The LeBron James Patriotic Obligation Debate… Say It Ain’t So, LeBron

April 15, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Bleacher Fan.

LeBron James may choose not to represent America by playing for Team U.S.A. during FIBA World Championship tournament this summer in Turkey. Say it ain’t so LeBron, say it ain’t so.

Although I have never been the biggest basketball fan in the world, I have pretty much always been a LeBron James fan. Since he burst onto the scene in the NBA during the 2003-2004 season, his dynamic play captivated the attention of millions and made him a national icon. He is athletic, entertaining, and dominant – all qualities that endear him to the public, as well as Babe Ruthless. But my support for King James may come to a screeching halt depending on the choice LeBron makes this summer between the love of money or country.

For those unfamiliar with the FIBA World Championships, it – like Ron Burgundy – is kind of a big deal. The U.S.A. Basketball website even states that, “The World Championship title is considered as prestigious as the Olympic title.” It could accurately be compared to the World Cup in soccer. Bailing on Team U.S.A. for reasons other than military service or death should be out of the question. But LeBron has alluded to bowing out for the ultra-convincing reason of, “I got a really, really, really, really, really busy summer.”

Well since he used five really’s, I understand. Had he used four then I would question it.

So what’s going to keep the Cavaliers’ star so busy that he cannot take two weeks to represent the country that gave him the opportunities to be successful in the first place?

If he is worried about getting an injury that would lower his value in free agency, he needs to think again. If Albert Pujols or Peyton Manning had injuries during the offseason before their free agency, does anyone in their right mind think they would still not receive top dollar? Certainly not. Elite players are often worth their salary in terms of the draw they bring at the gate and on TV, let alone their contributions on their respective playing fields. LeBron James would be no different. Hypothetically, in a worse case scenario, he blows out a muscle playing for Team U.S.A. I firmly believe he would still demand top dollar on the free agent market simply because he’s LeBron James – one of the most marketable players in sports right now.

It is rumored that part of the reason LeBron could choose to skip the tournament is because of a movie deal. Are you freaking kidding me!? Pardon my shock and utter lack of enthusiasm for the project, but I thought it was clear by now that basketball players and movies go together like peanut butter and turds. Maybe he can follow in the footsteps of Dennis Rodman and make a great action movie like Double Team. With a powerhouse teaming of Jean Claude Van Damme and Dennis Rodman, what could go wrong? The film poster could have read, “One is not from this country and the other is not from this planet.” Or if LeBron is finds he is really good at acting – as most professional athletes with just a high school education are – he might be lucky enough to mimic the acting career of Shaquille O’Neal. I do not know how anyone could forget Shaq’s epic portrayal of a genie granting children wishes in Kazaam. The tagline for this little cinematic wonder was, “He’s a rappin’ genie with an attitude… and he’s ready for slam-dunk fun!” I hope for the film goers’ sake there are some good previews.

It is also believed that James wants to take time to choose where he will be playing next season. With free agency quickly approaching, LeBron must decide whether to stay in Cleveland or departure for a bigger market – perhaps the Big Apple where his beloved New York Yankees play. While I respect him for wanting to make a decision about his future after the season rather than creating a huge distraction, I do not believe that it would actually prohibit James from playing in the World Championships. Whatever his choice, I feel certain he would have enough time to make it. The last time I checked you can still make decisions just as well in Turkey as you can in Cleveland.

The most frustrating aspect to the whole situation is that it is clear LeBron likes representing America, he just seems to have his priorities out of whack right now. LeBron has played for Team U.S.A. during the 2004 and 2008 Summer Olympics, and played in the last FIBA World Championship in 2006. But it appears his self-interests are getting in the way of his duty to his country.

His decision to miss the 2010 World Championships also comes with future repercussions. U.S.A. Basketball Chairman Jerry Colangelo has stated that missing the World Championships without an acceptable excuse would prohibit a player from playing for the U.S.A. during 2012s Summer Olympic Games in London. I would hate for a poor decision to tarnish the legacy LeBron is building for himself, not just as an NBA legend, but an ambassador of basketball to the world.

I know that LeBron never took an oath to represent America against threats both foreign and domestic, but some American athletes have. A special few athletes like Pat Tillman have given their last full measure of devotion to the protection of this country. No one is asking LeBron James to raid caves in Afghanistan looking for Al Qadea, they are just asking him to do what he does best for the benefit of his country. It is well said that with great power (in LeBron’s case, talent) comes great responsibility. James is arguably the best player in America right now, and he should be representing this country to the rest of the world. Maybe my admiration of LeBron has caused my expectations to be too high, but I do not think so.

