The Mock Draft Value Debate Verdict… Stick to Fortune Cookies for Fortune Telling

April 14, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Loyal Homer.

Do you remember the Sesame Street game and corresponding song “One of these things is not like the other things One of these things just doesn’t belong?” I used to LOVE that feature on the show, and am going to give you a challenge á la Sesame Street right now. Which of the following just doesn’t belong?

1) Visiting the Dentist
2) Brussels Sprouts
3) Michael Jordan
4) Mock Drafts

Did you guess “Mock Drafts?” If so, you are the winner!

The quality that visits to the dentist, Brussels sprouts, and Michael Jordan all have (but Mock Drafts lack) is that they are three things that I genuinely despise. Nonetheless, I am able to acknowledge the substantial value they hold. As for Mock Drafts, they are different because I not only dislike them, but I am also unable find any value in them. Congratulations to Loyal Homer for winning this debate.

Going to the dentist, for example, is one of my least favorite things to do. Between the scraping, drilling (although none was necessary on my last visit, thank you very much!), and judgment that I will undoubtedly be subjected to (no I HAVE NOT been flossing regularly, so just BACK OFF with the Grand Inquisition already and let’s get on with the fluoride rinse!), the dentist’s office is one of the few places that I genuinely dread. However, I recognize the fact that proper oral hygiene is very important, and thusly subject myself semi-annually to their pseudo-sadistic rituals. Likewise, the overall health benefits of Brussels sprouts cannot be denied, regardless of my personal distaste for them.

Finally, as a Cleveland Cavaliers’ fan in the late 1980s and early 1990s, there was no person in basketball I hated more than Michael Jordan. Thanks to his regular habit of success at the dream-crushing expense of my beloved Cavs, I was one person who could confidently say that I did NOT want to be “Like Mike.” Once again, my personal disgust for #23 (and #45) does not preclude my ability to recognize the role he played in the NBA. I may not have liked him, but he was clearly of value to the NBA.

With each of those examples, a distinction must be made between the subjectivity of my personal preference, and the objectivity of assessing their very real and genuine value. From that same objective standpoint, Loyal Homer and Babe Ruthless were challenged to demonstrate the value (or lack thereof) from the Mock Draft.

Babe Ruthless claims that the value of Mock Drafts can come from an attempt at bringing order to disorder, and that they serve both the purpose of entertaining and informing. The problem is that Babe Ruthless then refutes his own claims (albeit unintentionally) by making statements that mock drafts are nothing more than educated guesses, and that they make no difference at all when Roger Goodell reads the REAL selections on draft day. To quote Babe Ruthless’ own argument, “What’s the point?”

Loyal Homer further refutes the validity of Mock Drafts by highlighting the fact that they are far too inconsistent (even when provided by the same analyst), and fail to account for draft-day trades, which are a very real part of the draft experience. I agree that it is difficult to predict which teams will pull the trigger on a draft-day trade, but is it any harder than trying to predict which player they will draft if they decide to hold onto their pick? I don’t think so.

This debate leads me to the conclusion that Mock Drafts are to sports what shows like Maury Povich and Jerry Springer are to television. Both are little more than substance-lacking fluff pieces designed for nothing more than the purpose of filling time and space.

If the analysis went no further than a team-by-team breakdown of their upcoming needs and the draftees who would best fit within their organization, I would see immense value. There is nothing wrong with discussing the various talents (and benefits) that particular players can bring around the NFL. Likewise, there is nothing wrong with gauging the likelihood of a player to be drafted in the first round, etc. I cannot see the value, though, in donning Carnac the Magnificent’s turban on the arrogant assumption that you can successfully predict the outcome of a three-day chess match played out by the collective brain-trusts of 32 different professional organizations.

Mock Drafts are not realistic, and the result is that they are not a piece of viable sports analysis.

Today’s debate was brought to you by the number “2” (which is the number of correct picks that most mock drafts will only be able to boast) and the letter “X” (which will be placed next to ALL of the other picks on those same mock drafts).

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The Mock Draft Value Debate

April 13, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Loyal Homer.

It is no secret that my personal opinion of Mock Drafts is not a favorable one.

The plethoric bombardment of guesswork and speculation that is fed to us in heaping spoonfuls by any and every media outlet should be enough to turn anyone off to their nonsensical (and usually errant) projections. Still, they are published with such regularity and given such prominence in the national media that you would think they were actually written by guys named Matthew, Mark, Luke, or John.

