The NFL 2010 Draft Likely Bust Debate… There is No Use Crying Over “Spiller”ed Milk

April 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Sports Geek.

For teams sitting among the top ten picks of the NFL draft each year there are generally two schools of thought when it comes to deciding who to select when the pressure is on and your team is on the clock. Do you take the player who best fits your team’s needs, or do you take the best available player?

While a case can be made for both strategies, I tend to find myself leaning more toward the side of the greatest team need. The notion that certain players are “too good to pass up,” even if you don’t need them, just seems foolish to me. That is like using your rent money to instead pay for a trip to Vegas just because “the deal was too good to pass up.”

Sure, you MIGHT get lucky and win enough to buy a house in the Hamptons, but odds are that by the time the trip is over you will have just wasted a lot of your time and money on flash that brought no real substance to your life.

More often than not, it is better to pay the rent first, THEN think about luxuries like a trip to Vegas. But when the Buffalo Bills selected running back C.J. Spiller as the ninth overall pick in the 2010 draft, it appeared that Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix just could not resist the impulse buy of a perceived “great steal.”

And a luxury is all that Spiller will be for the Bills. With Fred Jackson (over 1,000 yards on the ground last season) and Marshawn Lynch (who WOULD be amazing if he could stay out of trouble) already in the backfield, the Bills now have a very serious logjam at the running back position. Granted, that would be a high-class problem for some teams to have, but when you consider the fact that the Bills essentially have no quarterback and their offensive line couldn’t protect the guy in the pocket even if he WAS Jim Kelly reborn, depth at the running back position should be the LEAST of their concerns. Heck, it’s not even a concern, and THAT’S the concern.

Instead of addressing one of their VERY SERIOUS needs coming out of a disappointing six-win season, the Bills essentially decided that they were okay living in a run-down trailer park, as long as they had three Cadillacs sitting out in the front yard.

Is C.J. Spiller a tremendous athlete with great potential in the NFL? Sure.

Could he be the next Chris Johnson? Of course. But he could also be the next Curtis Enis, and the Bills are in no position to take that gamble right now.

While the Bills sit back and wait for Spiller to hopefully develop into LaDanian Tomlinson, their unimproved 30th-ranked rushing defense will continue to give up more points than their anemic, one-dimensional offense can match.

This creates a no-win situation for the Bills. Failure on the field will speak for itself, but his success will also detract from the team more than it can help it, because it will only come at the expense of an already successful running back (possibly two, if Lynch can keep his head on straight).

Even if Spiller develops into a Pro-Bowl caliber athlete for the Bills, he is ALREADY a draft bust. Not necessarily because he will fail on the field, but instead because he was the wrong choice for a team that will be unable to FULLY maximize his potential. He was not what the Bills needed, nor should he have been what they wanted. He is an unnecessary accessory that will simply distract from the real problems facing the Bills, rather than help to turn them into a legitimate contender in a division that features the Jets, Patriots, AND the Dolphins. He will be unable to solve any of the problems for the Bills, and will therefore ultimately fail to be a real contributor for the team.

I hope C.J. Spiller likes a part-time job on a last place team, because that is exactly who drafted him.

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Posted by Bleacher Fan

The NFL 2010 Draft Likely Bust Debate… Everything’s Bigger in Texas, Even Draft Blunders

April 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek.

“And with the 24th pick of the first round the Dallas Cowboys select… Slow-y McPersonal-Baggage… excuse me, I believe I may have read that incorrectly. I meant to say Dez Bryant.”

While those weren’t exactly the words NFL commissioner Roger Goodell uttered into the microphone, I believe they might as well have been. The Dallas Cowboys traded up to get the embattled former Oklahoma State wide receiver, but the move may have been more about making a splash than anything else. The simple fact that he is a Jerry Jones era acquisition makes me question Bryant’s potential. Additionally, Dez Bryant’s physical game is far from being the complete package as he lacks experience playing in a pro-style offense. Add to that the fact that he comes to Big D with more drama than a Jersey Shore marathon, and we are talking about a potential bust bigger than a Dolly Parton statue the size of Mount Rushmore.

In 2008, Dez Bryant proved that he was a talented receiver racking up 1,480 yards and 19 TDs, but that was then, and this is now. Bryant sat out most of last season with a suspension. A year off can put some rust on the machinery, and his game was far from flawless to begin with. In spite of Dez Bryant’s obviously gifted hands and his nose for the end zone, he lacks serious speed. Scouting reports have criticized Bryant’s lack of burst and deep speed. The NFL is all about speed. It is often said that the NFL is a much faster paced game than college football. I question the ability of Bryant to make the jump to the NFL as a result. On top of that, he has suspect route running. Dez Bryant did not play in a pro style offense in college. All of this means his rookie season will consist of him adjusting to the speed of the game, a different offense, a new playbook, and he will no longer be a big fish in a small pond – even more reason he looks like he will bust as quickly as a dollar store water balloon.