LeBron James has a duty to serve his country. Money, movies, or personal decisions should not hinder him from doing what so many others would gladly choose to do if they had the God-given talents that James has. It seems to me that basketball is running short of reputable heroes… the type of players that kids can look up to. LeBron has the opportunity to be that type of hero. I sincerely hope that he strongly reconsiders his current stance on playing, or he will surely loose patriotic fans.

My personal advice to LeBron is to rent the movie Miracle, actually listen to the national anthem they sing before each ballgame, and take a trip out to see the Statue of Liberty the next time he’s in New York. After having a heart to heart with Lady Liberty, I think he will make the right decision. U.S.A., U.S.A., U.S.A.!

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The 2010 MLB Sleeper Debate… Ray-king in Wins in 2010

April 14, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Babe Ruthless.

After April has come and gone the season begins to settle in, the real sleeper teams begin to emerge. Be wary of the April bandwagon, folks. Many teams – and individual players – start off the season with a great April but are unable to sustain that success down the stretch of an entire marathon baseball season. The key to today’s debate – which is designed to identify the best sleeper in team in baseball for 2010 – is to pick the team that may not start on fire but will improve over the course of the season. Despite the difficult division the team finds itself in, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are the baseball’s best unexpected winner for the 2010 season.

Sure, at this writing the Rays are a game out of the division lead and sitting alongside the Yankees and the surprising Blue Jays (remember that post-April dip I mentioned?), and it seems as though my assertion is obvious. Consider, however, the fact that the Rays missed the playoffs last season and collapsed when faced with an opportunity to close in on the wild card leading Boston Red Sox in the closing weeks of the season (remember that Boston was riding a six game losing streak before winning its last four games to lock up the postseason spot). That is a tough way for any team to lose out on the postseason, when opportunity is present, but missed.

Last season also presented a difficult one for the Rays because of the various key contributors on the team that missed time due to injury. Though the surprising Jason Bartlett batted .320 last season, he also only played in 137 games. While Evan Longoria played in 157, he also battled injuries for most of the first two months – and some would argue the entire season – causing his batting average to slump to a surprisingly low .281. B.J. Upton only played in 144 games and Carlos Pena only in 135 games. The team still finished seventh in MLB in runs scored. Despite the difficulties at the plate the team still won 84 games and battled into September for a shot at the playoffs.

The 2010 season dawns on a healthy, rightfully optimistic bunch of Rays. Longoria is healthy and off to a great start with two home runs already on the young season. Carl Crawford is off to a slower start, but this is the same player that was last season’s All-Star game MVP and is a solid and consistent contributor for the team. He hit .305 last season and stole 60 bags. A healthy Rays lineup is a dangerous one.

Pitching was a constant battle last season with Matt Garza the staff’s only legitimate big league starter by season’s end because he was neither too old nor too inexperienced to have a positive impact. Very promising starter David Price is fresh off the experience of a full season as a starter in the majors. Even with his outstanding stuff, he is listed fourth in the starting rotation right now. And with good reason. James Shields has thrown over 215 innings the past two seasons while averaging a sub-4.00 ERA. Jeff Niemann enjoyed his first full season in the major leagues as a starter by hurling a 3.94 ERA and earning a team high 13 wins.

Win totals from the past two seasons might be low for this staff’s starters, but a vastly improved bullpen should help the starters notch more wins. New closer Rafael Soriano, though he had his battles with injuries in Atlanta, can be considered the first legitimate closer in the still short history of the Rays’ franchise. Grant Balfour earned 18 holds last season and will be looked upon, along with J.P. Howell (who will come off the disabled at the end of April) as key set up men. Howell had just four holds – but an impressive 2.84 ERA – last season. Dan Wheeler is still around the pen, too, after two straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. That is a tough bunch of navigate – even for the hitters in the A.L. East – before getting to Soriano, who is already a proven closer in the majors.

April is a long month. Before getting too caught up in the fast starts of some trendy teams, remember that by June 1 a team still must be able to compete. That requires a balanced team, experienced winners, and plenty of depth. The Rays have each of those vital elements and will be 2010’s surprise sleeper team.

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The 2010 MLB Sleeper Debate… The Fish Could Swim to the Playoffs

April 14, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Sports Geek.

We are ten days into the Major League Baseball season and there are some things happening that do not surprise me. Albert Pujols is raking the ball. The Houston Astros are terrible. The San Francisco Giants have an awesome pitching staff. Chipper Jones already has a nagging injury. I could go on and on. But for the purposes of this debate, we are looking at possible sleeper teams in baseball this season. Babe Ruthless has chosen to go with the Royals, while Sports Geek has decided to go with the Rays. Both of are good picks in contrasting ways. But I am going to go with the Florida Marlins.

