards without excluding the potential for great players to reach the Hall of Fame even without 300 wins.

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The Lowering Wins for MLB HOF Debate

June 22, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Bleacher Fan.

When a pitcher wins 300 games in baseball they have achieved an incredible feat, a true rarity. Only 24 pitchers have ever recorded 300 wins in their career, and every eligible pitcher that has done so thus far has been inducted into the Hall of Fame. It is clear that reaching this benchmark has become an important criterion for determining whether a player is of Hall of Fame quality.

Although several players have reached the 300 win plateau over the past decade, the next potential candidates could be quite a long way off. Modern day five starter rotations, innings limits, and the increase specialization of bullpen pitchers have seriously undercut contemporary hurlers’ chances of winning 300 games. Jamie Moyer (265 wins) and Andy Pettitte (237 wins), head the list of active pitchers who are closest to the impressive mark. And there are plenty of super talented pitchers like them who may never see 300 wins – guys like Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, and Mark Buehrle. But, does that mean that great pitchers like these should not reach the Hall?

Today TSD tackles this daunting debate: Should the MLB HOF lower the “300 win threshold” to 275?

Bleacher Fan will argue that baseball needs to modify its expectations. He will need to explain how lowering the bar to 275 wins will help the game evolve without undermining the integrity and history of previous players’ accomplishments. Loyal Homer, on the other hand, will explain why the preservation of the 300 win expectation is important to the game’s legacy. He will have to make a case that does not just pander to purist tradition, but is founded in objective reasoning.

This clash figures to be an epic debate… but which author’s argument is Hall worthy?

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The Lowering Wins for the MLB HOF Debate… Unrealistic Expectations

June 22, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Loyal Homer.

The current career wins leader, for active pitchers, is Phillies starter Jamie Moyer.

Over his lengthy (that’s an understatement) career, he has amassed 265 total wins in 622 starts, meaning that he has won an average of 14 wins per season (at this writing).

If the 47-year old Southpaw is going to see 300 wins at that same rate, he is going to need to pitch UN-injured for the rest of this season PLUS two more. Can a 50-year old REALLY pitch full time as a starter, AND be successful? In a word – NO!

Below him sits Andy Pettitte, a whopping 63 wins away from the magic mark. Pettitte, who has only had two 20-win seasons in his entire career, and has not won more than 17 games since 2003, would need to notch THREE CONSECUTIVE 20-win seasons just to see 300 by the time he turns 41.

After Pettitte, there are no other active pitchers with even 200 wins.

C.C. Sabathia is currently the active leader for pitchers under-30 (and he’s not THAT far away… he’s 29), and he’s not even HALF WAY to 300 wins. EVEN IF the Cy Young winner and World Series ace were to completely repeat his remarkable career to this point, he would still have only 288 wins at the ripe old age of 38, and that is on the assumption that he, a full-time starting ace, could continue pitching, uninjured, for another full decade.

Face it. When Randy Johnson reached 300 wins last June, that marked the last time we will ever see that feat accomplished.

I know that is a bold statement, but when you consider the way that pitcher utilization has changed, the simple fact is that pitchers don’t see the same opportunities they once did to get a win. Between the shift from four-man starting rotations to one that includes a fifth starter, and expanding the use of relief pitching (middle relievers, long relievers, set-up men, closers, etc.), pitchers today get fewer appearances on the mound, fewer innings pitched, and then are not even guaranteed a decision based on their performances.

With a reduction in opportunity should also come a reduction in expectations.

In the early to mid 1900s, when the majority of Major League’s 300 win pitchers were realized, it was not unheard of for pitchers to toss in 40-50 games per season. Nowadays, if a pitcher can claim 35 starts in a single season it is considered a VERY busy year.

There just aren’t enough chances for a pitcher to have a legitimate shot at the 300-win mark anymore.

In 680 total appearances over 24 seasons, Jamie Moyer has won only 39 percent of those appearances. Andy Pettite has had only two 20-win seasons, and none greater than 21. C.C. Sabathia STILL has not had a 20 season winner.

Compare that to members of the 300 win club.

Roger Clemens had to pitch for 24 years, and sustain a win percentage of 49.9 percent over that quarter of a Century. Tom Seaver required 20 seasons just to hit 311. Within those 20 seasons, Seaver had to reach 20 wins five different times, including a 25-win mark in 1969. Cy Young (obviously the best of the best) won 56.4 percent of his appearances over a 22-season career which included 906 appearances, winning at least 20 games in 15 of those seasons (he actually won 30 games FIVE different times)!

Not surprisingly, when the pitchers had greater opportunities to amass wins, they won more games, making a total count of 300 more attainable.

Here is another statistic for you – the AVERAGE career length for a pitcher who accomplished 300 wins is only 20 years, and the AVERAGE age of retirement for that same group is 41. Based on the averages, EVEN the great pitchers still active today really have no shot at ever reaching 300 wins.

