The NFL 2010 Draft Likely Bust Debate… There is No Use Crying Over “Spiller”ed Milk

April 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Sports Geek.

For teams sitting among the top ten picks of the NFL draft each year there are generally two schools of thought when it comes to deciding who to select when the pressure is on and your team is on the clock. Do you take the player who best fits your team’s needs, or do you take the best available player?

While a case can be made for both strategies, I tend to find myself leaning more toward the side of the greatest team need. The notion that certain players are “too good to pass up,” even if you don’t need them, just seems foolish to me. That is like using your rent money to instead pay for a trip to Vegas just because “the deal was too good to pass up.”

Sure, you MIGHT get lucky and win enough to buy a house in the Hamptons, but odds are that by the time the trip is over you will have just wasted a lot of your time and money on flash that brought no real substance to your life.

More often than not, it is better to pay the rent first, THEN think about luxuries like a trip to Vegas. But when the Buffalo Bills selected running back C.J. Spiller as the ninth overall pick in the 2010 draft, it appeared that Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix just could not resist the impulse buy of a perceived “great steal.”

And a luxury is all that Spiller will be for the Bills. With Fred Jackson (over 1,000 yards on the ground last season) and Marshawn Lynch (who WOULD be amazing if he could stay out of trouble) already in the backfield, the Bills now have a very serious logjam at the running back position. Granted, that would be a high-class problem for some teams to have, but when you consider the fact that the Bills essentially have no quarterback and their offensive line couldn’t protect the guy in the pocket even if he WAS Jim Kelly reborn, depth at the running back position should be the LEAST of their concerns. Heck, it’s not even a concern, and THAT’S the concern.

Instead of addressing one of their VERY SERIOUS needs coming out of a disappointing six-win season, the Bills essentially decided that they were okay living in a run-down trailer park, as long as they had three Cadillacs sitting out in the front yard.

Is C.J. Spiller a tremendous athlete with great potential in the NFL? Sure.

Could he be the next Chris Johnson? Of course. But he could also be the next Curtis Enis, and the Bills are in no position to take that gamble right now.

While the Bills sit back and wait for Spiller to hopefully develop into LaDanian Tomlinson, their unimproved 30th-ranked rushing defense will continue to give up more points than their anemic, one-dimensional offense can match.

This creates a no-win situation for the Bills. Failure on the field will speak for itself, but his success will also detract from the team more than it can help it, because it will only come at the expense of an already successful running back (possibly two, if Lynch can keep his head on straight).

Even if Spiller develops into a Pro-Bowl caliber athlete for the Bills, he is ALREADY a draft bust. Not necessarily because he will fail on the field, but instead because he was the wrong choice for a team that will be unable to FULLY maximize his potential. He was not what the Bills needed, nor should he have been what they wanted. He is an unnecessary accessory that will simply distract from the real problems facing the Bills, rather than help to turn them into a legitimate contender in a division that features the Jets, Patriots, AND the Dolphins. He will be unable to solve any of the problems for the Bills, and will therefore ultimately fail to be a real contributor for the team.

I hope C.J. Spiller likes a part-time job on a last place team, because that is exactly who drafted him.

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Posted by Bleacher Fan

The NFL 2010 Draft Likely Bust Debate… Everything’s Bigger in Texas, Even Draft Blunders

April 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Bleacher Fan and Sports Geek.

“And with the 24th pick of the first round the Dallas Cowboys select… Slow-y McPersonal-Baggage… excuse me, I believe I may have read that incorrectly. I meant to say Dez Bryant.”

While those weren’t exactly the words NFL commissioner Roger Goodell uttered into the microphone, I believe they might as well have been. The Dallas Cowboys traded up to get the embattled former Oklahoma State wide receiver, but the move may have been more about making a splash than anything else. The simple fact that he is a Jerry Jones era acquisition makes me question Bryant’s potential. Additionally, Dez Bryant’s physical game is far from being the complete package as he lacks experience playing in a pro-style offense. Add to that the fact that he comes to Big D with more drama than a Jersey Shore marathon, and we are talking about a potential bust bigger than a Dolly Parton statue the size of Mount Rushmore.