Did you know that last season’s Florida Marlins team won 87 games? I happen to know that since I follow the National League East quite regularly. The Marlins seemingly fly under the radar every season, and that is one of the essential reasons why they have to be considered a sleeper. Despite having a solid team returning, do you want to guess how many fantasy players from the Marlins are actually on a team in The Sports Debates fantasy league? I counted three, with those being the obvious choices of Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, and Dan Uggla. No one really knows about this team, and that includes the residents in South Florida, as the Marlins historically rank near the bottom of the league in attendance.

We have shown the Marlins a little bit of love in the past month. I highlighted the N.L. East as the best division in baseball a couple of weeks ago, and just last week Sports Geek said that the Marlins had the “best rotation for the money.” That rotation starts with Johnson, obviously, but veterans like Ricky Nolasco and Nate Robertson can definitely win double digit games.

Everyone knows about Ramirez and Uggla, but did you know that last season’s National League Rookie of the Year plays for the Fish? That’s right! Introduce yourself to Chris Coghlan. He is off to a slow start this season, but in 2009 he was a nuisance for opponents as he seemingly always was on base. I like to call him a “contact hitter specialist.” Some like to call him a “professional hitter,” but I do not think that gives him enough credit.

Another player who is off to a hot start this year is Jorge Cantu. Cantu already has 13 runs batted in this season. He has at least one RBI in eight straight games. He also flies under the radar. Until writing this argument I did not realize that he had 100 RBI last season.

All of these guys are managed by Fredi Gonzalez, who I think could be on the short list to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta next year. Gonzalez was a third base coach for the Braves from 2003-2006. His ability to get these young guys in Florida to come together is underappreciated by a lot of people, but it is hard to ignore the results.

The fact that you probably do not know much about the Marlins is what makes them a sleeper. But if they make a serious run towards the postseason, which is quite possible, then you just may hear more about those elusive Marlins that no one can reel in!

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The 2010 MLB Sleeper Debate… Super Sleepers Picks Getting the Royal Treatment

April 14, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Sports Geek.

As frequent followers of TSD are aware, Babe Ruthless is not a big fan of underdogs. So when it comes to selecting sleeper teams for the 2010 MLB season, I would like to preface my argument with a few disclaimers. Sleeper teams are labeled sleepers for a reason, usually because they have been bad for so long that no one expects them to do anything worthwhile. Yes every now and then the proverbial blind squirrel stumbles upon a nut (like the 2008 Rays or the 2007 Rockies) but in general survival of the fittest still reigns supreme. Upsets of this magnitude are statistical anomalies. More often than not Goliath smashes David not the other way around, so selecting a bad team to win the World Series, let alone make the playoffs, is an exercise in futility. I do not want to give any false hope to historically underachieving teams, because they certainly do not deserve it. But if – and that’s a big if – I am forced to pick a complete dark horse team that no one sees coming to emerge and make a playoff run, I would select… wait for it… the Kansas City Royals (I’ll wait for the laughter to die down before I continue), and here’s why.

The Royals have all the key ingredients to be a great sleeper. They play in an unstable division which makes reaching the post-season more attainable. Lately the A.L. Central has seen more changes than Heidi Montag’s body. The division has had a virtual revolving door over the past three seasons as far as division winners go (2009 Twins, 2008 White Sox, 2007 Indians). Another hallmark of a great sleeper is the fact that public expectations are extremely low. The Royals have not seen post-season play since 1985, when they won the World Series. To put that in perspective Usain Bolt, Megan Fox, Shaun White, Lady GaGa, and the Olsen twins were not even born yet. So I would say expectations could not get much lower, but on the bright side the Royals will have the aspect of surprise on their side. But for a sleeper team to make the jump from early season prediction to post-season contender the right players are crucial.

Having the right personnel is essential to winning in baseball. The 1997 Florida Marlins are a case study. The Marlins went from the penthouse to the outhouse over the course of one season, almost solely because of personnel changes. In 1997 the young club won the World Series with a mix of talented batters – like Gary Sheffield and Moises Alou – and skilled pitchers – like Kevin Brown and Livan Hernandez. But as quickly as this sleeper team rose from obscurity, they plummeted because team management held a fire sale. As a result, the Marlins went from World Series champions to having the worst record in the majors (54-108). This fall from greatness relegates the Marlins back to sleeper status until they get aggressive and bring in the key guys to win.

Many teams in baseball have acquired new talent this off-season (here’s a quiz to see how many acquisitions you can name). But some of it can be considered much ado about nothing. For example, the Baltimore Orioles acquisition of Kevin Millwood, Miguel Tejada, and Garrett Atkins were moves that made an increasingly competitive club even better, but it seems like a virtual lock that they will not be able to unseat divisional powerhouses like the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals do not face the same challenge. The Royals benefit from facing lackluster division rivals like the Indians, White Sox, and Tigers. The Royals brought in some outfield talent with the additions of Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel. While these guys are not a huge source of power, and are definitely not the most feared bats in the league, they can definitely complement a thumper like Billy Butler. Plus Podsednik and fellow newcomer Chris Getz offer speed on the basepaths. The Royals are definitely well equipped with pitching, too, boasting a one two punch of Zack Greinke, a Cy Young winner, and Gil Meche a 14 game winner just two seasons ago. Not to mention they have a lights out closer in Joakim Soria. Their depth chart shows they are ready to compete, and I have to say they at least have a chance, but some things still have to fall their way.

