The Michael Crabtree Holdout Leverage Debate – Crabtree MUST Go

September 23, 2009

Read the debate intro and Bleacher Fan’s argument the 49ers should sign Michael Crabtree.

By a show of hands, who here likes rookie contract holdouts? Anyone? Hello? Bueller?

No one likes rookie contract holdouts. That is why many sports fans are celebrating Michael Crabtree’s just desserts (hmmm, tastes bitter). The 49ers drafted him tenth overall in the 2009 NFL Draft, but Crabtree has not signed a contract yet because he does not believe he should be paid like a tenth overall pick. Another receiver was taken before him by the Oakland Raiders at number seven, and Crabtree and his handles simply cannot deal with reality. They are holding out for “first receiver taken in the draft money” instead of “tenth overall selection in the draft” money.

However, Crabtree hard-headed approach to the contract negotiations with his would-be employer is not going well – for Crabtree. He is holding to the belief that since the one billion mock drafts we all see prior to the actual NFL draft he should be paid in the spot he was predicted to be drafted at. It is a completely ridiculous notion, and the 49ers management is not buying at all.

After the 49ers week one victory, the team lowered the offer to the holdout. (Another win in week two will likely lead to another lowered offer.) The more Crabtree holds out, the more value he loses for the team. If I am head coach Mike Singletary right now, there is no way I sign Crabtree. In fact, I push to just release his draft rights. My team has good chemistry and it is getting built upon winning – winning without the holdout prima donna receiver.

Though if anyone can fix Crabtree’s indulgent attitude problems it is probably Singletary, why disrupt a winning team? The coach also must think about his time investment. At this point in the season he is working with an entire team of players who have either gone through rookie mini-camp, all of the OTA’s, training camp where the offense gets installed, the preseason where it gets practiced, and now two games of the real “these games actually count” season. Signing Crabtree now would be forcing a “special player status” into the team dynamic (something Singletary cares about a great deal). He simply has too much to learn right now, and the investment of time and resources to get him up to speed is not worth the return… especially when considering the fact that the team is actually winning!

It is easy to talk about the time and resources problems that Crabtree presents… especially when he is an unproven talent at the professional level. Right now he is just another rookie that thinks he deserves more than everyone else. But he has proven nothing in the NFL, as either a professional person or an athlete.

Crabtree is just another in a long line of prima donna receivers who believes he is better than everyone else in the league. He is a player who sees only his value in his own created context, not what the market or smart people are telling him. The 49ers hard line with Crabtree is absolutely the right move. They owe him nothing. Plus, now they are proving they do not need him on the field, either. The 49ers stand to gain a lot by allowing Crabtree to re-enter the NFL draft in 2010, and it starts with money. In what will likely be an uncapped year, the 49ers will now have extra cash to go after proven players.

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The Michael Crabtree Holdout Leverage Debate – The Saga Continues

September 23, 2009

Read Bleacher Fan’s argument that the 49ers still should sign Crabtree. Read Sports Geek’s argument that the 49ers should let him reenter the draft.

Five months ago, San Francisco 49ers fans were tickled to death because their team had just selected wide receiver Michael Crabtree with the 10th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. When combined with Frank Gore, this up and coming team (who showed promise under new head coach Mike Singletary late last season) might actually make a run at a division title, or at the very least a wild card berth. The 49ers have not made the playoffs since 2002, and their overall record since that time is 32-64 (Ouch!). But for the fans, Crabtree was coming to save the day just like he did in college at Texas Tech.

Something happened, however, to ruin this feel good story – Crabtree refused to sign. Among other things, he feels that he was the best receiver in the draft and deserves more money than what the Oakland Raiders gave Darrius Heyward-Bey, the wide receiver selected ahead of Crabtree at 7th in the draft. Heyward-Bey signed a five-year deal worth up to $38.25M with $23.5M guaranteed. The 49ers, at this point, are not willing to give Crabtree the money he wants.

There are now also reports that the 49ers have filed an official complaint with the NFL that accuses the New York Jets of tampering, but the Jets are denying the allegations.

With everything going on, this has not yet been a distraction to the 49ers who have started the season with two wins, including a road win over the 2008 NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. Folks in the Bay area are starting to get excited about the 49ers again, despite the fact that the 49er offense is anemic without running back Frank Gore. Quarterback Shaun Hill currently sits 28th in the league in passing with 176.5 yards per game, and throwing to guys like Arnaz Battle, Josh Morgan, and an aging Isaac Bruce doesn’t help the passing attack.

