Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Sports Geek.
As frequent followers of TSD are aware, Babe Ruthless is not a big fan of underdogs. So when it comes to selecting sleeper teams for the 2010 MLB season, I would like to preface my argument with a few disclaimers. Sleeper teams are labeled sleepers for a reason, usually because they have been bad for so long that no one expects them to do anything worthwhile. Yes every now and then the proverbial blind squirrel stumbles upon a nut (like the 2008 Rays or the 2007 Rockies) but in general survival of the fittest still reigns supreme. Upsets of this magnitude are statistical anomalies. More often than not Goliath smashes David not the other way around, so selecting a bad team to win the World Series, let alone make the playoffs, is an exercise in futility. I do not want to give any false hope to historically underachieving teams, because they certainly do not deserve it. But if – and that’s a big if – I am forced to pick a complete dark horse team that no one sees coming to emerge and make a playoff run, I would select… wait for it… the Kansas City Royals (I’ll wait for the laughter to die down before I continue), and here’s why.
The Royals have all the key ingredients to be a great sleeper. They play in an unstable division which makes reaching the post-season more attainable. Lately the A.L. Central has seen more changes than Heidi Montag’s body. The division has had a virtual revolving door over the past three seasons as far as division winners go (2009 Twins, 2008 White Sox, 2007 Indians). Another hallmark of a great sleeper is the fact that public expectations are extremely low. The Royals have not seen post-season play since 1985, when they won the World Series. To put that in perspective Usain Bolt, Megan Fox, Shaun White, Lady GaGa, and the Olsen twins were not even born yet. So I would say expectations could not get much lower, but on the bright side the Royals will have the aspect of surprise on their side. But for a sleeper team to make the jump from early season prediction to post-season contender the right players are crucial.
Having the right personnel is essential to winning in baseball. The 1997 Florida Marlins are a case study. The Marlins went from the penthouse to the outhouse over the course of one season, almost solely because of personnel changes. In 1997 the young club won the World Series with a mix of talented batters – like Gary Sheffield and Moises Alou – and skilled pitchers – like Kevin Brown and Livan Hernandez. But as quickly as this sleeper team rose from obscurity, they plummeted because team management held a fire sale. As a result, the Marlins went from World Series champions to having the worst record in the majors (54-108). This fall from greatness relegates the Marlins back to sleeper status until they get aggressive and bring in the key guys to win.
Many teams in baseball have acquired new talent this off-season (here’s a quiz to see how many acquisitions you can name). But some of it can be considered much ado about nothing. For example, the Baltimore Orioles acquisition of Kevin Millwood, Miguel Tejada, and Garrett Atkins were moves that made an increasingly competitive club even better, but it seems like a virtual lock that they will not be able to unseat divisional powerhouses like the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. The Kansas City Royals do not face the same challenge. The Royals benefit from facing lackluster division rivals like the Indians, White Sox, and Tigers. The Royals brought in some outfield talent with the additions of Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel. While these guys are not a huge source of power, and are definitely not the most feared bats in the league, they can definitely complement a thumper like Billy Butler. Plus Podsednik and fellow newcomer Chris Getz offer speed on the basepaths. The Royals are definitely well equipped with pitching, too, boasting a one two punch of Zack Greinke, a Cy Young winner, and Gil Meche a 14 game winner just two seasons ago. Not to mention they have a lights out closer in Joakim Soria. Their depth chart shows they are ready to compete, and I have to say they at least have a chance, but some things still have to fall their way.
To win the A.L. Central or even the wild card the Royals are going to need a few lucky breaks. They are going to need the rest of their rotation – Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies – to stay healthy and not to hemorrhage runs. They are going to need average years out of the rest of the division. If the White Sox or Tigers have runaway seasons it will be pretty hard for the Royals to compete, but not impossible. You have to admit the Royals have assembled a team with some serious upside. If they can hit the ground running, and are not hit to hard by the injury bug, Kansas City could be looking at baseball in October, and I don’t mean watching it on the TV from the comfort of their homes. I like Kansas City’s chances… even if they are lowly underdogs.