To win the A.L. Central or even the wild card the Royals are going to need a few lucky breaks. They are going to need the rest of their rotation – Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies – to stay healthy and not to hemorrhage runs. They are going to need average years out of the rest of the division. If the White Sox or Tigers have runaway seasons it will be pretty hard for the Royals to compete, but not impossible. You have to admit the Royals have assembled a team with some serious upside. If they can hit the ground running, and are not hit to hard by the injury bug, Kansas City could be looking at baseball in October, and I don’t mean watching it on the TV from the comfort of their homes. I like Kansas City’s chances… even if they are lowly underdogs.

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The Mock Draft Value Debate Verdict… Stick to Fortune Cookies for Fortune Telling

April 14, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Loyal Homer.

Do you remember the Sesame Street game and corresponding song “One of these things is not like the other things One of these things just doesn’t belong?” I used to LOVE that feature on the show, and am going to give you a challenge á la Sesame Street right now. Which of the following just doesn’t belong?

1) Visiting the Dentist
2) Brussels Sprouts
3) Michael Jordan
4) Mock Drafts

Did you guess “Mock Drafts?” If so, you are the winner!

The quality that visits to the dentist, Brussels sprouts, and Michael Jordan all have (but Mock Drafts lack) is that they are three things that I genuinely despise. Nonetheless, I am able to acknowledge the substantial value they hold. As for Mock Drafts, they are different because I not only dislike them, but I am also unable find any value in them. Congratulations to Loyal Homer for winning this debate.

Going to the dentist, for example, is one of my least favorite things to do. Between the scraping, drilling (although none was necessary on my last visit, thank you very much!), and judgment that I will undoubtedly be subjected to (no I HAVE NOT been flossing regularly, so just BACK OFF with the Grand Inquisition already and let’s get on with the fluoride rinse!), the dentist’s office is one of the few places that I genuinely dread. However, I recognize the fact that proper oral hygiene is very important, and thusly subject myself semi-annually to their pseudo-sadistic rituals. Likewise, the overall health benefits of Brussels sprouts cannot be denied, regardless of my personal distaste for them.

Finally, as a Cleveland Cavaliers’ fan in the late 1980s and early 1990s, there was no person in basketball I hated more than Michael Jordan. Thanks to his regular habit of success at the dream-crushing expense of my beloved Cavs, I was one person who could confidently say that I did NOT want to be “Like Mike.” Once again, my personal disgust for #23 (and #45) does not preclude my ability to recognize the role he played in the NBA. I may not have liked him, but he was clearly of value to the NBA.

With each of those examples, a distinction must be made between the subjectivity of my personal preference, and the objectivity of assessing their very real and genuine value. From that same objective standpoint, Loyal Homer and Babe Ruthless were challenged to demonstrate the value (or lack thereof) from the Mock Draft.

Babe Ruthless claims that the value of Mock Drafts can come from an attempt at bringing order to disorder, and that they serve both the purpose of entertaining and informing. The problem is that Babe Ruthless then refutes his own claims (albeit unintentionally) by making statements that mock drafts are nothing more than educated guesses, and that they make no difference at all when Roger Goodell reads the REAL selections on draft day. To quote Babe Ruthless’ own argument, “What’s the point?”

Loyal Homer further refutes the validity of Mock Drafts by highlighting the fact that they are far too inconsistent (even when provided by the same analyst), and fail to account for draft-day trades, which are a very real part of the draft experience. I agree that it is difficult to predict which teams will pull the trigger on a draft-day trade, but is it any harder than trying to predict which player they will draft if they decide to hold onto their pick? I don’t think so.

This debate leads me to the conclusion that Mock Drafts are to sports what shows like Maury Povich and Jerry Springer are to television. Both are little more than substance-lacking fluff pieces designed for nothing more than the purpose of filling time and space.

If the analysis went no further than a team-by-team breakdown of their upcoming needs and the draftees who would best fit within their organization, I would see immense value. There is nothing wrong with discussing the various talents (and benefits) that particular players can bring around the NFL. Likewise, there is nothing wrong with gauging the likelihood of a player to be drafted in the first round, etc. I cannot see the value, though, in donning Carnac the Magnificent’s turban on the arrogant assumption that you can successfully predict the outcome of a three-day chess match played out by the collective brain-trusts of 32 different professional organizations.