In 2008, Dez Bryant proved that he was a talented receiver racking up 1,480 yards and 19 TDs, but that was then, and this is now. Bryant sat out most of last season with a suspension. A year off can put some rust on the machinery, and his game was far from flawless to begin with. In spite of Dez Bryant’s obviously gifted hands and his nose for the end zone, he lacks serious speed. Scouting reports have criticized Bryant’s lack of burst and deep speed. The NFL is all about speed. It is often said that the NFL is a much faster paced game than college football. I question the ability of Bryant to make the jump to the NFL as a result. On top of that, he has suspect route running. Dez Bryant did not play in a pro style offense in college. All of this means his rookie season will consist of him adjusting to the speed of the game, a different offense, a new playbook, and he will no longer be a big fish in a small pond – even more reason he looks like he will bust as quickly as a dollar store water balloon.

Dallas’ selection of Bryant can be described as a desperate reach at best. Jerry Jones can deny it all he wants, but the Dez Bryant pick was an attempt to make up for passing on Randy Moss. Unfortunately for Jones, until they build a time machine (which undoubtedly he would purchase and hang too low over the playing field at Dallas’ new stadium) he can never undo what was done. Instead his meddling seems to be making it worse. He has chalked up mistake after mistake with his pass catching personnel decisions (i.e. passing on Moss, bringing TO in, letting TO go, and trading for Roy Williams), but this one may take the cake. In an NFL that is increasingly airing things out, teams are feasting on a boomer crop of talent. Teams are signing and trading for difference making wide receivers at will, but Jones still attempted to fulfill Dallas’ need through the draft. While it is easy to say that drafting and developing a wide receiver is cheaper than over paying for an established talent, Big D has the money to do exactly that. At least you know what you are getting at the professional level instead of putting all your eggs in the basket of a player who sat out most of last season. Jones and company are also ignoring the fact that rookie wide receivers face an incredible learning curve in the NFL. This may make things harder on Bryant who will be saddled with huge expectations to perform immediately under the big bright lights in the Lone Star State. Maybe Jerry Jones does believe in him or maybe he just drank too much of Kiper Kool-Aid, but I simply do not believe in the upside of Dez Bryant.

But probably the biggest reason of all Dez Bryant will be a bust is his dramatic antics. Normally one might expect Babe Ruthless to love a notorious figure like Bryant simply because he is so controversial, but there is a big difference between Bryant and other dramatic players that have earned my respect. The difference is proven talent at the professional level. Players like Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinqo can be as crazy as they want and show it on the field and off, but they have earned the right to do so by proving they are better than average. Bryant hasn’t done that, yet more drama surrounds him than a high school cheerleader. These days Bryant is getting more press coverage than Tim Tebow because of Momma-Gate 2010. Stories about Bryant being asked about whether his mother was a prostitute have flooded sports media outlets. While admittedly he is not at fault for creating this commotion, he has not really tried to put an end to it either. Why? Because he’s dramatic. Just look at the whole Neon Deon fiasco. If he had been truthful and followed the rules he might have gotten another shot at winning the Heisman and improving his draft status. Instead the public is subjected to his protest about fairness. And this is the future of the Cowboys? I do not think so. This guy is draft joke fodder of Tim Couch and Akili Smith proportions. He is a mistake and will prove it to the world soon enough.

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Posted by Babe Ruthless

The NFL 2010 Draft Likely Bust Debate… Kareem Jackson is Busting Out

April 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Bleacher Fan.

When first discussing this topic for the Web site, and after explaining to Loyal Homer which type of “bust” we were going to write about, I decided that there are two angles to take on this debate. First is the obvious angle that counters every heap of criticism Bleacher Fan has poured on the head of Tim Tebow thus far (seriously, fellas, get a room). That angle is controversy. Or I could take a more studious approach and do a careful analysis of the players and the various team needs and determine which player is most likely to struggle when the pressure and expectations are ratcheted up under the furious pace of the regular season.

