The Most Valuable Under the Radar NBA Player Debate… Odom Holds the Key

May 19, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek.

Well, I was all set to argue for Vince Carter in today’s debate. And while he still may be a big part of the Eastern Conference Finals as they head to Boston (and we wait until Saturday) for game three, I couldn’t say much for him after he channeled his inner-Nick Anderson and missed key free throws down the stretch in last night’s game. So in a quick change of pace, I’m going to give a look to the riddle that is Lamar Odom and say that he is the most important under the radar player remaining in the NBA playoffs.

No one has really ever questioned Odom’s talent. Combined with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, the Lakers frontline is very tough when it is completely healthy. Together the three of them total nearly 21 feet of height. No one can come close to matching that. But Odom brings more than just a big body.

Odom has frustrated Lakers fans and coaches to no end with his inconsistent play this season. During some games Odom shows why he is one of the best sixth men every season on any team. During other games, he, quite frankly, fails to show up. Before Monday’s game against the Suns Odom averaged only 8.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per game thus far this postseason. That is down slightly from his averages of 10.8 points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game during the regular season. That’s what made Monday’s strong game of 19 points and 19 rebounds so surprising. It even led Suns star Amar’e Stoudamire to say that Odom had a “lucky game” in game one.

For all the talk about Kobe Bryant’s huge game, it was Odom’s game that stood out in the box score to me. Kobe is going to get his points. But for Odom to do what he did by dominating on the glass means the Lakers are still the favorite at this point. The seven offensive rebounds by Odom was definitely an added bonus.

This is exactly the type of performance many have expected of Odom since he entered the league in 1999 (yes, it’s been that long ago). Unfortunately, he was selected by that other team in Los Angeles, and we all know where the story goes from there. He came to the Lakers from the Heat in the Shaquille O’Neal trade. Ever since the trade he has been showing signs of stardom with his athleticism, but that is quickly followed by maddening inconsistency.

Now that all this love is coming Lamar Odom’s way, it’ll be interesting to see how he reacts in game two tonight. Can he duplicate his performance in game one, or will he fall back into the frustrating trap of inconsistency? Whether or not it was a “lucky game” from Odom in game one is up for debate, but he putting up the kind of numbers that will take the Lakers to the NBA Finals if he even comes close to duplicating them during the rest of the postseason.

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The 2009 NBA Finals Debate – Lakers Drown Orlando in 5

June 8, 2009

Please read the site note at the bottom of this post.



Before I even get into the commentary about potential adjustments in the series by the Orlando Magic, or what the Los Angeles Lakers must do to achieve yet another NBA Finals championship, let’s quickly look at raw numbers regarding a team’s ability to come back in a series after building a two game deficit early in an NBA Finals series.

Since the NBA Finals began in 1947 (when the winner got the rather snazzy looking Walter A. Brown trophy), only three teams have surmounted an 0-2 hole. The Boston Celtics did it in 1969, the Portland Trailblazers in 1977, and the Miami Heat three short years ago in 2006. It appears history is wearing yellow and blue to the games, doesn’t it?

In this year’s version of the finals, the Magic have dug themselves a hole by suffering at the hands of the same approach that helped them beat the Cleveland Cavaliers – the 3-point shot. After shooting a lights-out 41% from long range in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Magic are shooting just 33% as a team now. The Magic’s overall shooting percentage has plummeted, too. After shooting 48% from the field in the Conference Finals, they’re shooting just 36% now. Why the sudden drop in numbers?

It wasn’t the layoff between series that cooled the Magic off – it’s simply better defense from the Lakers that’s doing the trick.

The Lakers have decided they have the interior defense to beat Magic center Dwight Howard. Andrew Bynum (7’0”), Pau Gasol (7’0”) and Lamar Odom (6’10”) have combined to play excellent defense on Howard. After averaging over 25 points a game against the Cavs, Howard is down to under 15 versus the Lakers. When the Laker guards come down to double team Howard, they all rotate intelligently to prevent many open 3-point shots, and do a good job at swiping at the ball. Howard is offensively gifted, but he is also offensively immature at times, too. One way the immaturity manifests itself is in how he holds the ball down below his waist when starting his move to the basket. That’s an easy target for quick defenders like guards Trevor Ariza, Derek Fisher who disrupt Howard’s move without completely abandoning their perimeter defensive assignment (like the Cavs recklessly did, time and again).

The Magic’s best offense options all come through Howard, especially when he gets the ball in the low-post and passes back to the perimeter for an open 3-pointer. The Lakers do not always have to double-team Howard, so the passing options aren’t as plentiful for the big center. The Laker big men have also done an excellent job of denying the Howard the ball inside. The Magic can adjust by running the high pick ‘n roll, but the Laker centers are all athletic enough to run with Howard and deny the entry pass, while the Cavs relied on low-post defensive rotation to get in front of Howard (even though it seems like no one told Anderson Varejao that idea).

The Magic have no shot at this series because the Lakers are a more athletic, more consistent team on offense and defense. If you look at the same Conference Finals to NBA Finals statistical comparison I highlighted for the Magic, it’s easy to see the Lakers are consistent. The Lakers have made 46% of their shots in both series, are actually shooting three percentage points worse from long range in the NBA Finals, but are grabbing roughly 45 rebounds a game, nearly an exact match between series.

The Lakers are more experienced, they have a better coach (with shirtsleeves), and they have a superstar who knows how to play in a big series. They have poise. But, most importantly, they have celebrity fans who actually care and also still rock the midriff shirts (if you clicked on that… my apologies). How could a team have more signs that they were set to win it all?

I don’t mean to gloss over the coach thing. If the Lakers win, it’s Phil Jackson’s 10th NBA championship – more than anyone else in the history of the league. So, when comparing coaches, I’ll take the best NBA coach ever over a guy who couldn’t even win the coach of the year award over Mike Brown, who coached the team the Magic smashed in the Conference Finals.

And, Bleacher Fan – there’s a reason Courtney Lee was open for that shot.

I am in no way anointing the Lakers champions right now. But, it’s clear to me that the Magic have dug themselves a hole they aren’t equipped to get out of for a very simple reason: the Lakers are better than they are.

The Lakers win this in 5 games.

Site Note: Don’t forget to read Bleacher Fan’s opening statement, and this debate’s intro.


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