Read the debate intro and Loyal Homer’s argument that four weeks into a season is too soon to fire a head coach.
I have a recommendation for the executive ranks of each NFL franchise: Watch the movie Titanic (no, Sports Geek, it is NOT so that we can debate just how “dreamy” Leo really is).
The Sinking Ship
There is a very important lesson to be learned that NFL execs may find valuable when studying the tragedy that unfolded on April 15, 1921. That lesson is to be constantly alert for signs of danger, and then take immediate measures when danger is identified.
At several key points in the unfolding of those fateful events, the leaders of the Titanic had the opportunity to take simple and small measures that would have helped avoid catastrophe. Instead, 1,517 people needlessly lost their lives, all thanks to egotism, pride, and a refusal to acknowledge certain facts that may have cast negativity on what was supposed to be a marvel of engineering.
It was reckless foolishness that led to the sinking of the Titanic, and the shame is that the tragedy SHOULD have been avoidable.
The general manager of a professional football team serves the same function as the Captain of a ship. Just as it is the Captain’s job to navigate a ship safely through the water, it is the general manager’s job to navigate a team safely through the season. They must be concerned not only with the day-to-day performance of their team, but must also be focused on long-term success. When a general manager can successfully identify warning signs that a team might be in danger, it is their duty to act accordingly and address that danger… rather than ignore the warning signs and hope to get lucky.
Is 0-4 Too Soon?
While Loyal Homer argues that four weeks into the season is too soon to pull the trigger on a coaching change, I actually believe that it might be too late! In all likelihood, a team that begins a season 0-4 will not be playing football in January. In fact, there has only been one team in history to begin a season at 0-4 and still make the playoffs – the 1992 San Diego Chargers – and they only did so by finishing the season with 11 wins in their final 12 games. As for going 0-5, there has NEVER been a team to lose the first five games of their season and still reach the playoffs in the NFL.
That means that the season is likely already over for an 0-4 team, and history has proven that it is DEFINITELY over for an 0-5 team. By then, it is too late to effect any positive change on the season if you still wish to compete for the playoffs.
The Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, and (possibly) the Carolina Panthers can all write-off their 2009 season as being over, because none of those teams will go 11-1 over the remainder of the season.
I am not advocating that these teams just pack up and call it quits in 2009. Instead, I am simply illustrating the fact that the ship may be on a course that is too late to alter, and for several of these teams, a change at the coaching position may be inevitable.
Why Delay The Inevitable?
Once the general manager or owner has lost faith in that coach, and the team has given no indication that they will be competitive for the remainder of this season OR for future seasons, then it is the organization’s obligation to make the moves necessary to right the course of the ship immediately.
When you consider the situation in San Francisco, and the manner in which Mike Singletary assumed the reigns of the 49ers, you see proof of the value that comes from correcting a mistake immediately, rather than trying to ride out the storm and picking up the pieces after the fact.
Singletary was named the head coach of the 49ers after the organization fired Mike Nolan, only seven games into the season. The 49ers had only won two of their first seven games, and decided it was time to make a change. It was the first smart thing the 49ers did in a very long time. Rather than ride out the season with Nolan, only to fire him as a formality at the close of week 17, the 49ers saw an opportunity to make an immediate change that could help right the ship. They were not going to make the playoffs in 2008, but they did have the opportunity to give their new head coach some “warm-up” time.
How did it work out for San Francisco? Singletary led the 49ers to a 5-4 record over the second half of the season, including wins in four of the team’s final five games. He was able to build off of that momentum in the offseason and has carried it into the current season, leading the 49ers to a 3-1 record and a two game lead in the NFC West Division.
Understandably, not every coaching change will be as successful as what took place in San Francisco. If, however, a general manager EXPECTS to lose with the current head coach, why not at least TRY to make an improvement?! The worst case scenario is that the team continues to lose, and is no better off than before. The 49ers are an example of a team with the foresight to see the iceberg in the water, and make the changes necessary to avoid hitting it.
It does not matter if it happens in week one of the season, or week 17. Failure to replace a head coach the INSTANT confidence is lost in their ability to perform is like seeing the iceberg in the water and still commanding your crew to move “full speed ahead.”
By the way, this verdict was crap!!