Yep, you guessed it. Sports Geek chose the option with “studious” in it.

The draft is always interesting because the farther down the draft board a player is, the more likely they are not the desired impact player teams seek out. Even if a player is drafted late in the first round, they are no longer the game-changing player that every team entering the draft wants. Instead, they are forecast as solid contributors and probable starters.

So, with those relatively reasonable expectations in mind, it is clear to me that the supposed jewel of the Houston Texas abysmal draft – first round pick and 20th overall, defensive back Kareem Jackson out of Alabama – will be the under the radar bust from the 2010 NFL Draft.

The Texans did have a need at corner with the departure of Dunta Robinson. But, the pressure and expectations that accompany playing cornerback in a division where teams must face the Colts and Peyton Manning twice a season is a great deal to expect of a raw rookie. The raw nature to Jackson’s game is unavoidable. He hails from Alabama, a good team that played few pass happy teams. In short, he simply has not played enough teams against great – or even good – receivers to develop his coverage skills. Plus he entered the draft as a junior. Some may look at that fact as a positive, meaning he has more time to develop. That’s fine, except the NFL is professional football. It’s not a developmental league, it’s a professional league. Learning is for the arena league. The standard for a first round pick must be higher.

Here is an excerpt from the first paragraph of the scouting report on Kareen Jackson:

Jackson isn’t compact or balanced in his drop when asked to play up close to the line of scrimmage. He has a tendency to get too overextended in his base and struggles keeping his feet under him when asked to open his hips and run. He lacks a great first step out of his transition and will allow receivers to get behind him vertically. He isn’t overly physical when asked to press off the line and likes to get his hands on receivers downfield but isn’t a guy who will consistently reroute off the line.

Well, that is not exactly a ringing endorsement for a first round draft pick.

I am not a coach for the Houston Texans, and I cannot presume to understand the reasons why the Texans would grab a player like Jackson at 20 when a guy like Kyle Wilson was still available at 29 to the New York Jets. Here is an excerpt from Wilson’s scouting report, a player who I believe will not be a bust:

Wilson showcases good flexibility and balance in press coverage and has the confidence to play up near the line and to get in the faces of receivers. He looks fluid when asked to turn his hips and run with his man. Wilson does a nice job of staying with receivers and forcing them to widen their downfield patterns toward the sideline.

That’s more like it. Neither player is perfect. Both have flaws. But Jackson is a work in progress at a high pay grade. His draft position and the expectations on him playing against Peyton Manning twice a season will doom him to obscure bust status.

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The Early MLB All-Star Voting Debate… The Sooner the Better

April 30, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Sports Geek.

This is not the first time that we have broached the topic of fan voting for All-Star ballots among professional sports.

The recurring theme through these debates seems to be the fact that the term “All-Star” is very much open to interpretation. To some, like Sports Geek, it should be defined as the best (usually by some statistical standard). To others it could mean the favorite, or in Babe Ruthless’ case, the Yankees. Although the definition of the term All-Star was not the subject of this debate, the arguments presented by both Babe Ruthless and Sports Geek were once again clearly influenced by their own perceptions of who should or should not be deemed as an All-Star.

I cannot deny Sports Geek the fact that it is virtually impossible to identify who the best players of mid-season will be so early in the season. With only three weeks gone, and two whole months to go, a LOT can change on the various leaderboards of baseball. A player who has started the season hot may hit a slump that extends for the next six weeks of the season, taking them completely out of consideration as the best in their respective position. Likewise, a player could have a slow start in April, but by the time May rolls around they are playing lights-out baseball and rapidly climbing to the top of the charts.