Dallas’ selection of Bryant can be described as a desperate reach at best. Jerry Jones can deny it all he wants, but the Dez Bryant pick was an attempt to make up for passing on Randy Moss. Unfortunately for Jones, until they build a time machine (which undoubtedly he would purchase and hang too low over the playing field at Dallas’ new stadium) he can never undo what was done. Instead his meddling seems to be making it worse. He has chalked up mistake after mistake with his pass catching personnel decisions (i.e. passing on Moss, bringing TO in, letting TO go, and trading for Roy Williams), but this one may take the cake. In an NFL that is increasingly airing things out, teams are feasting on a boomer crop of talent. Teams are signing and trading for difference making wide receivers at will, but Jones still attempted to fulfill Dallas’ need through the draft. While it is easy to say that drafting and developing a wide receiver is cheaper than over paying for an established talent, Big D has the money to do exactly that. At least you know what you are getting at the professional level instead of putting all your eggs in the basket of a player who sat out most of last season. Jones and company are also ignoring the fact that rookie wide receivers face an incredible learning curve in the NFL. This may make things harder on Bryant who will be saddled with huge expectations to perform immediately under the big bright lights in the Lone Star State. Maybe Jerry Jones does believe in him or maybe he just drank too much of Kiper Kool-Aid, but I simply do not believe in the upside of Dez Bryant.

But probably the biggest reason of all Dez Bryant will be a bust is his dramatic antics. Normally one might expect Babe Ruthless to love a notorious figure like Bryant simply because he is so controversial, but there is a big difference between Bryant and other dramatic players that have earned my respect. The difference is proven talent at the professional level. Players like Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinqo can be as crazy as they want and show it on the field and off, but they have earned the right to do so by proving they are better than average. Bryant hasn’t done that, yet more drama surrounds him than a high school cheerleader. These days Bryant is getting more press coverage than Tim Tebow because of Momma-Gate 2010. Stories about Bryant being asked about whether his mother was a prostitute have flooded sports media outlets. While admittedly he is not at fault for creating this commotion, he has not really tried to put an end to it either. Why? Because he’s dramatic. Just look at the whole Neon Deon fiasco. If he had been truthful and followed the rules he might have gotten another shot at winning the Heisman and improving his draft status. Instead the public is subjected to his protest about fairness. And this is the future of the Cowboys? I do not think so. This guy is draft joke fodder of Tim Couch and Akili Smith proportions. He is a mistake and will prove it to the world soon enough.

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Posted by Babe Ruthless

The NFL 2010 Draft Likely Bust Debate… Kareem Jackson is Busting Out

April 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Bleacher Fan.

When first discussing this topic for the Web site, and after explaining to Loyal Homer which type of “bust” we were going to write about, I decided that there are two angles to take on this debate. First is the obvious angle that counters every heap of criticism Bleacher Fan has poured on the head of Tim Tebow thus far (seriously, fellas, get a room). That angle is controversy. Or I could take a more studious approach and do a careful analysis of the players and the various team needs and determine which player is most likely to struggle when the pressure and expectations are ratcheted up under the furious pace of the regular season.

Yep, you guessed it. Sports Geek chose the option with “studious” in it.

The draft is always interesting because the farther down the draft board a player is, the more likely they are not the desired impact player teams seek out. Even if a player is drafted late in the first round, they are no longer the game-changing player that every team entering the draft wants. Instead, they are forecast as solid contributors and probable starters.

So, with those relatively reasonable expectations in mind, it is clear to me that the supposed jewel of the Houston Texas abysmal draft – first round pick and 20th overall, defensive back Kareem Jackson out of Alabama – will be the under the radar bust from the 2010 NFL Draft.

The Texans did have a need at corner with the departure of Dunta Robinson. But, the pressure and expectations that accompany playing cornerback in a division where teams must face the Colts and Peyton Manning twice a season is a great deal to expect of a raw rookie. The raw nature to Jackson’s game is unavoidable. He hails from Alabama, a good team that played few pass happy teams. In short, he simply has not played enough teams against great – or even good – receivers to develop his coverage skills. Plus he entered the draft as a junior. Some may look at that fact as a positive, meaning he has more time to develop. That’s fine, except the NFL is professional football. It’s not a developmental league, it’s a professional league. Learning is for the arena league. The standard for a first round pick must be higher.

Here is an excerpt from the first paragraph of the scouting report on Kareen Jackson:

Jackson isn’t compact or balanced in his drop when asked to play up close to the line of scrimmage. He has a tendency to get too overextended in his base and struggles keeping his feet under him when asked to open his hips and run. He lacks a great first step out of his transition and will allow receivers to get behind him vertically. He isn’t overly physical when asked to press off the line and likes to get his hands on receivers downfield but isn’t a guy who will consistently reroute off the line.

Well, that is not exactly a ringing endorsement for a first round draft pick.

I am not a coach for the Houston Texans, and I cannot presume to understand the reasons why the Texans would grab a player like Jackson at 20 when a guy like Kyle Wilson was still available at 29 to the New York Jets. Here is an excerpt from Wilson’s scouting report, a player who I believe will not be a bust:

Wilson showcases good flexibility and balance in press coverage and has the confidence to play up near the line and to get in the faces of receivers. He looks fluid when asked to turn his hips and run with his man. Wilson does a nice job of staying with receivers and forcing them to widen their downfield patterns toward the sideline.

That’s more like it. Neither player is perfect. Both have flaws. But Jackson is a work in progress at a high pay grade. His draft position and the expectations on him playing against Peyton Manning twice a season will doom him to obscure bust status.

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Posted by Sports Geek

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