Read the opposing arguments from Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer.
The New England Patriots’ run of playoff dominance in the modern millennia is something to be marveled. Since 2001, the Pats have won five division titles, four conference titles, and failed to make the playoffs only twice. More impressively, the Patriots have won three Super Bowl’s in just four years, from 2001 to 2004. Time and time again the Patriots continue to exceed expectations. From Tom Brady breaking NFL records to the 16-0 regular season in 2007, New England has rightfully developed a reputation as a nearly unstoppable force in the NFL. Until now.
For the first time in a long while, the Patriots look vulnerable. The offense is starting to show its age, and the defense has undergone drastic personnel changes over the past few years. The schedule is rough and sure to expose weaknesses in a suddenly competitive division. In short, the 2010 Patriots are not the same vaunted team that tossed around the league over the last decade. This season the Patriots have become mortal.
The First Signs of Weakness
For starters, take a look at how New England finished 2009. After winning the AFC East with a 10-6 record the Patriots were absolutely blown out by the Ravens, 33-14 in the first round of the playoffs. Adding insult to injury, the beating took place in Foxboro. Taking nothing away from a very strong Baltimore team, it probably should not have gone down that way.
New England had an experienced corps of veterans and home field advantage. The odds were in their favor, but apparently no one told Ray Rice. On the first play of the game he took the ball 83 yards for a tone-setting score. The Ravens ground attack was so effective that the win was secure despite 34 total passing yards. It was the first home playoff loss for the Pats since 1978, and it likely impacted the psyche of the players. That type of defeat could prove to be a confidence shaker for the coming season and tell tale sign of things to come.
Both Too Old and Too Young
Another hardship the 2010 Pats will have to overcome is Father Time. While the Patriots may be renowned for an ability to involve the entire roster in the offense, there is still a corps of veteran players that anchor the unit, and they are starting to get old. In fact, according to a study by ESPN, the Patriots were the sixth oldest team in the NFL. This could be bad news for a previously high-octane offense. Potentially the most dynamic aspect of the New England offense is the Brady to Moss connection. Both players will start the season at the age of 33. While that doesn’t mean than they are ready for the rest home, it does mean that their upside is probably behind them and they will be playing with bodies that have seen seasons of abuse. I am not prognosticating any dramatic declines, but a subtle reduction in numbers is certainly not out of the question. And Brady and Moss are not alone. Well known members of the offense, including Kevin Faulk (34), Sammy Morris (33), Fred Taylor (34), Alge Crumpler (32), are sure to show signs of age as they move deeper and deeper into their 30s as well. With age comes increased risk of injury and reduced production. Unlike Brett Favre, most players don’t put up career numbers in the later seasons of their career, and age may be a factor that slows the offense in the coming season.
The Rough Road Ahead
Aside from the obligatory two game destruction of the Bills, the Patriots will have a challenging schedule. Previously easy division matchups against New York and Miami have become increasingly more difficult over the past several years. Two games against a young and talented Jets team, which missed the Super Bowl by one game last season, will be no walk in the park this season. Similarly, the Dolphins have an up and coming quarterback in Chad Henne and a legit number one receiver in Brandon Marshall. It seems as though the AFC East has become a tight division overnight.
And the challenges are not limited to division rivals. After a week five bye New England will face a slew of tough teams – specifically the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings. These are formidable teams that can put up huge numbers on any given week. It doesn’t get too easy thereafter, either, because the Pats will have to take on playoff perennials like the Steelers, Colts, and Packers. All three teams have huge offensive potential and a shootout with anyone of them could end poorly for New England because of an average defense. Not only will there be little chance of a repeat of the perfect regular season performance of 2007, there might not even be hope for a playoff spot.
Belichick and the boys could surprise the league again and pull off another outstanding season. They could be fueled by motivation of playing for new deals, as both Brady and Moss enter contract years. They could be fueled by the rivalry, seeing how Jets’ coach Rex Ryan and Tom Brady have been having at it. Or they could simply run out of gas. My gut, and the facts, tell me it will be the latter.