Mock Drafts are not realistic, and the result is that they are not a piece of viable sports analysis.

Today’s debate was brought to you by the number “2” (which is the number of correct picks that most mock drafts will only be able to boast) and the letter “X” (which will be placed next to ALL of the other picks on those same mock drafts).

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The Mock Draft Value Debate

April 13, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Loyal Homer.

It is no secret that my personal opinion of Mock Drafts is not a favorable one.

The plethoric bombardment of guesswork and speculation that is fed to us in heaping spoonfuls by any and every media outlet should be enough to turn anyone off to their nonsensical (and usually errant) projections. Still, they are published with such regularity and given such prominence in the national media that you would think they were actually written by guys named Matthew, Mark, Luke, or John.

And now, a passage from the Book of Mel Kiper, Jr: “Let it be said unto thee that the Lord Goodell hath proclaimed unto me – “With the first pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select Sam Bradford, Quarterback from Oklahoma!” And there was much rejoicing!

But despite all my rantings and ravings about the lack of substance in these Mock Drafts, even I can be found hypocritically dabbling in the subtle art of prescience as I share my own prognostications on the upcoming NFL Draft with anyone who will listen (although in my defense, I did not start my tarot card readings for the 2010 Draft back in May of 2009, Todd McShay).

So what is it about the NFL Draft that drives the analyst’s penchant for attempting clairvoyance? We ALL know that we will be wrong BEFORE the draft even begins, yet we continue to spew our prophesy as though we actually have an inside track to the future and can tell you precisely which athlete will be playing for which team, and why they were selected.

I suppose it is simply the need for all of us to prove that we know what we are talking about. All it takes is for one gem to be pulled out of the piles of misses we toss out, and we begin acting as though we are the smartest people alive. For example, it did not matter that I was successful in predicting only nine of the Sweet Sixteen teams from the 2010 March Madness, because I got Cornell right. I strutted around town for a FULL WEEK singing “I told you so” at the top of my lungs for having predicted their tournament success.

Putting the psychoanalysis to the side, however, there is a more important question with regard to Mock Drafts which is the topic for today’s debate: Is there value in Mock Drafts?

Simply put, are Mock Drafts worth the time needed to create them? Do they serve a REAL purpose, or is it all just a waste of time and effort?

For the answers to those questions I will turn to Babe Ruthless, who believes that there is indeed value in the Mock Draft, and to Loyal Homer, who will argue to the contrary.

It is a Mock Trial of Mock Drafts – let the mockery begin!

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The Mock Draft Value Debate… Mock Draft Mania

April 13, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Loyal Homer.

Life is often unpredictable, and so are sports. If I told you six months ago that Donovan McNabb was going to be traded within the NFC East, Butler would be playing for the NCAA Championship, and Tiger Woods was going to ditch the PGA Tour and lose a large number of endorsement deals you would have thought I was crazy, but that’s exactly how things transpired. No one can predict the future, yet each year fans still seem to have an insatiable drive to study insider information, expert analysis, and of course mock drafts.

Today’s debate attempts to answer the question, are mock drafts valuable? Of course they are. They serve multiple purposes. Mock drafts entertain and inform us. They bring order to disorder. They give us subjects for water cooler discussion, Monday morning quarterbacking, and of course – sports debates.

The problem is there are way too many mock drafts out there and those doing the prognosticating take things way too seriously. Mock drafts seem to be as prevalent as Tiger Woods jokes right now. Everybody seems to have one. Some of them are good, some of them are funny, and some just do not make any sense at all. Between ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo!, and other sports media outlets too numerous to list, someone could easily be overwhelmed by all the research, insider information, and expert analysis.

Mock drafts are a lot like women. No, I don’t mean that all mock drafts are out to take your money and suck the life out of you slowly. I mean that there are different approaches to them. Some guys want to experience as many mock drafts as possible. Some guys focus on one mock draft that they like, know, and trust. Although mock drafts can be confusing and frustrating (not to mention mock drafts are poor drivers… HeyOh!) we still need them.

Sure, mock drafts can make life nerve-racking. As if our blood pressure levels weren’t high enough on draft day – what with the future success of our favorite teams riding on the line and all – we are further stressed out by the non-stop barrage of commentary that seems to contradict every mock draft we have studied. The solution is simple, accept mock drafts and analysis for what they really are – someone’s educated guess.

While it is true that draft rankings are based off of quantifiable statistics and measurable categories (like position need, college success, combine performance, and scouting reports), they are still ultimately opinions. And opinions can be wrong. Just like anything else in life, you can put a lot of stock or very little into an opinion based off of how much you trust the source. Mock drafts are no different. Each year I check out a few, but I usually stick with just one. In the end it makes no difference in the long run because Commissioner Goodell reads the names teams submit to him, not what is listed on a mock draft. So what’s the point?