Essentially, the idea that a pitcher could achieve a career win total of 300 means that they would have to be above the average of already well above-average pitchers. So, why hold a virtually unattainable standard as an unofficial benchmark for automatic Hall of Fame induction? You may as well set 4,000 hits as the benchmark for hitters, and while you’re at it, let’s also set an unofficial expectation that you must have also won at least six World Series championships.

While I can appreciate the value in wanting to keep expectations for immortalization at Cooperstown very high, there must also be a need to accept the reality that much of the game has changed today, and that standards should also be changed in kind.

Back before the lively ball (in the late 1800s and early 1900s), season home run leaders such as Frank “Home Run” Baker knocked at best only 15-20 dingers all season. Back then, even the greatest hitters would not see more than 100-150 home runs over the course of their careers. By that standard, a hitter who hit more than 150 home runs would likely have been a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame.

Does that same standard apply today? Of course not! If it did, there would be 60 active players TODAY who would have already punched their ticket to Cooperstown, including Sports Geek’s personal hero, Jacques Jones! The way that the game was played had changed… as did the rules, the technology, and the equipment. As a result, standards had to be changed.

Yet, the pitching standard of 300 wins (which is likewise based on a standard set by guys like Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Eddie Plank, and Pud Galvin) was set during the Dead Ball Era when pitchers could throw spitballs, had more opportunities for starts, and pitched to more complete games. It is a standard that baseball purists are reluctant to throw away. It is a double-standard that will essentially be unreachable for any pitchers throwing in the league today.

By lowering the standard to only 275 wins, rather than 300, the game of baseball would at least be able to acknowledge a realistic expectation – even by Hall of Fame standards – for pitchers to strive toward.

Even if applied historically, that change would only open the door up to five pitchers previously retired who are not yet inducted into the Hall of Fame. And seriously, should a guy with 297 wins REALLY be excluded from the Hall of Fame just because he fell short of the magic number by THREE LOUSY WINS?!

A goal is only a goal if it can be reached.

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The Lowering Wins for the MLB HOF Debate… 300 is THE Standard

June 22, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Bleacher Fan.

You’d be surprised by the amount of behind the scenes conversation in the past week or so regarding today’s debate.

What started as a vocal debate about whether or not we’ll ever see another 300 game winner in Major League Baseball turned into a conversation about whether or not the threshold for Hall of Fame credentials should be lowered to 275 wins from the current total of 300.

I must be clear that I do feel that there will be some starting pitchers in the future who will win less than 300 wins that will likely make a trip to Cooperstown. C.C. Sabathia is a name that comes to mind, though Sports Geek believes it’s a possibility that Mr. Sabathia could chase 300 wins. I see no reason, however, to lower the “threshold” to 275 wins. For one reason, it just doesn’t sound as forward and clear as 300 anyway!

There are certain landmarks that must be reached in baseball in which you essentially guarantee yourself a trip to the Hall of Fame after you hang up the jersey. Getting 3,000 hits is certainly one of them. To a slightly lesser extent, hitting 500 home runs without steroid accusations (Bonds, Palmerio, McGwire) is another. And, as of right now, so is achieving 300 wins.

As Babe Ruthless stated in his intro, there are currently 24 members in the 300 win club, with Randy Johnson being the last one to join when he won his 300th game last season. While there is no specific reward given to the members, it’s a personal plateau reached, and an extremely difficult honor to accomplish. Lowering the threshold to 275 essentially slaps the face of 24 current or future Hall of Fame pitchers. Obviously, you don’t take away anything statistically from them, but do you really think people are going to start calling it “The 275 Win Club.”

Let’s look at Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jamie Moyer. He’s a solid major league pitcher who has had a lengthy career. He’s extremely well-respected by his peers, and who wouldn’t respect him? It’s an accomplishment in itself to still be a starting pitcher for one of the better teams in baseball at the age of 47, and it’s even more amazing due to his style of being a finesse pitcher. He is ignoring the calls of Father Time by getting batters out who are half his age. Hats off to him. He currently has 265 wins in his lengthy career. If he gets ten more wins, does he warrant a Hall of Fame nomination? He does not. Look at his career. He’s made ONE all star team. He has a career ERA of 4.23, with it never being below three in any season. Yet, if you go by Bleacher Fan’s proposed rules, and if Moyer gets ten more wins, he will have reached The Threshold, and warrants an automatic spot in Cooperstown. Do you really feel Jamie Moyer is a Hall of Fame pitcher? Has he ever been considered the best at his position for even ONE season?

