Read the opposing argument from Loyal Homer.
Life is often unpredictable, and so are sports. If I told you six months ago that Donovan McNabb was going to be traded within the NFC East, Butler would be playing for the NCAA Championship, and Tiger Woods was going to ditch the PGA Tour and lose a large number of endorsement deals you would have thought I was crazy, but that’s exactly how things transpired. No one can predict the future, yet each year fans still seem to have an insatiable drive to study insider information, expert analysis, and of course mock drafts.
Today’s debate attempts to answer the question, are mock drafts valuable? Of course they are. They serve multiple purposes. Mock drafts entertain and inform us. They bring order to disorder. They give us subjects for water cooler discussion, Monday morning quarterbacking, and of course – sports debates.
The problem is there are way too many mock drafts out there and those doing the prognosticating take things way too seriously. Mock drafts seem to be as prevalent as Tiger Woods jokes right now. Everybody seems to have one. Some of them are good, some of them are funny, and some just do not make any sense at all. Between ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo!, and other sports media outlets too numerous to list, someone could easily be overwhelmed by all the research, insider information, and expert analysis.
Mock drafts are a lot like women. No, I don’t mean that all mock drafts are out to take your money and suck the life out of you slowly. I mean that there are different approaches to them. Some guys want to experience as many mock drafts as possible. Some guys focus on one mock draft that they like, know, and trust. Although mock drafts can be confusing and frustrating (not to mention mock drafts are poor drivers… HeyOh!) we still need them.
Sure, mock drafts can make life nerve-racking. As if our blood pressure levels weren’t high enough on draft day – what with the future success of our favorite teams riding on the line and all – we are further stressed out by the non-stop barrage of commentary that seems to contradict every mock draft we have studied. The solution is simple, accept mock drafts and analysis for what they really are – someone’s educated guess.
While it is true that draft rankings are based off of quantifiable statistics and measurable categories (like position need, college success, combine performance, and scouting reports), they are still ultimately opinions. And opinions can be wrong. Just like anything else in life, you can put a lot of stock or very little into an opinion based off of how much you trust the source. Mock drafts are no different. Each year I check out a few, but I usually stick with just one. In the end it makes no difference in the long run because Commissioner Goodell reads the names teams submit to him, not what is listed on a mock draft. So what’s the point?
Mock drafts allow us to control that which we otherwise could not. They give fans temporary resolution between the end of one season and the beginning of the next. When a player retires, gets traded, or leaves via free agency it usually creates a hole on the roster that needs to be addressed. Fans want to know how that team is going to address the need, but there is a long time to wait between the Super Bowl in February and pre-season football in August. That is where mock drafts come in handy.
While there is absolutely no assurance that a team will draft who the experts say they should, fans are often afforded peace of mind knowing that there is a logical solution out there. For example, the Carolina Panthers need to address vacancies at quarterback, defensive line, and wide receiver. As a fan, I get panicky considering what the Panthers will do in the upcoming draft. But with a quick glance at a few mock drafts I have learned that most sources tend to believe Carolina will address needs at wide receiver when their first selection rolls around. While I may not agree with that call I at least know what to expect, even if it is more disappointment (for the love of all that’s right, draft a quarterback!)
It is all really a mental thing. Not to get all psychological on you, but the human brain wants to resolve things. For example, let me demonstrate something I learned in college. If I were to sing, “nuh nuh na na, nuh nuh na na, hey hey hey…” your mind would probably resolve the missing line “goodbye.” I am willing to bet you probably finished the phrase in your mind. Why? Because your brain wants resolution. It is simple human nature. Mock drafts give us the satisfaction of resolution, at least until the draft happens.
In the end, this debate is an open and shut case. Mock drafts have value. Fans may not like that the predictions start rolling before the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl is over, but you do not have to follow each draft. Just check out one or two that you trust a few weeks out from the real deal and you will be happier for it.
