The MLB Playoffs Home Field Advantage Debate… Proof Is In the Stats

October 11, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Babe Ruthless.

Does home field advantage matter in the MLB playoffs? The Rays and Rangers would argue “absolutely not.” The Giants and Braves would argue “probably not.” But I’d like to use more than anecdotal evidence to make my argument that home field advantage does not really matter in the MLB playoffs.

Sports like football and basketball appears to give the fans a significant amount of influence on the outcome. Many of us have seen occasions in a football or basketball game where noise generated by the fans in attendance directly affected play on the field or the court. In football, crowd noise can affect anything from the ability of the offense to hear the quarterback’s audible to the ability of the defense to communicate. In basketball, the crowd noise can often be quite personal due to the proximity of the fans to the court. Many players are affected by hearing all sorts of unspeakable things yelled in their ears at close proximity and high volume. If somebody was shrieking in your ear, would your thought processes – let alone your jump shot – be totally normal?

Baseball, however, doesn’t seem to be as directly influenced by crowd noise. Well beyond the anecdotal evidence of the first several MLB playoff games, baseball does not have well-defined times in the game where nearly everyone in the crowd knows, “If I cheer now it could have a direct impact on the game.”

Sure, when the opposing team is down to its last strike the fans of the home team are screaming their head off. But, in reality, what impact does that have? Does the cheering make it difficult for the home team pitcher to focus on the pitch he needs to throw to get the hitter out? Does it impact the hitter at the plate? Does it impact both the pitcher and batter to some extent? It’s difficult to tell. I’m sure it gives the home team players warm fuzzies to hear fans screaming their head off, but does it really help? I wasn’t sure, but while I was researching this article I was thinking, “Eouldn’t it be great if someone did a study on this so that I could present empirical evidence that home field advantage in baseball doesn’t matter?”

As it turns out, my prayers were answered.

I found a blog post on improvementguru.com that cited writings by Dr. Ray Stefani of California State University. Dr. Stefani’s work expressed home field advantage as a percentage arrived at by subtracting home losses from home wins and dividing that number by total games. Based on that calculation, Major League Baseball finished dead last. Basically, according to Dr. Stefani’s research, there is no sport where home field advantage matters less than Major League Baseball. I recommend a visit to improvementguru.com to read the complete post – it’s interesting.

Basically, I am not sure I can provide a more compelling argument than Dr. Stefani’s statistical analysis. I can tell you that the Twins lost their first two at home, that the Giants split their home games, that the Rays lost their two home games, and that the Rangers lost their two home games. While that may be compelling to some, it is just a snapshot of a few days of baseball. For a game in love with statistics and history, isn’t it fitting that a historical, statistical analysis shows that it doesn’t really matter where a MLB playoff game is played?

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The 2010 Best Divisional NFL Playoff Game Debate – Colts Welcome Baltimore to Indy

January 16, 2010

Read the argument from Sports Geek.



I said in last Friday’s debate how much I love NFL Wild card weekend. I expressed some doubt that the Patriots would be able to beat the Ravens and I was correct in expressing that doubt, though I did not expect that whipping. But as much as I love the wild card weekend, I love the divisional round of the NFL playoffs even more. The four teams that achieved byes in the first round are now in action, and it is time to get serious. Obviously, the showdown between the Vikings and Cowboys is getting a lot of looks. I will be watching that, obviously, and I am sure FOX will be heavily hyping the series premiere of Human Target and the season premiere of 24… both of which I will be watching. But the best game takes place in primetime Saturday as the Indianapolis Colts play host to the suddenly hot Baltimore Ravens.

As I stated, it was an absolute whipping in Foxboro last week. Watching that game unfold, it became increasingly clear to me that the Ravens were playing with a tremendous amount of confidence. In using one of the most overused “cool” words in today’s society, the Ravens had that “swagger.” If you do not think so, just watch how Ray Lewis acts on the field, and you tell me what you think. The Ravens defense was flying to the ball last week, as evident by the three interceptions by Tom Brady. In fact, it is not just Brady the Ravens defense has been “picking” on lately. The Ravens have caused 25 turnovers in the past nine games. If the Ravens can control the ball on offense with an increasingly strong rushing attack led by Ray Rice, then Baltimore can win this game. I know the Ravens are around a touchdown underdog, but to me, a Ravens win would not be THAT big of an upset.