Mock drafts allow us to control that which we otherwise could not. They give fans temporary resolution between the end of one season and the beginning of the next. When a player retires, gets traded, or leaves via free agency it usually creates a hole on the roster that needs to be addressed. Fans want to know how that team is going to address the need, but there is a long time to wait between the Super Bowl in February and pre-season football in August. That is where mock drafts come in handy.

While there is absolutely no assurance that a team will draft who the experts say they should, fans are often afforded peace of mind knowing that there is a logical solution out there. For example, the Carolina Panthers need to address vacancies at quarterback, defensive line, and wide receiver. As a fan, I get panicky considering what the Panthers will do in the upcoming draft. But with a quick glance at a few mock drafts I have learned that most sources tend to believe Carolina will address needs at wide receiver when their first selection rolls around. While I may not agree with that call I at least know what to expect, even if it is more disappointment (for the love of all that’s right, draft a quarterback!)

It is all really a mental thing. Not to get all psychological on you, but the human brain wants to resolve things. For example, let me demonstrate something I learned in college. If I were to sing, “nuh nuh na na, nuh nuh na na, hey hey hey…” your mind would probably resolve the missing line “goodbye.” I am willing to bet you probably finished the phrase in your mind. Why? Because your brain wants resolution. It is simple human nature. Mock drafts give us the satisfaction of resolution, at least until the draft happens.

In the end, this debate is an open and shut case. Mock drafts have value. Fans may not like that the predictions start rolling before the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl is over, but you do not have to follow each draft. Just check out one or two that you trust a few weeks out from the real deal and you will be happier for it.

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The Mock Draft Value Debate… A Complete Waste of Time

April 13, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Babe Ruthless.

There are some things in life that are a complete waste of time. Sitting in a doctor’s office for hours. Being on hold with a customer service representative. Going to a school board meeting and waiting for big news while the members discussed personnel issues in executive session, only to find out two hours later that they have decided to table the discussion until a later date (this happened to me last night). All of these things are a complete waste of time. But nothing absolutely kills the value of my life more than reading the ENDLESS and USELESS supply of mock drafts out there.

Here’s a perfect example.

One of the Web sites that I visit regularly is the Atlanta-Journal Constitution’s Web site. Over the course of the past two months the Atlanta Falcons’ beat writer, D. Orlando Ledbetter, has provided a mock draft on a weekly basis. I always give it a quick run through, but have never read it in-depth until preparing for this argument. In his mock draft on April 2, appropriately titled Mock Draft 6.0, Ledbetter projected that, among other things, Tim Tebow would be drafted ninth by the Buffalo Bills. Hmmm, I found that interesting at the time. But a week later, in Mock Draft 7.0, he projected that Tebow was not going to be drafted in the first round. He was listed under the “On the Fringe” label. Had Tebow really fallen that far in a week’s time? Maybe he never should have been that high? What did or didn’t he do to take such a nosedive? Heck, perhaps Ledbetter read my argument about Tim Tebow from a couple of weeks ago and was convinced that Tebow is not going to be a good NFL quarterback. Who knows! These are all questions that no one can legitimately answer.

Go to any sports Web site and you are going to find an abundance of “speculative” information. This includes a countless array of mock drafts. I dare you to find two mock drafts out there that are EXACTLY the same. Go ahead. I double dare you!!! If I published my own mock draft, would you read it? You may if you are a frequent visitor (which we hope you are!). But you might not believe a word of it. Why should my version be any better than the other guy’s? Why is it any worse for that matter? It sure isn’t an exact science. It is not even close to Bracketology.

Mock drafts do not take into account that trades may actually happen on draft day. What if St. Louis decides to trade the number one pick to a team that wants to trade up and draft Ndamukong Suh? That has a major trickle down effect because Detroit, with the second pick, is obviously not going to draft Sam Bradford because they already have a young quarterback in Matthew Stafford. What does Detroit do then? Do they trade the pick? Do they take Gerald McCoy? Who knows! It’s a crap shoot!

We all like to read various articles throughout the day to help pass the time at work. You know you have probably read a mock draft from Todd McShay or Mel Kiper, Jr. at some point. I know I have. But that does not mean I believe there is value to a mock draft. I may read about Jesse James’s last fling in The National Enquirer while waiting in line at Wal-Mart, but that doesn’t mean I believe there is value.

Let it be said that this debate is my official mockery of mock drafts!!!

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The 2010 Worst Contract in Baseball Debate… Hendry SHOULD Have Said SoriaNO

April 12, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Loyal Homer.

With all due respect to my colleagues (and they are due respect), they are freakin’ off their rockers if they think they found a worse contract in professional baseball than the one with Alfonso Soriano’s scrawl on it.

