Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Sports Geek.
The most surprising April move of 2010 was actually not a move that SHOULD have taken place, but one that didn’t. I don’t care that he won last night, I am still absolutely SHOCKED by Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker’s insistence at keeping Aaron Harang in his starting rotation.
We need to look past the immediate recency of last night’s performance, in which Harang gave up only two runs over a six-inning stretch to notch his first “W” since August 9 of last year. As impressively as he pitched last night, Harang has proven that his 6-2 win over the Astros will be the exception, rather than the norm. Prior to last night’s performance, Harang was 0-3 with an ERA of 8.31, and THAT is the REAL Aaron Harang.
I know what you are thinking – the ENTIRE Reds rotation is struggling right now, so why single out Harang?
The answer is simple. You have to start somewhere.
Top-to-bottom, the Reds rotation is in trouble. As of this morning, Harang and his four fellow starters (Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake) have combined for a record of only two wins (half of which came thanks to Harang’s efforts last night) to SEVEN losses! With that horrible record, rookie Mike Leake is the only starter so far this season with an ERA below 5.00, and his is not THAT impressive at 3.92. But compared to Cueto’s 5.73, or the +7.00 numbers coming from Bailey, Arroyo, and Harang, Leake looks like a Cy Young candidate!
The difference between Harang and his four colleagues is that Harang’s struggles are not new. Since 2008, he has won only 13 total games, and has lost 34. By comparison, there were 41 other pitchers in 2009 who won more games in ONE season than Harang was able to in TWO full seasons. Additionally, his 17 losses in the 2008 season were tied with Barry Zito for the most in the National League by a starting pitcher. He followed that up with 14 losses last season (tied for the second most in the NL), and is on pace for another league-leading performance as he trails the current NL loss-leader, Charlie Morton of Pittsburgh, by only one.
Clearly, Harang has not been the same pitcher that he once was, and at some point (to quote Van Wilder, Sr.) Dusty Baker needs to “realize a poor investment, and cut your losses… Write that down.”
As we have already discussed here at TSD, Dusty Baker is (or at least SHOULD BE) on thin ice in Cincinnati. He has not had a winning record as a manager since his 2004 season with the Chicago Cubs, and with a 9-11 record to start off the 2010 season (already sitting four games behind the division leading St. Louis Cardinals), he is in no position to cry, “Trust me, I know what I am doing.”
The Reds have lost the luxury of sitting back and waiting for slumps to break. If they want any hope of chasing the Cardinals in the NL Central, they need to start making some aggressive changes now. While Baker cannot realistically retool his entire starting rotation all at once, a journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. That one step SHOULD have been to get Harang out of the rotation before he can do any more damage. Instead, he kept Harang in as a starter, who probably pitched just well enough to buy himself the leeway of four or five more losses over his next six starts.
Surprisingly (and foolishly), Baker is seemingly staking the future of his already shaky Reds career on the performance of a starting pitcher who has clearly set a losing tone for the whole rotation. While none of the starters for the Reds have been impressive (although Mike Leake has been a bright spot), Harang continues to lower the bar on pitching expectations in the Queen’s City.
It looks like Dusty Baker will be content in going down with the ship.
