The 2010 NFC v. AFC Debate Verdict

January 7, 2011

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Optimist Prime.

Today’s debate attempts to answer a question that is answered in every Super Bowl – which conference reigns supreme?

Loyal Homer took a compelling, albeit obvious, approach to proving that the AFC is the conference most deserving of respect in the 2011 playoff picture. He went with a “numbers don’t lie approach” that showed that the record book clearly favors the AFC. Loyal Homer aptly pointed out that even without the Patriots skewing AFC number and Seattle doing the same for the NFC, the AFC playoff contender’s collective records would still best the NFC by a sizeable margin. Although the NFL is a league of parity these numbers call that understanding into serious doubt. He hammered his point home by calling attention to the fact that interleague play again favors the AFC. Using the age old adage made famous by the greatest professional wrestling legend of all time, the Nature Boy Ric Flair, “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man,” and the stats make it clear that until proven otherwise the AFC is “the man.”

Optimist Prime’s argument was intriguing to say, the very least. After losing some major ground by coming out of the gates conceding the AFC’s dominance in most things statistical, he redeemed himself greatly by appealing not to numbers but gut feelings – a refreshing change from the usual format of TSD debate. Optimist Prime then lobbied hard that the qualitative data, rather than the quantitative, supported the upstart senior circuit in this debate. His approach prompted me to answer the question, “Of the respective playoff teams in each conference, which teams would you not want your favorite team to play?” It was quite a risk basing his entire argument on such a subjective call, but considering the mound of statistical evidence piling up against the NFC, it was a risk he had to make.

Unfortunately for Optimist Prime, big gambles have a way of not always working out. After giving thoughtful consideration to his challenge I still felt that the AFC was the conference to beat, and that’s why Loyal Homer is the winner of this debate. The Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Jets, Ravens and Chiefs are just flat out scarier (and in that order, to boot) playoff contenders. The AFC boasts a killer lineup of dynastic dominance. The top two seeds in the conference – the Patriots and Steelers – have been to the Super Bowl many times, and more often than not have walked away with the trophy held high.

The upstart NFC, however, puts forth a much less impressive lineup on the field, a lineup of teams with a lot of potential, but teams that carry less of an air of intimidation. Honestly, only the NFC teams competing in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs seem to pose any real threat, the Seahawks excluded, of course. The Saints, Eagles, and Packers all possess offenses potent enough to carry them all the way to the Super Bowl, but they would still have to get past the AFC, and I just don’t see that happening.

There are far too many questions surrounding NFC contenders than the AFC powerhouses, questions that Loyal Homer accurately called out. Questions like, “Who will be running the ball for the injury thinned Saints?” “Are the trendy pick Eagles really as tough as they seem, when they were one loss away from being out the playoff picture altogether?” “Can a one dimensional Packers team pick up all their wins on the road possibly make it all the way to a Super Bowl victory?” My gut tells me no, no, and probably not.

While the Super Bowl will have the final say on the matter in the real world, this debate is ruled by speculation of sports fans, and WE believe that the AFC is the conference to beat. So enjoy the victory Loyal Homer, we’ll find out if you really know what you’re talking about in about four weeks.

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The 2010 NFC v. AFC Debate

January 6, 2011

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Optimist Prime.

The 2010-2011 NFL playoffs are upon us, so let the post-season prognostication begin! The AFC is boasting its usual murder’s row of juggernauts, including the Steelers, Colts, and Jets. While Tom Brady and the Patriots have garnered much of the attention as heavy favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end several AFC teams have the potential to be serious contenders and create some epic playoff matchups.

The NFC… well, that’s a different story. The senior conference holds the dubious honor of having the first sub-.500 team win a division, and boast the first team with a losing record since the 1970s to make the playoffs. Despite having several explosive offenses, led by some very exciting players, the lack of any one dominant team has caused many to give the advantage to the AFC before the post-season even starts. It has even prompted one sports writer to appropriately dub the conference, “a five team grab bag.” (Sorry Seattle, I guess a 7–9 record and .438 winning percentage just doesn’t earn as much respect as it used to.)

Judging by the standings and conventional wisdom, it seems the AFC will be better than their NFC counterparts for the upcoming post-season. But, conventional wisdom can sometimes be misleading. With all the parity that the NFL has displayed as of late, you can’t count any team out. The Giants proved that against the nearly perfect Pats just a few seasons ago, which brings us to today’s debate: Which conference will reign supreme during Super Bowl XLV?

Loyal Homer will plead the obvious case for the favored AFC. He will need to do more than just rely on the legacy of the conference’s top teams – like the Patriots and Steelers – and prove that this year’s teams can win the big one.

Optimist Prime, on the other hand, is forced to live up to his name by finding the bright side of being the underdog. To win this debate he will need to do more than rely on the “Any Given Sunday” motto and explain thoroughly how and why the NFC upstarts can pull it off.

In the NFL pos-tseason every team is just one game away from elimination and nothing is certain. To quote a baseball

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The 2010 NFC v. AFC Debate… The AFC Has Too Much Firepower

January 6, 2011

Read the opposing argument from Optimist Prime.

The NFL playoffs begin this Saturday, and that makes Loyal Homer a VERY happy person. I’ll be as happy as Jeff Fisher is that Vince Young is leaving Nashville… and folks, that is happy. There’s just something about the NFL playoffs, and for me it’s been taken to another level since the explosion of fantasy football. You have more invested in each team, and therefore you tend to follow things more closely. That makes the matchups in January much more exciting (except for maybe the New Orleans-Seattle matchup!). Call me a geek, but that’s just me. As I survey the landscape of this year’s field, I feel that New England towers over everyone else. Even Optimist Prime has to see that.