Let’s assume you just finished your 30th year at your place of work. And let’s say that after thirty years on the job management gives you a nice gold watch and a vacation to the destination of your choice. When you come back, you find an email in your inbox saying the company is going to start honoring those who have been on the job for 25 years by giving them the same reward. How do you feel? Yes, that doesn’t take away the time you have put in and everything you have accomplished, but part of you probably feels cheated. It’s the same situation with this argument.

No one will ever take away 300 wins. It’s a legitimate personal accomplishment shared by only 24 men in this world. To cheapen their accomplishment would be totally disrespectful, and would be a step in the wrong direction.
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The Bad Team with an MVP Player Debate – Good or Bad, Context is King

October 2, 2009

Read the debate intro, Loyal Homer’s argument, and Bleacher Fan’s arguments about whether an MVP can come from a bad team.



First, thanks to the loyal readership who submitted our humble website to the all powerful “Judges Of The InterWebs.” The Sports Debates is now considered one of the 100 best blogs, and we appreciate it.

One of the aspects of TSD that is fun, I think, is the comments (and the ability to rate comments). It is the opportunity for our readers to provide feedback and even sway the judge’s decision on a pending verdict. The verdict for The Bad Team with an MVP Player Debate is one such debate where a reader’s comment has influenced the outcome. Thanks are in order to Old School, whose comment helped clarify my thinking about this topic.

The Yankees’ Joe DiMaggio won the MVP award over Boston’s Ted Williams in 1941. Williams dominated every important statistical category (including that rare one named “Triple Crown”). But, DiMaggio played for the sexier team, had a sexier mid-season accomplishment, and a personality to match it all. His popularity played into his MVP win. But, was he a deserving MVP? While this topic could likely turn into another debate down the road, I will offer up now that DiMaggio did not earn the MVP award. He was arguably not even the best player on his own team. Williams was the undisputed best player in Boston, and the obvious choice for MVP.

By the time 1987 rolled around, the MVP was still glamorous, but the award placed less emphasis on glamour. Despite Bleacher Fan’s counter argument about Cardinals shortstop Ozzie Smith being a more deserving MVP candidate that season, the Cubs Andre Dawson accounted for much, much more of his team’s total offense for the duration of the entire season. Smith was an important player to the Cardinals, but his offensive output was replaceable. The Cubs would have lost a considerable number of games in 1987 if it were not for Andre Dawson. Bleacher Fan wrongly discounts the home run (a category Dawson edged Smith out in… 49-0). The home run is crucial for a modern baseball offense – especially one playing the majority of its games in Wrigley Field. The Cubs only recorded 683 RBI in 1987. Dawson accounted for TWENTY PERCENT of the team’s TOTAL RBI for the season. Every fifth run batted in came off of Dawson’s bat. That is a remarkable accomplishment, and one worthy of an MVP. And, power does not diminish value. In the modern era of baseball, for better or worse, it proves it.

In baseball, value is completely subjective. What constitutes value? Is it the most prominent player on a team? Is it the best batting average, win-loss total, or clutch hitting in the seventh inning or later? Maybe it is all of those things, or a collection of other elements deemed important by the select few who are charged with deciding the outcome of a prestigious award like the MVP.

After reading both well-argued sides of this debate, I believe value of a player is in the player’s impact on their team. The best player in the league – regardless of team accomplishment – deserves the MVP. Therefore, the verdict is awarded to Loyal Homer.

Now, this decision will no doubt fire up Bleacher Fan. Like Helen of Troy, this verdict will likely launch 1,000 ships (and by ships I mean angry emails filled with lots of words IN ALL CAPS). Though likely futile, I will explain the verdict in full.

Bleacher Fan is correct that baseball is a team sport, sure. But, it is a team sport that is comprised of individual accomplishments. Whether the team a player is on is good or bad is immaterial to that player’s impact on the team. A team might lose 100 games. But if that losing team has a player who accounted for the majority of the offense AND led the league in home runs and RBI, then that player is worthy of consideration for the MVP. For me, value is measured by the greatest impact a player has, given their individual output in a team context.

Loyal Homer makes one pre-eminent, valid point. The most important criteria for deciding the MVP is the value of a player to his team in every aspect of the game. I also believe that if any position player and a catcher is tied in MVP voting, the catcher should always win based on their total intrinsic and extrinsic value to a team. In other words, Milton Bradley could hit a billion home runs in one season, but he should never win an MVP because of his attitude.

All of that said, the beauty of this award is in its subjective nature. To be frank, TSD would have no raison d’être without the subjective rule of sports and energetic fan opinion.

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The Bad Team with an MVP Player Debate – Did Andre Dawson Deserve the MVP?

October 1, 2009

Read Loyal Homer and Bleacher Fan’s arguments about whether an MVP can come from a bad team.



Is it possible that baseball’s most valuable player can come from a lousy team?