What would you do if you were in charge of the San Francisco 49ers organization? Would you keep trying to sign Crabtree, or would you let him walk away and reenter the draft next year? No one is denying his talent and what his impact could possibly mean to the 49ers, but is it too late for the team to get any benefit from signing him this late in the season?

Enter the Sports Debates (cue dramatic theme music)!

Should the 49ers cut their losses and let wide receiver Michael Crabtree reenter the draft?

Sports Geek will argue that they should let him reenter the 2010 draft, while Bleacher Fan will argue that the 49ers should still sign him if at all possible.

The floor is yours! Ready, set, go!

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The ESPN Channel Change Debate – Mock Drafts are a Mockery

June 19, 2009

Read Loyal Homer and Sports Geek’s opinions.



I really wish that ESPN would quit wasting our time with Mock NFL Drafts.

Sit and analyze the athletes all day long! Project those players who you think have the best chance of competing successfully at the next level. You could even go so far as to speculate whom you think will be drafted #1 overall. After that, though, you are just making stuff up. It’s ALL bogus.

The first mistake made by Mock Draft analysts such as Mel Kiper, Jr., is that they try to make sense out of all the misinformation sent by NFL organizations. Some organizations are very good at keeping their cards close to the chest. These NFL organizations intentionally deceive and misinform in order to leverage any confusion to gain an advantage. Draft strategies are planned and executed in the same way a poker player bluffs, recognizes tells, and engages in guesswork.

Because of this misinformation, each subsequent draft pick becomes exponentially more difficult to predict. It becomes so difficult, in fact, that by the time the top-10 have actually been drafted, each analyst’s Mock Draft sheet is no longer worth the paper on which it’s printed.

Let’s compare the 2009 actual draft results to Mel Kiper, Jr.’s accuracy:

Actual Pick (Kiper’s Pick)

  1. Matthew Stafford (Matthew Stafford – good for you!)
  2. Jason Smith (Jason Smith – 2 for 2… you’re on a roll!)
  3. Tyson Jackson (Aaron Curry – Like Meatloaf said, though, two out of three ain’t bad!)
  4. Aaron Curry (Eugene Monroe – We’re still batting .500… in baseball, that’s legendary!)
  5. Mark Sanchez (B.J. Raji – The wheels are starting to come off…)
  6. Andre Smith (Michael Crabtree – I can’t watch any more…)
  7. Darrius Heyward-Bey (Jeremy Maclin – Kiper’s inner monologue… “I’ve never even HEARD of that guy”)
  8. Eugene Monroe (Mark Sanchez – Knowing you’re wrong before it even happens only makes it worse!)
  9. B.J. Raji (Brian Orapko – OHHH, THE HUMANITY!)
  10. Michael Crabtree (Aaron Maybin – The sound of Taps playing in the distance)

To recap, Mel Kiper, Jr., one of the NFL draft “experts” on ESPN, got only the first two picks correct. He then went OH’fer on the rest of the top 10, scoring a LOUSY 20% accuracy. The shame of this result is that his predictions came AFTER hearing about which players were eligible, and AFTER free-agency. This was his BEST guess, with the BEST information available. Even weather predictions are more accurate than that! I’d almost rather hear what Miss Cleo had to say about the Draft, because she would at least bring incense and trippy music!

These results beg the next question: If the “experts” can be so wrong with the best information available, how on earth can they even assume to have anything worth saying before free-agency, or before the deadline for players to declare their eligibility? Fortunately for sports fans everywhere, ESPN can often be oblivious to the need for accuracy, so they just ignore that fact.

ESPN analyst Todd McShay (whose 2009 top-10 accuracy matched Kiper’s by only predicting the first 2 correct) has actually ALREADY published a Mock Draft for 2010, BEFORE the NFL and NCAA seasons have even BEGUN!

When all is said and done, ESPN invests far too much time and energy in this process – which is a complete waste of time – and somehow feels that they are an authority on the topic. They might as well slap a 1-900 phone number in front of it, because that’s all the REAL value it would ever carry.

I don’t know about you, but at the Casa-Del-Bleacher-Fan, when you hear the TV say “And now, here to talk about his Mock Draft for 2010,” the next thing you hear is… -CLICK-!


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