And now, a passage from the Book of Mel Kiper, Jr: “Let it be said unto thee that the Lord Goodell hath proclaimed unto me – “With the first pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select Sam Bradford, Quarterback from Oklahoma!” And there was much rejoicing!

But despite all my rantings and ravings about the lack of substance in these Mock Drafts, even I can be found hypocritically dabbling in the subtle art of prescience as I share my own prognostications on the upcoming NFL Draft with anyone who will listen (although in my defense, I did not start my tarot card readings for the 2010 Draft back in May of 2009, Todd McShay).

So what is it about the NFL Draft that drives the analyst’s penchant for attempting clairvoyance? We ALL know that we will be wrong BEFORE the draft even begins, yet we continue to spew our prophesy as though we actually have an inside track to the future and can tell you precisely which athlete will be playing for which team, and why they were selected.

I suppose it is simply the need for all of us to prove that we know what we are talking about. All it takes is for one gem to be pulled out of the piles of misses we toss out, and we begin acting as though we are the smartest people alive. For example, it did not matter that I was successful in predicting only nine of the Sweet Sixteen teams from the 2010 March Madness, because I got Cornell right. I strutted around town for a FULL WEEK singing “I told you so” at the top of my lungs for having predicted their tournament success.

Putting the psychoanalysis to the side, however, there is a more important question with regard to Mock Drafts which is the topic for today’s debate: Is there value in Mock Drafts?

Simply put, are Mock Drafts worth the time needed to create them? Do they serve a REAL purpose, or is it all just a waste of time and effort?

For the answers to those questions I will turn to Babe Ruthless, who believes that there is indeed value in the Mock Draft, and to Loyal Homer, who will argue to the contrary.

It is a Mock Trial of Mock Drafts – let the mockery begin!

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The Mock Draft Value Debate… Mock Draft Mania

April 13, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Loyal Homer.

Life is often unpredictable, and so are sports. If I told you six months ago that Donovan McNabb was going to be traded within the NFC East, Butler would be playing for the NCAA Championship, and Tiger Woods was going to ditch the PGA Tour and lose a large number of endorsement deals you would have thought I was crazy, but that’s exactly how things transpired. No one can predict the future, yet each year fans still seem to have an insatiable drive to study insider information, expert analysis, and of course mock drafts.

Today’s debate attempts to answer the question, are mock drafts valuable? Of course they are. They serve multiple purposes. Mock drafts entertain and inform us. They bring order to disorder. They give us subjects for water cooler discussion, Monday morning quarterbacking, and of course – sports debates.

The problem is there are way too many mock drafts out there and those doing the prognosticating take things way too seriously. Mock drafts seem to be as prevalent as Tiger Woods jokes right now. Everybody seems to have one. Some of them are good, some of them are funny, and some just do not make any sense at all. Between ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo!, and other sports media outlets too numerous to list, someone could easily be overwhelmed by all the research, insider information, and expert analysis.

Mock drafts are a lot like women. No, I don’t mean that all mock drafts are out to take your money and suck the life out of you slowly. I mean that there are different approaches to them. Some guys want to experience as many mock drafts as possible. Some guys focus on one mock draft that they like, know, and trust. Although mock drafts can be confusing and frustrating (not to mention mock drafts are poor drivers… HeyOh!) we still need them.

Sure, mock drafts can make life nerve-racking. As if our blood pressure levels weren’t high enough on draft day – what with the future success of our favorite teams riding on the line and all – we are further stressed out by the non-stop barrage of commentary that seems to contradict every mock draft we have studied. The solution is simple, accept mock drafts and analysis for what they really are – someone’s educated guess.

While it is true that draft rankings are based off of quantifiable statistics and measurable categories (like position need, college success, combine performance, and scouting reports), they are still ultimately opinions. And opinions can be wrong. Just like anything else in life, you can put a lot of stock or very little into an opinion based off of how much you trust the source. Mock drafts are no different. Each year I check out a few, but I usually stick with just one. In the end it makes no difference in the long run because Commissioner Goodell reads the names teams submit to him, not what is listed on a mock draft. So what’s the point?