Soriano is in year four of an eight year contract that will pay him $136M. He will receive ONLY $136M because, though his contract does have performance incentives in them, he will never reach them. That guaranteed $136M is his BASE salary for eight pointless years on Chicago’s North Side. Included in this joke of a contract was an $8M signing bonus and a full no-trade clause (which just seems ironic at this point). Those performance incentives are for being the top vote getting in the All-Star voting (how many times can Mrs. Soriano vote before getting carpal tunnel, I wonder), for being the World Series MVP, LCS MVP, MLB MVP, or winning a gold glove. Ha. Ha. How ambitious was Soriano’s agent, Diego Bentz, or how drunk was Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, to even consider such outlandish performance incentives. Given Soriano’s track record and career contributions, how were those achievements considered realistic?

Speaking of Diego Bentz, did you know that he gets paid $850,000 for each year of Soriano’s contract? For those of you quick at math, that is $6.8M. Kudos, Diego – but I think you should be in jail for fraud.

Before taking a deeper dive into the finer points of Soriano’s embarrassing contract, here is some context. Soriano’s contract is currently the ninth largest in Major League Baseball. You are probably asking, “But Sports Geek, surely there are worse players than Soriano in the top eight players.” If you are saying that, then you would be mistaken. Here is a list of the eight players in front of Soriano:

  1. Alex Rodriguez: $275M
  2. Derek Jeter: $252M
  3. Joe Mauer: $189M
  4. Mark Teixiera: $180
  5. C.C. Sabathia: $161M
  6. Miguel Cabrera: $152.3M
  7. Todd Helton: $151.5M
  8. Johan Santana: $137.5M
  9. Alfonso Soriano: $136M

Baseball contracts – like any contract in any business – are all about value. Value is determined primarily by calculating the return on a given investment.

Rodriguez, Jeter, Teixiera, and Sabathia have all delivered championships for their team, therefore the return on investment is solid. While Mauer, Cabrera, Helton, and Santana have not yet won championships they still share a common trait of not sucking. Joe Mauer is one of the top catchers in the majors and fresh off an MVP season where he hit a stellar .365 to win the batting title. Even in a down year where Cabrera was accused of being overweight and under-motivated he hit .292, belted 37 homers, and notched an AL leading 331 total bases. Todd Helton had one bad season where he hit .264, but he also suffered from injuries all season. For his career he is a .328 batter. Santana has only posted three full seasons with an ERA over three in his entire career. And even when his ERA was over three, 3.33 was where it topped out… which was in 2007 when he was still fifth in Cy Young voting.

And then we arrive at Soriano. Impressively, Soriano has struck out 1,189 times in his career. Amazing, especially when you consider that he has earned lucked into a walk just 338 times. That is a good indication that Soriano is a junk ball hitter and total free swinger. He makes it seem as though Jacques Jones has the patience of Ted Williams. Soriano is a one pitch hitter, like Jobu from Major League.

Soriano’s batting average has dropped each season with the Cubs, as has his on base percentage and slugging percentage. The inverse relationships between his yearly salary and on-field production is suspect.

Do you remember those incentives for postseason performance? Here’s why they’re a crock. Soriano is a lifetime .213 hitter in the postseason, including .143 and .071 for two postseason campaigns with the Cubs. In 44 career postseason games he has walked (SOMEhow) nine times… compared to 53 whiffs. At least the Cubs will get a bargain on postseason payouts.

You may be thinking that, though Soriano’s stats certainly are not very good, surely he must realize that fact and announce he is going to redouble his efforts and improve his game, right? Wrong.

“I still have the talent,” he was quoted as saying in a Washington Post article a few weeks ago. “The only thing for me is to stay healthy, so I can help the team win. If I stay healthy, I will put up the numbers.”

Anyone interested in a big glass of denial?

This is partly an article about Soriano, and partly an article devoted to the long-forgotten promise of one James Hendry, the general manager for the Chicago Cubs.

We have all had those “moments” in our professional work lives where everything just gets overwhelming. The normal human response is to request some time off, clear the cobwebs, and comeback refreshed and ready to maintain your creativity. In fact, studies show that the most creative people are the ones who do a good job balancing work and their personal lives. When Jim Henry completed the deal to sign free agent pitching Ted Lilly in 2006 he was hooked up to an EKG machine. That, Jim, was a clear sign that it was time to take a few days and regroup. What many in the press applauded as a Herculean effort was in truth the death of creativity for a once promising general manager.

