The Does April Really Matter in MLB Debate… April Struggles Can Bring Later Success

Read the opposing argument from and Bleacher Fan.

We’re just over a month into the Major League Baseball season, and some surprises have evolved. The Cleveland Indians have been baseball’s biggest surprise, as through May 2, they lead MLB with an overall record of 19-8, though it’s unclear if anyone in Cleveland (outside of Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek) are paying attention. The Florida Marlins likewise have gotten off to a hot start at 18-9. Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, teams like the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox, teams that were expected to contend for division titles, have gotten off to mediocre starts and are in an early hole in their respective divisions.

Our judge in today’s debate, Sports Geek, has asked us to determine if the month of April is too early to determine the probable success or failure of a team. Sure, we’d love for our favorite team to win 18 games every month. But I say it is way too soon for fans of teams like the Braves, Red Sox – and even the Twins – to panic.

Folks, most teams played around 26 games through April 30, which was this past Saturday. Just 26 games! That’s less than twenty percent of the full 162 game schedule, and far too early for struggling teams to be making changes. You would think the Braves would be concerned about the slow start of Dan Uggla, who has used a recent hot streak to get his average above .200. However, the team and management realize that Uggla is traditionally a slow starter and there’s no way this guy, who has hit at least 30 home runs in four consecutive seasons, won’t rebound and post the same stats he is accustomed to posting. Is that stacked Boston lineup, highlighted by the struggles of Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkillis, really going to hit .245 all year long? Nope! Is Minnesota really going to finish last in the improved AL Central? Not with Joe Mauer coming back!

Let’s take a look at the MLB standings at the end of April 2010. Go ahead and give them a look. The New York Mets lead the NL East over the Washington Nationals. The Padres and Cardinals both led their divisions, as did the Angels. Four out of the six division leaders did not make the playoffs at all. The Mets, Cardinals, and Angels all finished with losing records. The Giants, the eventual World Series winner, trailed the Padres by 7.5 games as late as July 4. I can top that. As late as July 21, the Phillies trailed the division leading Braves by seven games. But energized by the acquisition of Roy Oswalt from Houston, the Phillies went on a tear and won the division by six games, making up an outstanding 13 games in the standings in a little over two months.

Reading that, how can Bleacher Fan say that April is a sign of things to come? I mean, do we really expect Lance Berkman to hit over .400 for most of the year? Keep in mind that this is the guy who struggled offensively in the telephone booth known as Yankee Stadium.

Yeah, it causes less stress when teams get off to good starts. But more so than any other sport, baseball is a marathon, and most definitely not a sprint. So to all the fans in Atlanta, Boston, Minnesota, and even San Francisco (currently sitting at 13-15 with very little offense)… it’s only early May! The end of the regular season is five months away!

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