Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Loyal Homer.
This is simple. Can anyone honestly say they proclaimed at the beginning of the season that the San Diego Padres would be one of THE elite teams to beat in the National League?
Sure, the Atlanta Braves were not presumed to be the best team in the N.L., but the pitching was strong and the veteran leadership made a winning record likely. After a team has a winning record it always seems as though anything can, and will, happen.
While the Braves – and others highlighted today by my colleagues – boasted the specter of pre-season plausibility, the Padres were thought to be rubbish.
For proof, go back and check out the pre-season picks by the experts that far too many rely far too much on for accurate predictions. Ken Rosenthal prognosticated that the Rockies would win the N.L. West. ESPN had 35 experts predict the N.L. West outcome prior to the season’s beginning – 26 picked the Rockies. Of those, six picked the Rockies to win the World Series. Zero chose the Padres for anything. The well-established and highly respected Baseball Prospectus picked the Rockies first, and the Padres last. Sports Illustrated reporter Jon Heyman chose the Rockies as well.
Oops.
So, while the Padres have done incredibly well, can anyone honestly say that it makes sense that the Colorado Rockies had to win five straight games just to get back to within striking distance of the Padres? Is anyone else, besides me, fairly shocked that the Padres are in the division’s best position?
Universally, the Padres did not figure into any pre-season predictions, or any pre-season thinking at all. Nearly every baseball person believed the Padres had zero shot to have any impact this season.
If no experts saw the Padres as relevant, then how did the team become so darn good? For starters, the Padres are finally playing the type of baseball that the home stadium was tailored for. Pitching and defense is usually just a cliché for baseball success, unless the home stadium is wide open, deep and flat to center field with afterthought power alleys (both right and left field power alleys measure 402 feet). With a field as vast as the one the Padres play on speedy, athletic outfielders – and slick fielding infielders – become paramount.
Also, strong starting pitching is not just a “nice to have” but positively mandatory. The stars – the philosophical and athletic type – are finally aligning for the Padres, and Petco Park is a central figure.
The park helps, but the players are also good. The players have collectively compiled remarkably consistent stats to this point in the season. The Padres are 27-19 at home, and 23-17 on the road. Other than those pesky win-loss stats, the team is really rather average on offense. Unsurprisingly, it is the pitching that has vaulted the Padres into unexpected division leaders.
The team boasts an amazing 3.19 ERA – tops in MLB – and are tied for first in fewest hits allowed with 683. The team is 11 strike outs off of the league leading San Francisco Giants with 694 (at this writing). For those that care, the team’s WHIP is a combined 1.22, which is almost unfair.
The starting pitching is good. But those excellent stats only serve a team through the sixth inning. How does the pitching stack up when the pressure reaches a fever pitch? Well, the team ERA drops to 2.46!! That is more than half a run better than the next best team, the Minnesota Twins. Here the Padres also lead the league in strike outs from inning seven on, with 287, and a telling 1.04 WHIP. The bullpen is very, very good.
Pitching is a huge part of the Padres success. It is difficult to imagine a scenario where the pitching fails the team in the second half… especially since the team will be able to rest its players over the All-Star break. Despite the team’s great record, only one player HAS to work over the All-Star break. What a surprising luxury for such a talented team.
The season is not over. The pre-season predictions about the Rockies and Padres may still ring true, we don’t know. But it is safe to assert that few believed the Padres would be in a position to win the division at this – or any point – in the season. After the recent events in sports, I, for one, would love to start seeing small market teams emerge as the best in the sports. Surely the balance has to shift at some point. Why not start with the very talented, well managed San Diego Padres?
