Read the arguments from Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer about which game they believe is the BEST of this Thanksgiving weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! It is our first Thanksgiving in existence her eat TSD, so we are thankful that we’ve survived and that we have such wonderful readers (see the reader nominated badge we earned on the top right!). Thanks, everyone. We hope to still be cranking out the kind of sports content you like to read for a long time!
While today, and the weekend, is mostly about pro football, I like a college football game that SEEMS to be decided before the teams take the field. Not only is it easy to orient on a rooting interest, it sets up the possibility of seeing the unexpected. The unexpected happens less frequently in sports these days, so it is all the more welcome when it makes an apperance. The chance for the unexpected is precisely why the Florida State-Florida match up in Gainesville this Saturday is the best game of THIS weekend.
I anticipate the unexpected here because the situation just feels strange. Florida, the team that was believed to have the best defense in the country by many last season – and returned all of its starters this season – seemed to be set up to dominate the competition in what was widely regarded as the best conference in college football (though that presumption is rightly questioned now).
Florida’s defense has not really disappointed this season. It is ranked first overall in points allowed per game, second in yards allowed per game, and first in passing yards allowed per game. Those are excellent statistics through 11 games… especially when considering the 9.8 points allowed per game.
But we must also consider Florida’s competition, especially as it relates to the quality of the offenses the team has faced. Lest we forget, Florida has played one – that’s right, ONE – ranked team all season, the dubiously highly ranked LSU Tigers. At the time LSU was ranked fourth, but the Tigers have since lost three games and have plummeted to 17th… which is still questionable with three losses. The Tigers also have one of the worst offenses in college football, ranked behind Western Michigan, Buffalo, Ohio, Louisiana-Monroe, etc. Not impressive.
The other stout offenses the vaunted Florida defense has faced? Charleston Southern, Troy, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas (a team that actually can play some offense, scoring 20 and only losing by three), Mississippi State, a dreadful Georgia team, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and the impressive Florida International. The SEC stinks. While the defenses are good, the offenses are so bad that it inflates the perception of the league’s defenses. Florida has not played a good offense team, yet.
Now the Gators are facing a good – even excellent – offense for the first time this season. While Tebow will put up Tebow like numbers against the porous defense Florida State seems to have adopted for venerable defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews’ last season in Tallahassee, Florida State’s offense has been revived this season with Jimbo Fisher as the offensive coordinator. After losing junior quarterback Christian Ponder in a play at the end of the game against Clemson, EJ Manuel has come in and shown the ability to win by running the Florida State attack-style offense well enough. Manuel turned the ball over three times against Maryland, but has the ability to extend plays and scramble… the type of ability that is difficult for even good defenses to prepare for. For the first time, perhaps all season, Florida will face a team that is capable of scoring points against its defense. A lot of points. In fact, Florida State is the second best offense, statistically, in the ACC, ranking just behind the CJ Spiller led Clemson Tigers.
Florida State’s offense also ranks 26th nationally and converts nearly 50 percent of the time on third down. Manuel already averages, in a few brief appearances (including just one start), 5.2 yards per carry and a 65 percent completion rate. While it is true that Christian Ponder is a better quarterback, Manuel has stepped in effectively to this point, already notching his first collegiate win over the aforementioned Maryland (a team that shut down Clemson’s high powered offense).
Running back Jermaine Thomas has game breaking speed, too, with seven touchdowns and an average per carry north of five yards. As the season has progressed the Seminoles have run the ball more effectively. Florida should expect a balanced attack from a desperate team.
As Jimbo Fisher continues to improve as offensive coordinator in Tallahassee, he feels the pressure to construct a winning gameplan not just for the sake of the team, but for his future as future head coach. Florida State is a desperate team. Florida has “been there before” but the Seminoles are scratching and clawing for every inch, trying to regain elite statsus. In a big rivalry game where records are neutral but hatred is not, anything can happen. The circumstances surrounding this game – Florida expected to win the game, to win the SEC, to win the national championship game – is the perfect opportunity for Florida State – a team that appears down and drifting without its starting quarterback – to score a major blow in the rivalry.
Of course Florida is expected to win. Of course… except for the unexpected.
