The Biggest NBA Free Agency Story Debate… A Quick Fall from Grace

July 9, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Sports Geek.

The circus is over! Yes!!! I believe I speak for millions when I say that I am glad the LeBron James saga is over. ESPN may not believe this, but there are other topics going on in the sports world (though I’m not sure they believe that because as I am typing this it’s more LeBron talk on three of the ESPN channels on my satellite system). I expected there to be some backlash from Cleveland fans. Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek had warned me of that. But I have to admit that LeBron James handled this entire situation poorly, and it’s amazing how far he appears to have fallen in the court of public opinion.

I posted on my Facebook page last night that I’m glad I was not on duty as a Cleveland police officer last night. It had to be really rough last night in the Cleveland-Akron area. The city had extra security set up around town and security was even heightened at LeBron’s house. LeBron’s #23 Jerseys were burned. The words “LeBron James” are being lumped together with profanity-laced tirades. Heck, “LeBron James” is now considered profanity. Have you seen owner Dan Gilbert’s open letter to fans? Have you heard his comments in which he throws LeBron under the bus? After reading this letter, and reading his comments, I’ve got to believe that as unpopular as James as in Cleveland today, Gilbert is that popular.

LeBron James was arguably the most popular NBA player P.D. – Pre-Decision. Now, he’s got many fan bases outside of Cleveland upset at him. This was the recruiting process he never went through in high school, and last night was his Signing Day. People used to drool when watching him play. Many were amazed at the trick shots he would often try in practice. I actually have a couple of them Tivoed on my satellite system for my little cousins to watch when they come visit me. Now, at least for the immediate future, he’s coming across as an egotistical jerk through much of the country.

My problem with this whole situation – and I really have no dog in this fight – is how James and his representatives manipulated this entire process. I have no problem whatsoever with him going to Miami. Lord knows the Heat are overwhelming favorite to win the NBA championship next year. But the handling of the whole situation was classless. I remember the beat down Tiger Woods took in some circles for the way he set up his first press conference. He set it up where only certain media members were allowed to be in the room. LeBron has definitely topped his Nike counterpart. The whole “The Decision” infomercial on ESPN last night was a joke. He put this whole ball in motion by going to ESPN with his proposal for “The Decision.” He tried to soften the blow to his image by having the announcement done at a Boys and Girls club. That didn’t work at all. Jim Gray, of all people, performed his initial interview (Editor’s Note: And was PAID by LeBron’s team independently of ESPN.). I knew I heard him as recently as three weeks ago at the U.S. Open for The Golf Channel. Yet, for some reason, he was in Greenwich, Connecticut last night.

At the end of the regular season you could have polled all NBA fans and asked them who their favorite NBA player is. I feel pretty certain that LeBron James would have been the overwhelming winner. If you polled those same fans this morning, I feel even more certain that LeBron James would not be the choice. He may yet win multiple NBA championships and achieve all the fortune and glory he wants. But he has stepped on a lot of toes in the process, and has forever scarred his image.

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Posted by Loyal Homer

The NBA Free Agent Double Standard Debate… We Are All Witnesses… to a Crime

July 8, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Babe Ruthless.

Thank goodness it all ends today!

My office sits right in the heart of Cavalier Country (or perhaps LeBron Land is the more appropriate term), right next door to Quicken Loans Arena on East 9th Street in Downtown Cleveland. Outside of my office window sits one of the hundreds of banners hung all over town to tell LeBron James how much the city of Cleveland loves him. Outside and below my office window for weeks stood groups of people who were literally REQUIRED by their employer to stand, waving similar banners, blowing air horns, and inciting traffic to honk back at them.

Why? As Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports writes, “So that these hard-working people can “beg a diva who doesn’t care about them to accept a $100 million contract.”

Sounds ridiculous, right?! Well, it is.

LeBron James has made a joke of himself (a WEALTHY joke, perhaps, but a joke nonetheless), and a joke of the good people of Cleveland. Whatever his decision, his actions leading up to tonight’s pathetic excuse for a serious announcement will have forever altered the relationship he has with the city he once claimed as his home.