Where I ultimately disagree with Sports Geek, however, and the reason that I am awarding the verdict to Babe Ruthless, is specifically for his insistence that a) the fans don’t always vote for the right people (meaning that they are not the people that Sports Geek would have voted for), and b) that early voting negates the opportunity to consider events that may happen in late spring/early summer.

The belief that sports fans in general are misguided, or essentially must “get out of their own way” is one that I adamantly disagree with. The assumption that fans in general are unable to collectively make a qualified decision as to who should be an All-Star could not be more wrong – a fact PROVEN by the Manny Ramirez situation in 2009.

When the voting kicked-off for the 2009 All-Star team, Manny Ramirez found himself at the top of the list, despite the fact that he was on suspension for using banned performance enhancing drugs. The idea that Ramirez could still make the All-Star roster while serving a 50-game suspension was laughable, and it would have greatly diminished the quality of the game.

The reason that Ramirez found himself so high on the vote list, though, was because many of those votes came in BEFORE he was suspended. Once the news broke that he violated baseball’s PED policy, his stock plummeted, as did his fan support. By the time the All-Star game actually rolled around, Ramirez was nowhere to be seen… the fans got it RIGHT!

The All-Star Rosters from 2009 were absolutely populated by the best in baseball. While people may argue the merits of one player over another, it is hard to deny that every single one of the players who participated in last year’s All-Star game was worthy of their selection.

Babe Ruthless unequivocally won the debate (as he predicted he would) by raising the point that All-Star fan voting is not a “one and done” deal. The first votes of April 20th do not present the only opportunity to vote for an All-Star. Likewise, the leaders today may not even be among the top ten vote-getters by the time the actual event rolls around.

Ironically, it is that very fact that helps to ensure for all of the Sports Geeks out there that the “best” players DO make the All-Star roster. By allowing for such a WIDE span of time, the voters in baseball have AMPLE opportunity to educate themselves, and essentially update or correct their votes as new happenings arise. Think of it as an insurance policy to help guarantee that, over the course of time, the best players will ultimately rise to the top.

If voting were condensed into a shorter period, it would be much more easily influenced by recent events. By starting fan voting early in the season, it becomes a fluid process that is essentially updated as the season progresses. Over time, the players who were little more than a flash in the pan will fade into irrelevance, while those who remain consistently among the top performers in the league will steadily climb to the top. The end result is that the players who sustained the most fan support (whether through statistical dominance or by some other criteria) are the ones who will play in mid-July.

Regardless of how you define the term All-Star, early season fan voting is good for the game. For the business of baseball, it helps by ensuring that the players who generate the greatest fan support over the greatest length of time get to participate (i.e. a satisfied customer base). For the players, it helps to ensure that those who can SUSTAIN the best performance will have the greatest opportunity to earn votes.

Everybody wins with early voting (except Sports Geek)!

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Posted by Bleacher Fan

The Early MLB All-Star Voting Debate

April 29, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Babe Ruthless and Sports Geek.

Today is Thursday, April 29, 2010.

The 2010 MLB season is only 25 days old, and we are a full two months away from the All-Star break. Despite that lengthy gap in time, All-Star fan-voting kicked off on April 20, and has been going strong for over a week already. That means that fans of baseball were given an opportunity to vote for their 2010 All-Star selections only 16 days into a season that will span six months.

That wide timeframe for All-Star voting creates a lot of opportunity for things to happen that can influence the voters, both for good reasons and for bad.

So our question for today is: Does fan voting for the MLB All-Star Game begin too early?

Sports Geek believes that it does begin too early in the season, while Babe Ruthless disagrees, and will argue accordingly.

Who do you agree with? Vote early, and vote often!

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The Early MLB All-Star Voting Start Debate… A Royal All-Star Game?

April 29, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Babe Ruthless.

Another season, another desperate promotional crawl toward the MLB All-Star game this July. And, of course, if you promote something enough through various media outlets then it simply MUST be important, right? That’s the only possible explanation. Well, if that’s the rule you live by, I hope you’re enjoying your Furby and Pet Rock. I have some GREAT Snake Oil I’d like to sell you, too.

