Read the opposing argument from Babe Ruthless.
Imagine a college football player who has just wrapped up his final year in the NCAA ranks. Here is the rundown for this “anonymous” player:
- He is small in size at only 5-feet 11-inches and does not even weigh 200 pounds
- He played for a program that is traditionally considered mid-level within a non-BCS Conference
- Although he started as a true-freshman for this mid-level program, he amassed less than 3,000 total rushing yards over a FOUR year career (that is only 750 yards per season) and has less than 35 touchdowns (less than nine TDs per season) against other mid-level defenses such as Tulane and the University of Alabama-Birmingham
Does that sound like a first-round draft pick to you?
Well it did not to the NFL scouts, many of whom placed East Carolina running back Chris Johnson as a second-round draft pick at best for the 2008 NFL Draft. That was, of course, before the NFL Scouting Combine.
During the NFL Combine, Johnson came in with a class that included other more highly-touted running backs like Darren McFadden, Johnathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Rashard Mendenhall. Clearly not your prototypical running back, Johnson arrived in Indianapolis as the runt of the litter.
Then came the 40-yard dash.
During the dash Johnson turned in what is generally regarded as the fastest 40-yard dash time ever, clocking in at an astonishing 4.24! That was faster even that the speedy McFadden (4.27), who was considered the marquee running back in the draft class.
Ultimately, Johnson’s performance at the NFL Scouting Combine helped to impress the Tennessee Titans, who bumped him all the way up to the top of their draft board… where they selected him as the 24th pick overall during the first round of the draft. Despite his impressive showing at the combine, many analysts were still negative toward the Titans’ choice, claiming the team went too high for a running back who lacked the size necessary to compete in the NFL.
It is the Tennessee Titans who are laughing now, though. After just two years in the NFL, Johnson has already rushed for more than 3,200 yards, and last season became only the sixth running back in history to gain more than 2,000 yards in a single season. As for those other running backs from his class, Johnson is the only one from that group to have reached the Pro Bowl at this point in his very young (and still promising) career.
That example shows what the NFL Scouting Combine offers. It is not intended to be a litmus test of how the players can handle in-game situations. They do not evaluate a player’s ability to shed blocks, read pass protection, or properly read the quarterback’s eyes in order to anticipate the pass. It is instead an opportunity for scouts to consider the football readiness of a player.
Additionally, it presents NFL Scouts with the very unique opportunity of seeing all of their prospects in one place, to evaluate them on even ground. While it may be impossible to recreate in-game situations during the combine, there are still certain tests that may make a difference in how to evaluate one player compared to another.
Sports Illustrated columnist Peter King cited an NFL source as saying that most NFL teams view their draft board as being 90 percent ready BEFORE the combine, because 40 times and vertical jumps “have nothing to do with football.” While that may be true, this NFL source is nonetheless acknowledging the fact that 10 percent of decisions are still undecided, which makes all the difference in the world.
For example, an NFL scout may be evaluating several prospects for their offensive tackle position, a position he intends to fill after in the third round. In-game performance for each of the prospects has been taken into consideration, and has helped the scout to essentially prioritize his targets. During the combine, however, one of his targets significantly underperforms in several different tests. His bench press is sub-par, as is his 40-yard dash time.
While those measurements have no direct correlation to whether or not this player will be successful as a pass-blocker in the NFL, they do provide some critical insight that this player may lack the strength and speed necessary to protect a quarterback against the extremely athletic defensive linemen in the league. Without the strength and speed that many of his peers have, he may find difficult to properly execute the blocks necessary to keep his quarterback upright.
Will the combine bump a player all the way to the bottom of the list? Probably not. It does, however, serve as a tiebreaker in evaluating talent that would otherwise seem comparable. Before an organization from the NFL potentially invests MILLIONS of dollars into these players, don’t you think they want to know EVERYTHING about them, including how fast they run, how strong they are, and how “smart” they are?
Scouting is an inexact science, and scouts need all the help they can get. This is just one more very important tool that the NFL organizations can use to gauge the football readiness of each potential draft pick.