If he leaves, he will join the ranks of Art Modell as one of the most vile, despicable people to have ever associated their name with Cleveland sports. If he stays, the pain and anguish that he put the city through will nevertheless hang like a shadow over the collective hearts of Cavs fans everywhere.

They will forgive him, but they will never forget.

And although this abhorrent display of pompous selfdom has reached a fever pitch since Free Agent season began on July 1, it is actually the culmination of a process that began several years ago.

Do not fool yourself into thinking that this circus developed organically, either. The NBA, and the greater sporting world at large, has actually been little more than pawns in a game that LeBron James and his cohorts around the league began playing more than two years ago. They have manipulated the league and its fans like puppets in a show, all designed to build up towards the climax that will be “The Decision.”

For the past two years LeBron has strutted all over the NBA like a tease on prom night, feigning interest in anyone who would bat an eye in his direction just long enough to get them worked up to a near frenzied state – only to a cold shoulder just at the point where it would make them crazier, rather than turn them off.

He has been very blatant in his intentions, and spoken openly about how excited he was to play the field when the 2010 period of free agency opened. He made it known that he would openly solicit all suitors, getting team officials and fans alike salivating at the possibility of having “The King” grace their own court.

For two years LeBron has dangled his free agency like a carrot on a stick, all for one reason – to inflate his already overinflated value. Unfortunately for everyone who is NOT LeBron James, his strategy worked.

So what did Dwayne Wade, Amar’e Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, and Joe Johnson do? Like a shark smelling blood in the water, they joined in on the fun.

And of course the scavenging media quickly followed. Every tweet from one player to another, every piece of clothing that one of the players wore, and every game played in the city of a prospective future employer became a headline story. And when James, Wade, and Bosh allegedly met for a “summit” (the fact that it was even dubbed a summit is ridiculous) to seriously discuss all options and strategize what would be the best thing for each of them to do, the process which started out as little more than a self-marketing campaign took the plunge into full-fledged collusion!

If this three-ringed extravaganza had been put on by team officials trying actively to recruit LeBron and company, they would have immediately been punished. The NBA prohibits collusion among team officials because they don’t want teams to have the ability of manipulating league conditions to manufacture an unfair advantage over the players or fans.

That rule does not apply to players, though, and so LeBron and his buddies were permitted to run unchecked, and the result was the manipulation of EVERYONE, all for their own selfish gain. It was a vicious cycle that continued to feed itself, ultimately snowballing into one of the most absurd and ridiculous sports spectacles ever.

A pack of free agents, led by LeBron James, was able to completely monopolize the free agency process.

What would have surely been an intense period of contract negotiation instead transformed into a sports version of “The Bachelor.” with the free agents each holding open court to see which teams would jump highest and bend farthest to give all they had.

Teams cut their own throats for two full seasons, all on the promise that they would be “allowed” to talk to James, Wade, and the other free agents. Fans across the country had to endure frustration, grief, and anguish, all on the hope that it would be worth it after July 2010.

The problem is that only one team can sign LeBron James and/or Dwayne Wade, so what about those other teams? The New Jersey Nets and New York Knicks, for example, had dumped every possible contract they could to make as much cap room available as possible. If they should fail to land any of the marquis free agents (Amar’e Stoudemire will be playing in the Big Apple, but by himself that is small consolation) the teams will both be hamstrung for the NEXT three to five years, after having willingly committed suicide over past seasons.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are another organization completely crippled by this power heist the players have committed. LeBron James had worked the system so much in his favor that the Cavaliers literally NEED him to sign with them. They had invested so much time and money into supporting him that if he leaves, the team will be crippled. They will have no means to begin the rebuilding process, and would simply be cast aside like a used up husk, all because LeBron James no longer found value in their organization.

What will happen to the Cavs?

When the curtain falls on this Shakespearean tragedy, many teams will be left in utter ruin, all so that four or five free agents could get maximum contract offers (AND maximum exposure). They have hijacked the entire NBA, and forever altered the course of professional basketball.