Too often sports marketing becomes about repetition of message and not quality of product. No example better illustrates this fact like Major League Baseball’s promotion of All-Star voting for fans. Fans are asked after a short three weeks of actual baseball to vote on which players deserve to play in the All-Star game – you know, that game that decides home field advantage for the World Series. Sure, it is an exhibition game, but it is also a game designed to award the best league with home field advantage. Are you ready to pick those players in April, knowing full well that those players might be deciding if your team gets home field advantage in the World Series? I know I’m not.

This debate depends entirely on context. What is the context for the fans voting in the All-Star game? Are fans expected to pick the best players across the league to represent their preferred league in the All-Star game? Or, are fans simply voting for their favorite players? It seems that there is a substantial disconnect here. Fans are voting based on popularity in the current structure. Allowing fans to vote after three weeks of actual games is absurd because fans have very little sample size to go off of. The kicker is, of course, that the All-Star game is a game fans and players alike want to win.

So, to recap. Fans want to vote for their favorite players early and often. A smaller faction of fans, coaches, and players want to win the game to secure home field advantage in the World Series… a goal that the best players are required to accomplish. The equation simply does not add up, and the early voting perpetuates the problem. Any democratic situation requires the electorate be informed, but in this case the electorate is misinformed with bad information with a small sample size.

Popularity dictating the vote does not seem to make sense, then, because, popular players are not always the best players. And, the inverse is true also in that the best players are not always popular. The problem is, the best players a few weeks into April will not be the best players still after June 1. Consider this very real scenario, folks. If voting were ended right now here is a likely starting lineup for both sides:

American League
1B Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
3B Ty Wiggington, Baltimore Orioles
SS Yuniesky Betancourt, Kansas City Royals
LF Scott Podsednik, Kansas City Royals
RF Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians
CF Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle Mariners
C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
P Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
DH Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers

National League
1B Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
2B Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves
3B Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
SS Ryan Theriot, Chicago Cubs
LF Andre Ethier, L.A. Dodgers
RF Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago Cubs
CF Michael Bourn, Houston Astros
C Ivan Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
P Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets
DH Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

Do those lists showcase the best talent in MLB, across the board, that is most deserving of an All-Star game apperance? No. Some of the players deserve recognition, but many will likely fade after the adrenaline of April wears off. And frustrated All-Star managers will be left holding the bag. I mean, do the Royals REALLY deserve that much All-Star attention? As a business issue – are fans going to PAY to see the stars from ROYALS? No, but then we’re back at the popularity scenario where the best players are not guaranteed a roster spot. The entire conundrum can be avoided easily if fan voting does not begin until a reasonable amount of baseball has been played.

Plus, if the World Series home field advantage depends on this game, why aren’t the selected managers able to build the type of club they want in order to win the game? Taking fan voting completely out of it, there is potentially a great deal at stake. It doesn’t make sense to put every manager in a difficult situation by forcing underqualified players on them in a playoff series that is a must win should their team reach the World Series.

If fans must be included in the voting, at least recognize that there is no baseball value in beginning the vote this early. It is an effort to pander to fans – an effort I find both insulting and useless. There are some aspects of the game that should be taken seriously, like contracts and championships. Opening the vote even earlier to fans makes a mockery of contracts by triggering All-Star incentives in contracts for players that do not deserve them, and by forcing less skilled players on managers charged with the responsibility of winning a game.

Allowing fans to vote at all is enough. Opening the vote up after three weeks into the season just stuffs the roster with questionable players and works against the goal of the game being taken seriously. Restore pride in the All-Star game… or just don’t bother.

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Posted by Sports Geek

The Early MLB All-Star Voting Start Debate… Never Too Soon For All-Stars

April 29, 2010

Read the opposing argument from Sports Geek.

It is never too early to starting voting for in players for the All-Star game!

