Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Babe Ruthless.
After April has come and gone the season begins to settle in, the real sleeper teams begin to emerge. Be wary of the April bandwagon, folks. Many teams – and individual players – start off the season with a great April but are unable to sustain that success down the stretch of an entire marathon baseball season. The key to today’s debate – which is designed to identify the best sleeper in team in baseball for 2010 – is to pick the team that may not start on fire but will improve over the course of the season. Despite the difficult division the team finds itself in, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are the baseball’s best unexpected winner for the 2010 season.
Sure, at this writing the Rays are a game out of the division lead and sitting alongside the Yankees and the surprising Blue Jays (remember that post-April dip I mentioned?), and it seems as though my assertion is obvious. Consider, however, the fact that the Rays missed the playoffs last season and collapsed when faced with an opportunity to close in on the wild card leading Boston Red Sox in the closing weeks of the season (remember that Boston was riding a six game losing streak before winning its last four games to lock up the postseason spot). That is a tough way for any team to lose out on the postseason, when opportunity is present, but missed.
Last season also presented a difficult one for the Rays because of the various key contributors on the team that missed time due to injury. Though the surprising Jason Bartlett batted .320 last season, he also only played in 137 games. While Evan Longoria played in 157, he also battled injuries for most of the first two months – and some would argue the entire season – causing his batting average to slump to a surprisingly low .281. B.J. Upton only played in 144 games and Carlos Pena only in 135 games. The team still finished seventh in MLB in runs scored. Despite the difficulties at the plate the team still won 84 games and battled into September for a shot at the playoffs.
The 2010 season dawns on a healthy, rightfully optimistic bunch of Rays. Longoria is healthy and off to a great start with two home runs already on the young season. Carl Crawford is off to a slower start, but this is the same player that was last season’s All-Star game MVP and is a solid and consistent contributor for the team. He hit .305 last season and stole 60 bags. A healthy Rays lineup is a dangerous one.
Pitching was a constant battle last season with Matt Garza the staff’s only legitimate big league starter by season’s end because he was neither too old nor too inexperienced to have a positive impact. Very promising starter David Price is fresh off the experience of a full season as a starter in the majors. Even with his outstanding stuff, he is listed fourth in the starting rotation right now. And with good reason. James Shields has thrown over 215 innings the past two seasons while averaging a sub-4.00 ERA. Jeff Niemann enjoyed his first full season in the major leagues as a starter by hurling a 3.94 ERA and earning a team high 13 wins.
Win totals from the past two seasons might be low for this staff’s starters, but a vastly improved bullpen should help the starters notch more wins. New closer Rafael Soriano, though he had his battles with injuries in Atlanta, can be considered the first legitimate closer in the still short history of the Rays’ franchise. Grant Balfour earned 18 holds last season and will be looked upon, along with J.P. Howell (who will come off the disabled at the end of April) as key set up men. Howell had just four holds – but an impressive 2.84 ERA – last season. Dan Wheeler is still around the pen, too, after two straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. That is a tough bunch of navigate – even for the hitters in the A.L. East – before getting to Soriano, who is already a proven closer in the majors.
April is a long month. Before getting too caught up in the fast starts of some trendy teams, remember that by June 1 a team still must be able to compete. That requires a balanced team, experienced winners, and plenty of depth. The Rays have each of those vital elements and will be 2010’s surprise sleeper team.