If the NBA wishes to regain ANY control over the situation to prevent this from ever happening again, the league needs to impose the same restrictions on free agents as it does on team executives. The “business” of basketball should play out in a business-like fashion, with the same rules applying to both sides of the bargaining table. Without that EQUAL responsibility, you end up with what we are “Witnessing” today, which is a one-sided free-for-all, where the whims and egos of a few can assume far too much control over the many.

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The Getting LeBron James Debate… Show Me the Money

June 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Sports Geek.

The future of LeBron James is a topic we have debated regularly on this site. Our most recent edition debated the team that would provide the best fit for LeBron.

When the city of Cleveland was brought into the conversation, Sports Geek wrote about the various business aspects of why LeBron should stay in Cleveland, and pointing them all back to one single point – Cleveland gives LeBron the best chance to win a championship.

Obviously, that statement is debatable (especially in light of the latest rumors that Miami could be poised to sign Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, AND LeBron). What is not debatable, however, and what ultimately leaves the city of Cleveland in the absolute BEST position to keep LeBron is this: No other team can offer LeBron James the long term salary that the Cavaliers can.

I know that LeBron talks about wanting to play in a city that gives him the best opportunity to win a championship, but every single team in the NBA can make an attempt at that argument. What those teams cannot do is pay him.

LeBron James could make as much as $30M EXTRA by staying in Cleveland. For him to leave the Cavaliers and play somewhere else, he would essentially be PAYING $30M just for what he PERCEIVES as a better opportunity to win a championship.

Is LeBron James at a point in his career where he is so DESPERATE for a championship that he would actually sacrifice $30M that was on the table to get it? I don’t think so.

If we are still having this conversation in another ten years, and LeBron STILL has not won a championship, then I think his level of desperation would put him in the mindset that sacrificing money for the legacy of a ring would be worth it.

That is not the case today.

LeBron James is only 25-years old, and is the most talented player in the NBA. He has won back-to-back league MVP awards, and no matter where he ends up playing basketball, that team will be a postseason threat.<br.

There can be no denying that LeBron James has a very bright basketball future STILL ahead of him, and that he will remain in contention to win a championship every single season of his career no matter WHAT jersey he wears. Time is not yet running out for LeBron, and he knows that.

While he may be hungry to win that first championship, it is a mistake to classify him as desperate.

As much as LeBron talks about wanting to win a championship, or loyalty, or any of that other fluff, his motivating factor is and always has been his ego (I don’t mean to imply any negative connotation from that). As with all of us, LeBron is going to make the decision that best serves him. Every choice he makes will be made to provide maximum boost to his already well-established legacy.

While he has publicly stated a desire to win a championship, he has ALSO publicly stated that he wants to be a billionaire athlete, and that comes only one way – making as much money as possible, as quickly as possible.

For LeBron James, there is only ONE team in the NBA that gives him the opportunity to meet BOTH of those goals – the Cleveland Cavaliers.

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The Overshadowing the NBA Finals Debate – Letting Tomorrow Worry About Itself

June 15, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer.

This is a very exciting time for the NBA!

Everyone has been talking about this upcoming season of free agency for a long time, now, and rightfully so. It will likely set the course of the NBA for the next three to five years.

The whole world is waiting to find out where LeBron James will sign on to play basketball. Once that question has officially been answered, the rest of the dominos will fall quickly, and many team rosters will be completely overhauled. Some teams have literally spent years preparing for the possibility of wooing LeBron, or one of the many other elite free agents who will be available, and when the dust settles, the face of the NBA could look entirely different than it does today.

But has the talk of free agency overshadowed the NBA Finals? Absolutely not, and the reason for this is simple – the drama of speculating about what may happen pales in comparison to the drama of what is taking place TODAY on the NBA court, a fact supported both by the media and the fans.

No one is talking TODAY about Lebron James.

From a media perspective, every sports outlet in the nation is focusing on one thing – which team will win game six of the NBA Finals? Don’t believe me? Check it out… here are the links to the NBA pages for ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, and NBA.com. Every single cover story is about the same thing – game six.