Mock drafts allow us to control that which we otherwise could not. They give fans temporary resolution between the end of one season and the beginning of the next. When a player retires, gets traded, or leaves via free agency it usually creates a hole on the roster that needs to be addressed. Fans want to know how that team is going to address the need, but there is a long time to wait between the Super Bowl in February and pre-season football in August. That is where mock drafts come in handy.

While there is absolutely no assurance that a team will draft who the experts say they should, fans are often afforded peace of mind knowing that there is a logical solution out there. For example, the Carolina Panthers need to address vacancies at quarterback, defensive line, and wide receiver. As a fan, I get panicky considering what the Panthers will do in the upcoming draft. But with a quick glance at a few mock drafts I have learned that most sources tend to believe Carolina will address needs at wide receiver when their first selection rolls around. While I may not agree with that call I at least know what to expect, even if it is more disappointment (for the love of all that’s right, draft a quarterback!)

It is all really a mental thing. Not to get all psychological on you, but the human brain wants to resolve things. For example, let me demonstrate something I learned in college. If I were to sing, “nuh nuh na na, nuh nuh na na, hey hey hey…” your mind would probably resolve the missing line “goodbye.” I am willing to bet you probably finished the phrase in your mind. Why? Because your brain wants resolution. It is simple human nature. Mock drafts give us the satisfaction of resolution, at least until the draft happens.

In the end, this debate is an open and shut case. Mock drafts have value. Fans may not like that the predictions start rolling before the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl is over, but you do not have to follow each draft. Just check out one or two that you trust a few weeks out from the real deal and you will be happier for it.

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The Mock Draft Value Debate… A Complete Waste of Time

April 13, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Babe Ruthless.

There are some things in life that are a complete waste of time. Sitting in a doctor’s office for hours. Being on hold with a customer service representative. Going to a school board meeting and waiting for big news while the members discussed personnel issues in executive session, only to find out two hours later that they have decided to table the discussion until a later date (this happened to me last night). All of these things are a complete waste of time. But nothing absolutely kills the value of my life more than reading the ENDLESS and USELESS supply of mock drafts out there.

Here’s a perfect example.

One of the Web sites that I visit regularly is the Atlanta-Journal Constitution’s Web site. Over the course of the past two months the Atlanta Falcons’ beat writer, D. Orlando Ledbetter, has provided a mock draft on a weekly basis. I always give it a quick run through, but have never read it in-depth until preparing for this argument. In his mock draft on April 2, appropriately titled Mock Draft 6.0, Ledbetter projected that, among other things, Tim Tebow would be drafted ninth by the Buffalo Bills. Hmmm, I found that interesting at the time. But a week later, in Mock Draft 7.0, he projected that Tebow was not going to be drafted in the first round. He was listed under the “On the Fringe” label. Had Tebow really fallen that far in a week’s time? Maybe he never should have been that high? What did or didn’t he do to take such a nosedive? Heck, perhaps Ledbetter read my argument about Tim Tebow from a couple of weeks ago and was convinced that Tebow is not going to be a good NFL quarterback. Who knows! These are all questions that no one can legitimately answer.

Go to any sports Web site and you are going to find an abundance of “speculative” information. This includes a countless array of mock drafts. I dare you to find two mock drafts out there that are EXACTLY the same. Go ahead. I double dare you!!! If I published my own mock draft, would you read it? You may if you are a frequent visitor (which we hope you are!). But you might not believe a word of it. Why should my version be any better than the other guy’s? Why is it any worse for that matter? It sure isn’t an exact science. It is not even close to Bracketology.

Mock drafts do not take into account that trades may actually happen on draft day. What if St. Louis decides to trade the number one pick to a team that wants to trade up and draft Ndamukong Suh? That has a major trickle down effect because Detroit, with the second pick, is obviously not going to draft Sam Bradford because they already have a young quarterback in Matthew Stafford. What does Detroit do then? Do they trade the pick? Do they take Gerald McCoy? Who knows! It’s a crap shoot!

We all like to read various articles throughout the day to help pass the time at work. You know you have probably read a mock draft from Todd McShay or Mel Kiper, Jr. at some point. I know I have. But that does not mean I believe there is value to a mock draft. I may read about Jesse James’s last fling in The National Enquirer while waiting in line at Wal-Mart, but that doesn’t mean I believe there is value.

Let it be said that this debate is my official mockery of mock drafts!!!

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