The Colts come into this weekend with more pressure than any other team in the playoffs. With all the hoopla surrounding the decision to essentially sit the starters the last two games of the regular season, the Colts had to have known the heat would be turned up on them. Everyone associated with the team stated that they were concerned with winning the Super Bowl and not achieving regular season perfection. Well that Super Bowl journey begins Saturday night.

These two teams faced off in Indianapolis back in Week 11, with the Colts coming out on top 17-15. It was a game the Ravens definitely felt got away. You may recall that the Ravens lost a close regular season game to the Patriots, and we all saw how that rematch turned out last week. The Colts are well-rested for sure, and it will be fascinating to me to see if they come out rusty or rested. Every team that has a first round bye battles that issue every year. But let’s face it… many of the Colts starters have not played a full game in a month. Will that be an advantage or a disadvantage?

A Ravens win would not be shocking, but neither would a Colts convincing win. Tune in Saturday night to see which one it is.

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The Best Game of THIS Weekend Debate – A Clash of Titans in N’Awlins

November 26, 2009

Read the arguments from Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek.



Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I hope you are enjoying your holiday with your family and friends (Editor’s note: and The Sports Debates!). If you’re like my family you stuff your face with turkey and all the fixings, then you kick back and watch football. Maybe you’ll enjoy today’s Packers-Lions game, or perhaps the mid-afternoon game between the Raiders and Cowboys. I am personally going to enjoy tonight’s game between the Giants and Broncos because it has massive playoff implications for both teams. However, I am looking further into the weekend to find the best game. In fact, I am going all the way to Monday night, when the Patriots travel to New Orleans to take on the undefeated Saints.

I know the Patriots (7-3) are coming off a win over the Jets last week in which they played pretty well. I had a chance to watch a good bit of that game. Wes Welker, who has 79 catches for 854 yards and four touchdowns, is quietly having a phenomenal year, a fact I did not really realize until last week. But I think we can all agree that Bill Belichick’s reputation took a serious hit in Indianapolis two weeks ago with the fourth down gamble. The Patriots and the coach need this game to get some swagger back, and beating the undefeated Saints would go a long way. Not to mention the Patriots are currently fighting the Chargers and Bengals for the number two seed in the AFC, a position that would give the winner a first round bye and at least one home playoff game. We all know how critical that is during January… who wants to go to Foxboro in January to play in those conditions?

The real focus on this game, however, is on the Saints. The buzz for this game has been building for weeks. The Saints have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders of late like earlier in the season. But, at 10-0 it is hard to be too critical. Either way, the Saints are still averaging a robust 36.9 points per game. Looking at the schedule, the Patriots game also represents one of the last remaining hurdles for the Saints to clear to make a run at a 16-0 finish to the season. Yes, they still have to host the Cowboys in December and they still have a possible tough game in Atlanta but the combined won-loss record of their opponents after the Patriots is 20-30 (with the Cowboys being the only team yet to face the Saints with a winning record). What is cool about this season so far is that there is a decent shot that both the Colts and Saints finish 16-0, two years after the Patriots finished the regular season undefeated. Wouldn’t that be something? It is something to keep an eye on as the season comes down the stretch.

For this week, I am focusing on the Patriots and Saints. It should be a highly entertaining game. Remember that it is on Monday night, so expect the hype to be monumental over the coming days, especially if you watch a certain network. The Superdome is sure to be rocking!!

In the meantime, Happy Thanksgiving!

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The Best Game of THIS Weekend Debate – Patriots and Colts Battle Again

November 13, 2009

Read the arguments from Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek about which games they believe are the best of THIS weekend.

We are over halfway through the NFL regular season, and we are, sadly, closing in on the end of the college football season, too. We just kicked off the season the other day, right? Wow, it always flies by! Nevertheless, we enter this weekend with some interesting NFL matchups. After looking at the schedule, we all know what the best game of the weekend is and I was not about to skip it. The undefeated Indianapolis Colts welcome the New England Patriots to town. Is it just me, or does this game always seem to pop up on the schedule? This is the 14th time these two teams have met (including three times in the playoffs). The Patriots have won eight of 13, but the Colts have four out of the past five. It is without a doubt the best NFL rivalry of this decade.