As far as the fans are concerned, TV ratings for the NBA Finals have all INCREASED this year. Game one of the series actually featured a 20 percent INCREASE in viewership over the numbers from last season’s game one, sparking a trend that has continued throughout the entire series. In fact, game five of this series actually has posted the highest TV ratings of any single NBA Finals game in more than half a decade (and that INCLUDES the 2007 NBA Finals between these same two teams).

Interest in the NBA Finals has not been higher than it is right now for a very long time.

If anything, all of the free agency talk has actually enhanced, rather than overshadowed, the Finals by generating ongoing interest in the NBA overall.

To begin with, this NBA Finals feature the latest installment of the undeniable best rivalry in the NBA, as the league’s two most storied franchises are once again battling it out on a championship stage in yet another very competitive Finals series.

This season features the 12th time these two teams have faced each other in the NBA Finals, and marks the tenth time the series has gone to at least six games. And although the Celtics hold a staggering lead in the head-to-head department, there is no denying this rivalry continues to be the most intense and exciting as there has ever been in all of basketball, and that the 2010 matchup is worthy of addition to this already storied legacy.

On one hand, you have the Los Angeles Lakers, led by the top player in the game today, Kobe Bryant. The Lakers, who are defending champions, have played as one of the top teams in the league all season long. They are coached by Phil Jackson, who is arguably the best coach in NBA history (with the only possible exception being the Celtics’ own former head coach, Red Auerbach), who could claim his 11th NBA championship (I wonder if they make championship toe-rings), should the Lakers prove successful.

On the other are the Boston Celtics reached the Finals, seemingly against the odds, by playing as the best team of the 2010 postseason. No team had a more difficult road to the Finals since the team first had to get past the Cleveland Cavaliers and then Orlando Magic (the two teams BELIEVED to be the best in the Eastern Conference), all just for the CHANCE to face the Lakers.

There is just no way that rumors about where guys like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh might play could compare with drama like that. And while stories about these players may surface and capture a headline or two, those headlines are very quickly trumped by the stories about something much more relevant to the game of basketball TODAY – The NBA Finals.

While people may be excited about the intrigue and suspense surrounding the upcoming period of free agency, the drama and intrigue of awarding a championship will ALWAYS supersede it. The question that is most burning on the minds of NBA fans today is, “Who will be the champions?” Only AFTER that question is answered will people FULLY focus on the question, “Where will LeBron play?”

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The Best LeBron Destination Debate… I Love L.A.

May 24, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Sports Geek and Loyal Homer.

Where should LeBron play basketball?

This is a question that has intrigued sports writers and analysts for the past several years, and has haunted Cleveland Cavaliers fans since the opening tipoff of the season six months ago.

Yes, Cleveland can offer LeBron the money that other teams cannot, but what they can no longer offer him is an opportunity to establish and define his legacy.

LeBron James is not in competition with guys like Dwayne Wade and Carmelo Anthony. Instead, he is in competition with the legacies of guys like Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson. At the end of his career, the measure of LeBron’s success will not be WHAT he accomplished, but instead HOW his accomplishments match up against those of the other ‘greats’ that have played the game.

And as it stands today, his accomplishments do not hold a candle to the greats.

Simply winning a championship or two will not be enough to earn him consideration among the ranks of Jordan and Magic, either. What LeBron must do is to first establish himself as the premier player in the game today, and that can only be done by going THROUGH one person – Kobe Bryant.

Over the course of his career, Bryant has already won four rings, while LeBron has none for himself. So how can LeBron be considered one of the greatest players of all time if he is struggling even to establish himself as the greatest player TODAY?

For the last seven years, we have been left only to speculate who is better between Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, and with four rings, Kobe clearly holds the edge. And unfortunately for LeBron, there has been a lack of any DIRECT comparison between the two, because they have met on the hardwood as opponents only twice each season. As long as that trend continues, LeBron will NEVER catch Kobe.

In order for LeBron to start chipping away at that gap, he must get on the court and actually play AGAINST Kobe more than just twice each year. That is the only way that LeBron can begin to establish himself as a better player than Kobe.

Enter the Los Angeles Clippers.