Of course there is precedent. The date was May 21, 1987. The perpetually confusing/maddening/lovable Chicago Cubs were in first place in the National League. The team was coming off of an impressive five game winning streak. Though the Cubbies would start to slip some at the end of the month, the club still ended May with 18 wins against just 10 losses. Starting pitchers Rick Sutcliffe, Greg Maddux, and Jamie Moyer (hard to believe Moyer is still pitching in the majors!) all notched wins in May that month and were supported by some powerful bats, most notably right fielder Andre “Hawk” Dawson.

Dawson, at this point a ten year veteran in the major leagues, was starting to come into his own as a player. He had some good years previously in Montreal – including 1983 when he recorded 189 hits and a .299 batting average – and, of course, his first season in the majors when he earned the rookie of the year award. But 1987 was Dawson’s year. He was the undeniable leader of the Cubs’ offense. During the Cubs best month of the 1987 season – two days after their final day in first place – Dawson was doing everything he could to spur his team to victory. Trailing the Atlanta Braves by two runs in the bottom of the ninth, Dawson unloaded on a Gene Garber fastball, scoring fellow outfielder Jerry Mumphrey to tie the game at six and force extra innings – a game the Cubs went on to win.

Hawk repeatedly performed heroics for the Cubs throughout the 1987 season, but to no avail. The Cubs ended their 1987 campaign in early October with a disappointing 76-85 record, 18.5 games out of first place.

Dawson, however, was named baseball’s Most Valuable Player. Though the team that went on to win the World Series that season – the Minnesota Twins – also had a fair share of successful players, the MVP award went to Dawson, a player from a losing team well out of the playoff hunt. His statistics were great. A league leading 49 home runs and a league leading 137 runs batted in. He slugged 178 hits, stole 11 bases, hit .287 and led the National League in total bases. A fantastic year compared against any other.

However, the question begs now as it did then – if Dawson is SO VALUABLE, why was he unable to spur his team into the playoffs?

Fortunately, The Sports Debates exists! Today’s debate question: Should a good player from a lousy team be named the league’s most valuable player?

Bleacher Fan will argue no, a player – no matter how talented and accomplished – should not be named the most valuable in the league while Loyal Homer will argue that value knows no bounds or limits and if a player earns the title, that is okay.

While I am partial to my Cubs, I have no preconceived notions of how this debate should end. I wish you both luck. Play ball!

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The Pedro Martinez in Philadelphia Debate – He’s not The Pedro of Old… and That’s Okay!

July 23, 2009

Read the debate intro and Sports Geek’s argument that the signing of Pedro is not a move for the Phillies .



Last week, a deal was finalized to bring Pedro Martinez to the Philadelphia Phillies. Depending on who you ask, the deal is a one year deal for slightly less than $1M, with up to $1.275 million worth of incentives. Bleacher Fan has asked proof as to why signing Pedro is a good move for the Philadelphia Phillies.

No one, not even Pedro, thinks that he is the same pitcher from, say, 1999 when he went 23-4 with a 2.07 ERA with 313 strikeouts. Martinez, who without question is a future Hall of Famer, has a career record of 214-99 with an ERA under three. That’s just ridiculous!

It’s an extremely low risk/high reward move for the Phillies. The Phillies are one of the few teams in today’s baseball market where adding payroll is not really an issue. They are averaging over 44,000 fans per game at hitter friendly (a huge understatement) Citizens Bank Park, so the revenue is constantly flowing.

The Phillies starting rotation, which has pitched much better in the past three weeks, still needed and possibly still needs improvement. Presumed ace Cole Hamels is not close to the pitcher he was last year. Jamie Moyer will be drawing social security soon. Joe Blanton has found out it’s a LOT tougher to pitch in Philadelphia than it is in Oakland. All three of those guys, the supposed top three starters in the rotation, have an ERA over four. Youngster J.A. Happ, who is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA, has been a real bright spot, but he has been floated around in trade rumors (most notably involving Roy Halladay). And Rodrigo Lopez, the fifth starter, has pitched decently but he is just two years removed from Tommy John surgery. As you can tell, there is definitely more than enough room for Don Zimmer’s sparring partner. Surely, the reason Phillies management signed Martinez is because they realized that even though they have an offense loaded with talent, it will be nearly impossible to repeat as champions with the way the starting rotation has pitched to this point in the season.

Martinez pitched in a simulated game on Tuesday. He threw 64 pitches in four innings and struck out six. After the game, Pedro said that he felt “real, real good.” Now, I will agree that I wouldn’t expect him to go out and say “I felt horrible, my arm is sore, and I can’t do it.” But 64 pitches in four innings is a good start, and once that arm is stretched out, maybe he can go six innings and throw 90 pitches. That would be exceptional for the Phillies, and would make this signing an absolute bargain.

Just ask yourself… at this point, what do the Phillies have to lose? Nothing! Yet, they have everything to gain!

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