It is called the All-Star game for a reason, because the rosters are comprised of stars. I know… the concept is simply mind boggling, isn’t it!? But, I digress. Since the singular requirement to be on the team is that a player be designated by the fans as an All-Star, one might ask the question, “What constitutes an All-Star?” The answer is quite simple –virtually any criteria that you can think of.

The term All-Star is defined uniquely by each voter. Some fans vote for their favorite players, regardless of current performance, while other fans vote for players they think are having the best seasons. And if you are like Babe Ruthless, you vote simply for the Yankees for every position on the AL ballot and the weakest players on the NL ballot, because after all home field advantage in the World Series is on the line (whether you like it or not). There really are no wrong ways to define the term All-Star, unless you are referring to any member of the Boston Red Sox.

It is because of this flexibility in the definition of the term All-Star that I feel I have unquestionably won today’s debate. If you can determine who the All-Stars are using any criteria you desire, then there can certainly be no date too early to start voting. Surely my logic driven friend, Sports Geek, can see that (Editor’s note: He can’t.).

I will concede the point that if I were going to vote for the best all around players in baseball it seems a tad early, but the ballot is not a one and done deal. Fans may vote up to 25 times per email address. The current voting system allows fans ultimate responsiveness to the current performance of players. A fan could almost vote twice a week based on player performance. So it is not as if anything is lost in starting the balloting process at this point in the season.

Having an overwhelming fan influence in the All-Star game is actually a claim to fame for MLB. Last season MLB collected an astonishing number of votes, more than 223 million. That overwhelming total is due in no small part to the use of Internet balloting, but it still shows that there are ravenous baseball fans out there eager to have their voices heard. Who is to say that their opinions are any less valuable at the beginning of the season? If they want to vote for a player who is having a surprisingly hot start, like the Chicago White Sox’s Andruw Jones or the New York Mets’ Mike Pelfrey, then let them. Or if they want to vote for former All-Stars that are not exactly performing at the top of their game, like the New York Yankees’ slugger Mark Teixeira (selected in 2005 and 20009) or the Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Raul Ibanez (selected in 2009), then that is certainly their prerogative.

Baseball remains America’s pastime and in my opinion the most patriotic of all sports, with the one possible exception being competitive terrorist waterboarding. It is only fitting that the most patriotic of American sports include so much democratic choice, and so much freedom. It may not be necessary to open the All-Star voting now, but there certainly is not something fundamentally wrong with it either. It does nothing to harm baseball. In fact it has sports blogs and media sources around the country abuzz with discussion of the topic, and that, my friends, is free exposure.

So, here’s to you Bud Selig, for opening the ballots early enough to keep us all interested in baseball. You are my write in candidate for All-Star this season.

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Posted by Babe Ruthless

The Most Surprising MLB Move in April Debate…The Brilliant or Desperate Zambrano Move

April 28, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Bleacher Fan.

My oh my how the mighty have fallen.

Once a proud and emotional leader of the Chicago Cubs, the team’s supposed ace is now relegated to bullpen duty, making Carlos Zambrano the highest paid setup man in the history of baseball.

As a starter, Zambrano’s early season ERA was over eight, and manager Lou Piniella had quite enough. Who can blame him? Not only was Zambrano’s ERA out of control, his signature emotion was gone. In short, Sweet Lou did not believe that Zambrano CARED about his struggles. Of the long list of things that make Sweet Lou’s face twitch, apathy is near the top. While seemingly deserved, the most surprising move in April is Zambrano’s sudden move to the pen.

Zambrano has stunk this season, even after a couple of improved performances out of the pen. His ERA is still a ridiculous 6.85. After giving up ten home runs all of last season in 169.1 innings, Zambrano has already served up four dingers in just 22 innings. Yikes.