By signing with the Clippers, LeBron James would be able to share the SPOTLIGHT with Kobe Bryant without having to share SHOTS and PLAYING TIME, and a rivalry that already exists on paper would literally EXPLODE on the court and across the city of Los Angeles.

What was once a town owned by Kobe would be transformed into a battleground that regularly pitted the games two best players today against each other on a shared home court, creating an epic rivalry that would help define the legacies of BOTH players.

Additionally, the Clippers possess enough talent (and cap room) on their team that LeBron could easily turn them into perennial playoff contenders (something he has already proven he can do in Cleveland). With guys like Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon, as well as an upcoming top-ten draft pick, there is a lot of potential in Los Angeles’ OTHER team to give the LeBron a solid supporting cast for MANY years to come. When you add to that youth the established talent of players like Baron Davis and Chris Kaman (who is fresh off of his first All Star appearance), the Clippers + LeBron James could very quickly find themselves in a position to give the Lakers a real run for their money.

Living in L.A. would also help LeBron pursue his other interest, being a big-time celebrity. It sure will be easier to make movies if you don’t have to commute back and forth from Cleveland during filming!

If LeBron wants to be remembered as the greatest player of all time, he must first prove that he is the greatest player today. The only way he can accomplish that feat is by proving it on the court against Kobe Bryant. Since it seems unlikely that will ever happen as long as LeBron calls himself a Cavalier, he should follow the lead of Billy Joel’s old friend who used to be real close – Close your shop, sell your house, and buy a ticket to the west coast! Everyone wants to see your routine in L.A.!

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The Lebron James Staying in Cleveland Debate – The King Is Leaving Cleveland By Way Of ‘Ferry’

August 4, 2009

Read the debate intro and Sports Geek’s argument that LeBron James should stay in Cleveland.



Ladies and Gentlemen, the year of LeBron James has officially begun.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have kicked off this auspicious celebration by offering LeBron a contract extension. While the particulars of the offer are unclear (it is believed that the offer was for an additional three years), we can all rest assured that we will be hearing about this – and EVERY – offer LeBron will receive for the foreseeable future!

The good news for Cleveland fans? Although I find it HIGHLY unlikely that James accepts this offer, Cleveland general manager Danny Ferry and the Cavaliers will not go down without a fight. This is merely the first of what will be many attempts to convince the reigning MVP to stay in Cleveland. Cavs fans can at least sleep at night knowing that Ferry and team owner Dan Gilbert’s highest priority is to keep King James among his hometown fans for many years to come.

The bad news? It will still not be enough. The Cavaliers will be able to match any kind of offer that LeBron receives EXCEPT the one that matters most. The REAL reason why LeBron should skip town and head to greener pastures is because Danny Ferry will NEVER be able to build a championship team in Cleveland.

James is already an international superstar. He is already the highest paid athlete (including endorsements) in the NBA, has been named MVP, has played in multiple All-Star Games, and has represented his country in multiple Olympic Games. He doesn’t need to leave Cleveland to get any of those things, because he has already accomplished them WITH Cleveland. The one thing that he is not, though, is a champion.

Since joining Cleveland five years ago, Ferry has been criticized for an inability to lock-up “major” deals. In fact, it took him three seasons to make any kind of a serious move towards improving his organization, and that came in the form of a three-team trade which brought in center Ben Wallace, forward Wally Szczerbiak, guard Delonte West, and forward Joe Smith to the Cavs. In the season-and-a-half since those four joined the team the Cavs failed to reach the NBA Finals, Wallace was traded away, Szczerbiak’s contract is not being renewed, and the only reason Joe Smith (who was traded away last year) ended up in a Cleveland uniform at the end of last season was because the Cavs had a serious injury problem and needed fresh meat on the court. So much for improving the quality of the team with that transaction!

The other “big” trade Ferry put together was to bring Shaquille O’Neal to Cleveland, but it appears that deal was a couple of months too late. If he had been able to make this deal happen at the trade deadline during the season – when it first came up – it may have been enough to put the Cavs back in the Finals. However, Ferry could not get the deal done when it mattered most, and this comes off as too little too late.