If you look at the record of the six playoff teams in each conference, you will see that the overall record of the teams favors the AFC. The AFC teams have a combined record of 69-27, while the NFC teams have a combined record of 62-34. That’s seven full games better, meaning you could turn the Seahawks into a 13-3 squad (which would be tied for the best record in the NFC) and the AFC would still have a better combined record. Now, suppose you say, “Well, the NFC has the Seahawks so the NFC’s numbers are misleading.” Okay, fine. Let’s do a little elementary math. Let’s take away the best and worst teams from both conferences and see what we get. By taking away the Patriots (14-2), Chiefs or Colts (10-6), Falcons (13-3), and Seahawks (7-9), the record still favors the AFC as they hold a 45-19 record, compared to the 42-22 record of the NFC. So take the “Seahawk Waterdown” theory and let it wash away with a Seattle afternoon rain shower.

The second seed in the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers, quietly coasted to a 12-4 regular season. Think back to week one. Who did they beat? The Atlanta Falcons! And they did it with Dennis Dixon at quarterback. Remember him? There are several inter-conference examples like this. Baltimore defeated New Orleans less than three weeks ago. The Chiefs whipped the Seahawks at Qwest Field in late November.

Even if you think those facts don’t matter come January, look at the teams and see who currently passes “the human eye” test. Who comes in playing well and is healthy? Does anyone in the NFC really scare you? The Falcons are a very good team when playing at home, and lucky for them they have home field advantage. But they have to be one of the most unglamorous 13-3 teams in the history of the league. The Bears get less respect than the Falcons in my opinion, but do you have confidence in Jay Cutler’s ability to have a turnover free game? The Eagles, a sexy pick just a few short weeks ago with the re-emergence of Michael Vick, possibly have peaked too soon. Believe it or not, if the Giants don’t choke against the Eagles in week 15, Philadelphia would be watching the playoffs on television. The Seahawks… Charlie Whitehurst? Next! The Saints literally have to go to the streets to sign a running back after placing two running backs on injured reserve this week. Green Bay comes in arguably as the hottest team in the conference, but is it realistic to expect them to win three straight games on the road with no consistent running game? Haven’t we always been told you have to run the ball to win in January?

Compare all that carnage to the stability of the AFC. The Patriots and Steelers are cruising. The Colts are on fire. The Chiefs quietly won ten games. Baltimore is still Baltimore. And the Jets, who are the biggest question mark with Mark Sanchez’s shoulder, can win anywhere if they get off on the right foot (no pun intended, Rex).

Now, you tell me, Babe Ruthless, who passes the eye test? Look at that, look at the data I presented, and you’ll have your verdict. And if that doesn’t decide it for you, which conference doesn’t have a 7-9 team?

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The 2010 NFC v. AFC Debate… NFC Is Defending, Deeper Conference

January 6, 2011

Read the opposing argument from Loyal Homer.

I have been assigned the noble task of arguing that the NFC is better than the AFC this season as the NFL playoffs dawn. I’d prefer to be a giant slacker and spend a few hundred words telling you that I really have no idea which conference is better and, if you’re really curious which conference is better, the only way to know for sure is to watch the Super Bowl where the two conference champions duke it out. However, I don’t think any of you would appreciate it if I took the easy way out. So, in this article I will lay out the case for why the NFC is better than the AFC this year.

My original intention was to show the NFC’s statistical superiority, so I dutifully set out through the Internets to find statistics to prove my case. The more research I did, though, the more muddled the picture became. My original goal (in order to show the depth of the conference) was to discuss the top ten team statistics in certain categories and show that the NFC controlled those categories. However, any notable statistical category (total offense, total defense, etc.) showed the parity for which the NFL is known. NFC and AFC teams generally split the top ten in a statistical category. Obviously, after that research, my argument strategy had to change.

The more I thought about it, the old axiom, “statistics are for losers” came to mind. If you bend the statistics a certain way you can make nearly any argument about a football team or a group of teams. After talking myself out of a debate strategy, though, I needed to come up with a new one.

After realizing the objective criteria were useless to me, it seemed like a subjective metric was the way to go. The metric I settled on was this – Of the respective playoff teams in each conference, which teams would you not want your favorite team to play? The more I thought about it, the scarier teams are in the NFC this year.

While nobody would deny that New England was outstanding this year and would be a scary playoff draw for anyone, do any of the remaining AFC teams scare you? While the Jets appeared formidable in the pre-season, they have several notable flaws that were exposed during the regular season. Pittsburgh was solid in earning the number two seed in the AFC, but do they scare you with their capabilities?

Beyond those teams we have Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Kansas City. While the Colts certainly passed the eye test the past few years, they would have difficulty passing the eye test this year. In fact, were it not for a Jacksonville implosion down the stretch, the Colts wouldn’t even be in this year’s playoffs. On paper, the AFC is not fielding a formidable bunch in the playoffs this year, even though these should technically be the best six teams in the conference.

On the NFC side, however, there are at least three teams that fall into the category of, “I really don’t want to play them right now” – Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. Atlanta was a quiet 13-3 this year, but nearly unbeatable at home. Green Bay is playing its best football of the year right now and is a prime candidate among the talking heads for “hottest team in the league.” Philadelphia has an absolutely frightening offense that can beat an opponent in any number of ways, and you can rest assured that no defensive coordinator wants to game plan for Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy. Once you get through these three teams you still could run into one of the top defenses in the league with Chicago and the defending Super Bowl champion Saints.

If the playoff teams for each conference are supposed to represent the best that conference has to offer, it seems to me that the NFC was much better and much deeper than the AFC this year. That’s my argument and I’m stickin’ to it.

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