As always, it is a big game. The Colts come into the game undefeated at 8-0, though they have been tested the past two weeks against the San Francisco 49ers and the Houston Texans. Peyton Manning, once again, is having an MVP caliber season. Through eight games, he has thrown for 2,545 yards and 16 touchdowns. I thought he might have somewhat of a down season, for his standards anyway since he no longer has Marvin Harrison to throw to. Add in the fact that the other starting receiver, Anthony Gonzalez, has not played since week one, and there is a recipe for inconsistency at the wide receiver position. But guys like rookie Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have picked up the slack, combining for 55 catches and six touchdowns. Head coach Jim Caldwell has done a magnificent job of picking up right where Tony Dungy left off.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are who we thought they were. The Patriots come into this matchup with a 6-2 overall record. New England has had its share of close games, too. Tom Brady, after a slow start, has picked up the pace and thrown for nearly 2,400 yards and 16 touchdowns. The usual suspects are still there at wide receivers with Randy Moss and Wes Welker having solid seasons. Remember when Moss was considered a bad seed? That seems like such a long time ago now! The offense as a whole is third in the league and the defense quietly is the second ranked defense right now.

New England needs this game to send a message to the Colts that they are still a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. It will also keep the Patriots alive in the battle for home field advantage in the AFC, which is very important in January… especially if these two teams are to get together again. Indianapolis needs this game to distance itself overall by three games over the Patriots. The Colts most definitely do not want to go to Foxboro in January, having been there and done that and knowing they do not want to do it again! It is quite a bit warmer at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Overall, I am definitely looking forward to this game. It is a Sunday night NBC matchup so we will all be able to watch it. It should be another classic in a long line of great games in this rivalry.

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The Future of the Home Field Advantage Debate – Home is Where the Heart REALLY Is

August 26, 2009

Read the debate intro and read Bleacher Fan’s argument that games should move to other venues to bring in more revenue .

If there was ever a debate that fit my persona, this is it. Don’t you agree? My name is Loyal Homer, and I want the games in my home stadium!!! Duh!

Georgia and Florida battle it out in Jacksonville, and major SEC East implications, if not national title implications, are on the table almost every year. The same goes for The Red River Shootout (excuse me, the Red River Rivalry) between Oklahoma and Texas. Increasingly each year, Georgia (possibly because they have lost 16 of the past 19 to the Gators at a “neutral” site) has suggested they would not mind having the game rotating between Athens and Gainesville, just like any other conference game. As a true “Homer” this is the best option to me.

College football is meant to be played on a college campus or at a university’s home stadium. It is not meant to be played at a neutral site. This is not the Super Bowl! Often times, these games have major implications, both nationally and within the conference.

College football is a huge revenue machine not only for the university. Each team represents the city, and often times a small community. Yes, there are some universities – like USC and UCLA – that are located in or around big cities. But, often time’s universities are located in smaller towns. Schools are the bread and butter of what makes these towns relevant. Would anyone know anything about Stillwater, Oklahoma if it weren’t for Oklahoma State? How about Athens, Georgia (University of Georgia)? Gainesville, Florida (University of Florida)? Corvallis, Oregon (Oregon State)? Lubbock, Texas (Texas Tech)? The list goes on and on. These towns somewhat shut down when their teams are playing on Saturdays in the fall in their town. If you are not at the game, you are at a local sports bar watching the game or you are grilling out at a friend’s house with the game on the big screen (just typing this makes me ready for Opening Week!!!!!!!!)

After the game many fans go out to eat with the family to celebrate the big victory. Maybe a group of buddies heads over to High Street after an Ohio State game to discuss the game and have a cold beer. It is that “hometown” feel that you do not necessarily get when playing in a foreign city at a neutral site.

A home site also gives each team a better chance to win, at least every other year. I am not convinced that Florida has a better chance to win the World’s Largest Cocktail Party just because it doesnot have to travel as far. Both teams sleep in foreign beds the night before the same game. I am similarly not convinced Texas has a better chance to defeat Oklahoma just because Austin is closer to Dallas than Norman. What playing at home does do, however, is give each team a significant advantage every other year. When Florida travels to Athens, Georgia has the advantage. Conversely, when Georgia traveled to Gainesville, the Gators have the advantage.

The point is that each team deserves to play in front of its home fans AT home for every home game. Home truly is where the heart is. And the heart of each college football team is at HOME! The hometown deserves it. The hometown needs it. And most especially, Loyal Homer wants it!

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