With age and injury concerns, I have to question whether this deal was more about bringing a high-profile player to Cleveland than it was about bringing viable talent to the team. Sure, Shaq WAS a championship-caliber player. But, if he stays healthy (and that’s a big ‘IF’), his age still only gives him two more years at best where he will provide any kind of real impact at all.

Then you have the Anderson Varejao deal. At arguably the most critical time for the Cavaliers organization, the time when they need to prove to LeBron that they CAN put a championship team together, Ferry signs foward Anderson Varejao to one of the most absurd and laughable contracts I have ever heard of. I still cannot figure out what Ferry was thinking when he offered a six-year deal – worth as much as $50M – to a bench player with a reputation as a ‘flopper’ and only averages 8.6 points and less than one block per game. I guess that after failing to land Ron Artest, Trevor Ariza, Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, Ferry panicked and wanted to make it look like he was doing SOMETHING for the team.

Now, compare those moves to Ferry’s counterpart in Boston, Danny Ainge, who brought Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett into the Celtics in support of Paul Pierce. The result – Boston wins the NBA Championship. Or you can look at Mitch Kupchak, who managed to bring Pau Gasol to the Lakers. What happened next? The Lakers reach the NBA Finals that year (only to lose to Ainge’s Celtics), and they WIN the Finals the following year. THOSE are examples of REAL championship transactions.

Danny Ferry has proven time and again that he cannot pull the right strings to make Cleveland a championship team. If LeBron really wants to be called a champion one day, then he should get as far away from Danny Ferry as possible, and fast!

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The NBA “Too Soon To Sign” – I Know This Is Cliché, But…

July 8, 2009

Read the debate intro and Sports Geek’s argument that signing players without a coach is not smart.



“When fate hands us a lemon, let’s try to make lemonade.” – Dale Carnegie

“Desperate times call for desperate measures.” – Anonymous

“If you want the rainbow, you’ve gotta put up with the rain.” Do you know which philosopher said that? Dolly Parton, and people say she’s just a big pair of… never mind, you get the point!

These quotes all have one thing in common – they all talk about how people need to make the best out of a bad situation. That’s exactly what Detroit Pistons General Manager Joe Dumars has done by signing free agents Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

But first, let’s play a game…

Imagine that you are 16-years-old. You don’t have your driver’s license YET, but your test is next week. As you are studying for your test you come across an ad for the “perfect” car. It’s in your price range and has all the features you are looking for.

The problem is that you’ve heard your neighbor talking about that same car, and they already have their license. What do you do? Do you let the car go because you don’t have your license yet, or do you still buy the car WITHOUT the license, knowing you WILL have it sometime next week?

I would buy the car, YOU would buy the car, and based on his actions last week, Joe Dumars would buy the car.

Dumars made a decision that some are calling unconventional. He signed Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon as free agents, but was still without a head coach. Some people questioned the decision because they didn’t understand how a team could sign players without knowing who would the coach the team.

I don’t see what the big deal is. Both Gordon and Villanueva are talented scorers, a skill the Pistons need next season considering several expiring contracts which include Rasheed Wallace and Allen Iverson (those two are freeing up nearly $20 million in cap room). Combining inactivity, with need AND available money, would have been as good as suicide.

When free agency opened for the 2009 NBA season, Dumars had to make the most of his coachless situation. To expect Dumars (or ANY general manager) to remain inactive when everyone else in the league is trying to get stronger is just BEGGING for trouble, head coach or not.

Consider that Villanueva was being courted by the Cleveland Cavaliers, who just happen to be the Pistons’ division rivals. If Dumars fails to act just because he doesn’t have a head coach he runs the added risk of seeing him on the opposite side of the court many times throughout the season – and possibly in the postseason. Instead, he stole talent from one division rival (getting Gordon from a still interested Chicago Bulls team) and prevented that talent from going to another. I’d call that a successful move!

The critics (such as Sports Geek) will argue that Dumars is running the risk that Villanueva and Gordon won’t fit into the new coach’s scheme, or that there may be conflict between the eventual coach and players. But, the knowledge of who your head coach is doesn’t mitigate that risk. Coaches and players may or may not get along or fit into a system REGARDLESS of whether or not the coach has been named. Picking players is an inexact science, and general managers have to make the best decision for their team based on the situation in front of them.