Aside from the rough start from the right hander, it is generally hard to blame Lou for the move. Zambrano has always had “the stuff” of an ace, but never the psyche. He is prone to intense emotional outbursts and to extreme pitching efficiency when he is on, using few pitches to set down the side in order. Since the Cubs have blown some leads early in the season, primarily because a young bullpen was unable to hold leads late in the game, the gaping hole in the late innings was obvious. Zambrano has the best pitches and mentality for the bullpen of any other player in the starting rotation.

Zambrano fits because the alternatives are not good. Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny, surprising Cubs starters for the 2010 campaign, are actually pitching well in the rotation right now. Randy Wells is probably the staff’s best pitcher, and Ryan Dempster its most consistent. The odd man out is clear, and Zambrano belongs in the pen.

The problem is that pesky – and enormous – contract. He is due $17.875M in 2010, $18M in 2011, and $19.25M. Obviously this is the salary of an ace, not a setup guy. But, he also has a full no trade clause. The Cubs are stuck with Zambrano, and they must get SOME value out of him. As a result, along with Zambrano’s lip service to “doing whatever is needed to help the ballclub,” the best way to make Zambrano valuable is to use him out of the pen.

The move is not just surprising for its clarity and swiftness, but also for its mismanagement. Of course it’s the right decision; of course something needed to be done quickly. But Zambrano somehow still maintains that this is a temporary move. For this to be effective either as a psychological ploy, or to strengthen a weak bullpen, Zambrano must be convinced of its seriousness. Failure to do so neuters the effectiveness of this move.

Cubs’ fans should hope that the move sticks, regardless of the weird contract situation. Zambrano makes more sense as a bullpen pitcher than a starter, even with a no hitter under his belt. The less time Zambrano has on the mound, the less time he has to get mad at his defense and frustrated with the catcher recommended pitches. It is good for his blood pressure – and for the fans’ blood pressure.

Winning has a way of making surprising moves look brilliant. Losing makes them look knee-jerk and desperate. I am curious to find out which type of move this is. My Sports Geek hunch tells me it’s brilliant.

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Posted by Sports Geek

The Most Surprising MLB Move in April Debate… Dusty is “Harang”ing Himself Out to Dry

April 28, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Loyal Homer and Sports Geek.

The most surprising April move of 2010 was actually not a move that SHOULD have taken place, but one that didn’t. I don’t care that he won last night, I am still absolutely SHOCKED by Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker’s insistence at keeping Aaron Harang in his starting rotation.

We need to look past the immediate recency of last night’s performance, in which Harang gave up only two runs over a six-inning stretch to notch his first “W” since August 9 of last year. As impressively as he pitched last night, Harang has proven that his 6-2 win over the Astros will be the exception, rather than the norm. Prior to last night’s performance, Harang was 0-3 with an ERA of 8.31, and THAT is the REAL Aaron Harang.

I know what you are thinking – the ENTIRE Reds rotation is struggling right now, so why single out Harang?

The answer is simple. You have to start somewhere.

Top-to-bottom, the Reds rotation is in trouble. As of this morning, Harang and his four fellow starters (Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake) have combined for a record of only two wins (half of which came thanks to Harang’s efforts last night) to SEVEN losses! With that horrible record, rookie Mike Leake is the only starter so far this season with an ERA below 5.00, and his is not THAT impressive at 3.92. But compared to Cueto’s 5.73, or the +7.00 numbers coming from Bailey, Arroyo, and Harang, Leake looks like a Cy Young candidate!

The difference between Harang and his four colleagues is that Harang’s struggles are not new. Since 2008, he has won only 13 total games, and has lost 34. By comparison, there were 41 other pitchers in 2009 who won more games in ONE season than Harang was able to in TWO full seasons. Additionally, his 17 losses in the 2008 season were tied with Barry Zito for the most in the National League by a starting pitcher. He followed that up with 14 losses last season (tied for the second most in the NL), and is on pace for another league-leading performance as he trails the current NL loss-leader, Charlie Morton of Pittsburgh, by only one.