Had Hendry not been exhausted or overwhelmed or been given too many resources or whatever the excuse du jour is, he probably would have noticed some alarming statistics that should have prevented the signing. For example, as baseball heads deeper into the sabermetrics era, Hendry completely missed that signing a leadoff hitter who gets on base once every three at bats is just not good enough. A total of 406 strikeouts in the three years preceding the signing are not good for a leadoff hitter and are a rally killer at any point in the game. Bottom line, with a stat line like Soriano’s it should have been evident that he – like his contract – would be an albatross on consistent production. Hendry’s unwillingness to acknowledge that Soriano was not built for the long run, and remain enamored with the desire to fill the Cubs lineup with home run hitters, triggered an eight year mistake. As a loyal Cubs fan, I would take a three year Milton Bradley mistake over an eight year Soriano mistake every time.

From now until 2014 Alfonso Soriano will earn $18M every season. That is pretty good for a player who always avoided or lost in arbitration. That is pretty good for a player that started his career in Japan where he hit .118 before signing with the Yankees as a minor leaguer. The Cubs are stuck with Soriano because they had newly minted resources flowing through their pockets during a Winter where Soriano was the best alternative. Despite statistics, logic, and “gut feel,” the Cubs signed Soriano to what is now, without a doubt, the worst contract in professional baseball.

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The 2010 Worst Contract in Baseball Debate… Barry Zito Signing, A Giant Mistake

April 12, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Sports Geek and Loyal Homer.

Not to overstate this, but the San Francisco Giants’ decision to sign Barry Zito is one of the worst decisions in the history of mankind. Seriously, it was an epically disastrous decision. We are talking hiring O.J. Simpson as your marriage counselor bad. But Zito swindled the Giants for so much money it would make Bernie Madoff jealous, and Zito will continue to make out like a bandit for years to come. Barry Zito clearly has the worst contract in baseball.

Prior to the 2007 season, the San Francisco Giants signed the former Oakland Athletics ace to a whopping seven year contract worth approximately $126M. In the wake of huge spending sprees in baseball recently that may not sound like much, but at the time this was a record breaking deal. It was the most lucrative contract given to a pitcher in baseball history. Today the only pitchers with larger contracts are C.C. Sabathia ($161M) and Johan Santana ($137.5M). Currently Zito ranks 13th out of all players in baseball in terms of value of their overall contract.

Some might think me hypocritical for questioning the Giants decision to drop that type of cash on a player, but my problem is not with money. Rather, my issue is with what the Giants were getting for there money. Zito was probably the best free agent on the market that offseason, but the Giants were still seriously overpaying. In 2006, the year before he signed with San Francisco, Zito pitched for 16 wins and 10 losses with a stat line of 3.83 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 151 strikeouts. While that seems respectable enough, eighteen other pitchers had at least 16 wins that seasons, and nine of those pitchers had a better ERA. So, what exactly did the Giants see in him that the rest of us were missing?

Maybe they liked the fact that he had thrown at least 214 innings in every season since his rookie year. Maybe they were enthralled with his 2002 season where he won an astonishing 23 games. Maybe it was his 205 strikeouts in 2001. But whatever potential for greatness Zito’s career numbers seemed to indicate to the Giants, they were not acquiring that pitcher.

What the Giants ended up with was an overpaid, glorified innings eater. In three years playing for San Francisco Zito has only posted losing seasons. He has yet to exceed 11 wins in any one season. He has failed to reach 200 innings in any season for the Giants, and his ERA has ballooned to more over four (4.53 in 2007, 5.15 in 2008, and 4.03 in 2009). It was even rumored that the Giants have considered sending Zito to the minors. Who could blame them? He is no longer a feared pitching ace, as much as a pitiful creature. To put it bluntly, Zito is a bum. I know it sounds harsh but sometimes the truth hurts.

Now, here’s the rub. It is not Barry Zito’s fault. All Zito did was accept an offer which will allow him to provide for his family for generations to come. He did not force anyone to give him that much money and a full no trade clause. So who is to blame, you ask? Brian Sabean. The blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the general manager who signed Zito. It was Sabean’s responsibility to ensure that Zito would produce, which he has not. It was Sabean’s responsibility to build an escape clause for the Giants should things head South, which he did not. Because of Sabean, Barry Zito has the worst contract in baseball.

My competition for today’s debate, Sports Geek and Loyal Homer, are going to argue that Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells have worse contracts. I will admit that both players also have bad contracts (Soriano eight years $136M and Wells seven years $126M), but Zito’s deal is far worse. Soriano and Wells are position players and their contracts are paying them to play in 162 games each season. Zito, a pitcher, is being paid to go out and perform once about every five days. That means the Giants are paying $126 for around 30 starts each season. When those 30 starts yield just ten or 11 wins that is a recipe for the biggest contract bust in baseball. The Cubs and Blue Jays are getting more bang for their buck than the Giants.

Barry Zito was brought to the City by the Bay to be a franchise player, the face of the organization. As it turns out he became a face the organization would probably want to put a paper bag over. Zito has the worst contract in baseball and it looks like the Giants are going to have ride this disaster out.

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