For Joe Dumars, the choice was a simple. He could have no head coach AND no free agents, AND lose Wallace and Iverson, AND have unused salary cap room. Or he could have no head coach, BUT bring in two talented free agents to build the organization.

That sounds like a no-brainer to me. Joe Dumars took the desperate measures he had ended up sitting in his new car, sipping lemonade while watching a rainbow!

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The ESPN Channel Change Debate – Mock Drafts are a Mockery

June 19, 2009

Read Loyal Homer and Sports Geek’s opinions.



I really wish that ESPN would quit wasting our time with Mock NFL Drafts.

Sit and analyze the athletes all day long! Project those players who you think have the best chance of competing successfully at the next level. You could even go so far as to speculate whom you think will be drafted #1 overall. After that, though, you are just making stuff up. It’s ALL bogus.

The first mistake made by Mock Draft analysts such as Mel Kiper, Jr., is that they try to make sense out of all the misinformation sent by NFL organizations. Some organizations are very good at keeping their cards close to the chest. These NFL organizations intentionally deceive and misinform in order to leverage any confusion to gain an advantage. Draft strategies are planned and executed in the same way a poker player bluffs, recognizes tells, and engages in guesswork.

Because of this misinformation, each subsequent draft pick becomes exponentially more difficult to predict. It becomes so difficult, in fact, that by the time the top-10 have actually been drafted, each analyst’s Mock Draft sheet is no longer worth the paper on which it’s printed.

Let’s compare the 2009 actual draft results to Mel Kiper, Jr.’s accuracy:

Actual Pick (Kiper’s Pick)

  1. Matthew Stafford (Matthew Stafford – good for you!)
  2. Jason Smith (Jason Smith – 2 for 2… you’re on a roll!)
  3. Tyson Jackson (Aaron Curry – Like Meatloaf said, though, two out of three ain’t bad!)
  4. Aaron Curry (Eugene Monroe – We’re still batting .500… in baseball, that’s legendary!)
  5. Mark Sanchez (B.J. Raji – The wheels are starting to come off…)
  6. Andre Smith (Michael Crabtree – I can’t watch any more…)
  7. Darrius Heyward-Bey (Jeremy Maclin – Kiper’s inner monologue… “I’ve never even HEARD of that guy”)
  8. Eugene Monroe (Mark Sanchez – Knowing you’re wrong before it even happens only makes it worse!)
  9. B.J. Raji (Brian Orapko – OHHH, THE HUMANITY!)
  10. Michael Crabtree (Aaron Maybin – The sound of Taps playing in the distance)

To recap, Mel Kiper, Jr., one of the NFL draft “experts” on ESPN, got only the first two picks correct. He then went OH’fer on the rest of the top 10, scoring a LOUSY 20% accuracy. The shame of this result is that his predictions came AFTER hearing about which players were eligible, and AFTER free-agency. This was his BEST guess, with the BEST information available. Even weather predictions are more accurate than that! I’d almost rather hear what Miss Cleo had to say about the Draft, because she would at least bring incense and trippy music!

These results beg the next question: If the “experts” can be so wrong with the best information available, how on earth can they even assume to have anything worth saying before free-agency, or before the deadline for players to declare their eligibility? Fortunately for sports fans everywhere, ESPN can often be oblivious to the need for accuracy, so they just ignore that fact.

ESPN analyst Todd McShay (whose 2009 top-10 accuracy matched Kiper’s by only predicting the first 2 correct) has actually ALREADY published a Mock Draft for 2010, BEFORE the NFL and NCAA seasons have even BEGUN!

When all is said and done, ESPN invests far too much time and energy in this process – which is a complete waste of time – and somehow feels that they are an authority on the topic. They might as well slap a 1-900 phone number in front of it, because that’s all the REAL value it would ever carry.

I don’t know about you, but at the Casa-Del-Bleacher-Fan, when you hear the TV say “And now, here to talk about his Mock Draft for 2010,” the next thing you hear is… -CLICK-!

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