Clearly, Harang has not been the same pitcher that he once was, and at some point (to quote Van Wilder, Sr.) Dusty Baker needs to “realize a poor investment, and cut your losses… Write that down.”

As we have already discussed here at TSD, Dusty Baker is (or at least SHOULD BE) on thin ice in Cincinnati. He has not had a winning record as a manager since his 2004 season with the Chicago Cubs, and with a 9-11 record to start off the 2010 season (already sitting four games behind the division leading St. Louis Cardinals), he is in no position to cry, “Trust me, I know what I am doing.”

The Reds have lost the luxury of sitting back and waiting for slumps to break. If they want any hope of chasing the Cardinals in the NL Central, they need to start making some aggressive changes now. While Baker cannot realistically retool his entire starting rotation all at once, a journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. That one step SHOULD have been to get Harang out of the rotation before he can do any more damage. Instead, he kept Harang in as a starter, who probably pitched just well enough to buy himself the leeway of four or five more losses over his next six starts.

Surprisingly (and foolishly), Baker is seemingly staking the future of his already shaky Reds career on the performance of a starting pitcher who has clearly set a losing tone for the whole rotation. While none of the starters for the Reds have been impressive (although Mike Leake has been a bright spot), Harang continues to lower the bar on pitching expectations in the Queen’s City.

It looks like Dusty Baker will be content in going down with the ship.

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Posted by Bleacher Fan

The Most Surprising MLB Move in April Debate… Can The Mets Really Keep This Up?

April 28, 2010

Read the opposing arguments from Sports Geek and Bleacher Fan.

I was contemplating over this debate for a day or so. The strong play of the Padres and the extension of Ryan Howard’s contract were issues that originally came to mind. But you know, I thought about how the first 20 games of the season had gone, and I must say it became clear to me what I must argue. The most surprising move in April is the move of the New York Mets to first place.

If you will recall, back on April 19, I said that Omar Minaya was on the hot seat. And I still think he may be, so I am not letting him off the hook. But after ten games at the start of the season, I recall thinking to myself, “My gosh, the Mets are the worst team in the league. They are worse than the Pirates and Nationals!”

At the time the lineup was really struggling. Jose Reyes was not back to full strength. Jason Bay was hitting under .200. The only guy hitting at the time was Jeff Francoeur. It was a lineup that consisted of eight easy outs. And while the lineup still isn’t hitting like it is capable, it is definitely getting there. Jerry Manuel mixed things up a bit. He slotted Reyes in the third spot in the lineup, in front of Jason Bay, David Wright, prized rookie Ike Davis, and Francoeur – and it has worked. The Mets are riding a six game winning streak and currently sit a half-game ahead of the Phillies for first place in the East.

Davis has definitely been a spark for the team. Since getting called up on April 19 he has hit .333 and the Mets have gone 8-1. He has been a stabilizing force at first base, a position the Mets have had a surprisingly tough time filling in recent years with the injuries to former first baseman Carlos Delgado. For all of the attention Braves rookie Jason Heyward has gotten so far, especially from yours truly, Davis is quietly making an early splash, so don’t hand that rookie of the year trophy to Heyward just yet.

The pitching staff has been surprisingly strong in the beginning also. We all know how dominant Johan Santana can be. That is not a shock. But did anyone think that Mike Pelfrey would be 4-0 with an ERA at 0.69 at this point? This is MIKE PELFREY, guys! Now I am certainly not insisting that I think he will keep that up. He has not become Santana, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez overnight. Pelfrey has helped pace the Mets pitching staff to an overall ERA of 3.11 through Tuesday’s action, which is currently good enough for third in the league. Keep in mind that coming into the season the pitching staff was supposedly a weak spot.

It is most definitely early, and the Mets will be having a key “measuring stick” battle this weekend with the Phillies. But for the first 20 games of the season the surge of the Mets from worst to first has been the biggest move. And remember, there is a guy on the disabled list named Carlos Beltran who will provide a big boost when and IF he returns.

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Posted by Loyal Homer

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