Read the debate intro and Bleacher Fan that the Washington Nationals got the better end of the Stephen Strasburg contract.
What a college career this pitcher had. He notched 25 wins against just seven losses, had an ERA of just 2.56, tossed seven complete games (three of which were shutouts), racked up 345 strikes outs and had a teeny WHIP of just 1.06. Impressive. Not the type of talent that comes through the Major League Baseball draft every year. So, it makes sense for that player to receive a record contract. And, Mark Prior DID get that record contract, $10.5M back in 2001.
Prior’s contract from the Chicago Cubs set the precedent for Stephen Strasburg’s contract from the Washington Nationals. Sure Strasburg’s contract exceeds the totals in Prior’s, $15.1M for Strasburg to $10.5M for Prior. But, in 2001 it was a record. (It is a good thing the Cubs did not take that bum that fell to fifth in that draft – Mark Teixeira).
Strasburg actually has better stats than Prior, too – thus the better contract (here is a side by side comparison of their college statistics from The Baseball Cube… FYI – great site). While Prior had three more wins, Strasburg’s ERA was nearly one entire run less than Prior’s. He also surpassed Prior’s strikeout total with 375 and four complete game shutouts. Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, played hardball and won a record contract for his client, the number one overall pick on the Major League Baseball amateur draft. It makes sense that Strasburg is getting the better end of the deal than the Nationals because, for starters, he has the largest contract ever for an MLB draft pick.
Another important reason Strasburg is getting the better end of this deal? Injuries. Prior is the perfect comparison because injuries have completely ruined a once bright pitching future. Yet, Prior’s five year deal let him reach salary arbitration quickly – and option he exercised to his gain. In 2006 – just four years after his rookie contract took effect – Prior opted out of the $2M guaranteed money and won salary arbitration for $3.65M and a one-year deal. Despite injuries and rehab assignments and countless simulated games, Prior won that salary arbitration hearing. How does this impact Strasburg? The Nationals did not buy out the first two arbitration eligible years in the contract (something Boras likely fought tooth and nail against). Right now the tentative target is for Strasburg to make his debut in the Majors in 2011. He will be eligible for salary arbitration in 2013 – just two years after Major League service time. If he pitches up to the tremendous hype, he will command a substantial raise. The Nationals had the opportunity to take a hard line on this issue, but did not. Their decision skews Strasburg’s deal even more in his favor.
This contract, down to the dotted i’s and crossed t’s, are all tilted in favor Stephen Strasburg. Of course the Nationals are getting a great pitcher (barring injury… here come the Prior comparisons again…). But, unlike football where a single rookie player CAN make a significant impact on a team, baseball teams need more than one good starter to contend. The Nationals have tied up a good bit of money in a player that will likely not be ready for the Majors, despite the talent, until 2011. If they spend money to build a contending team around Strasburg, but the time his arbitration hearing comes up in 2013 – after just two years of potential MLB service time – they may not be able to afford the star player they added pieces around.
The Nationals have a history of dubious personnel decisions. Strasburg is definitely a good draft pick and a good player to have on the roster. But the contract is so tilted in Strasburg’s favor that it is possible the Nationals will develop him – and pay him a LOT of money – but not reap the benefits of their substantial investment.
