Read Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer’s arguments for which division in the NFL will be the toughest in the 2009 season.
The toughest division in the NFL this season has nothing to do with 2008, and everything to do with 2009. An influx of talent, and necessary culture of change for the better, must be unmatched in any other division. With the topsy-turvy “what have you done lately” nature of the NFL, the secret to forecasting the toughest division in the NFL lies with the division with the most untapped potential. That division, without question, is the NFC North.
Rather than rookies peppering the new talent landscape in the NFC North, the new players come with tremendous experience and physical ability. Taking that into consideration, along with the fact that we are naming the TOUGHEST division, how can anyone argue against a division that includes premier linebackers Brian Urlacher and A.J. Hawk? The NFC North is synonymous with toughness, and 2009 is no exception.
The Chicago Bears focused their offseason on a single position, and vastly improved their outlook for 2009 by remaking the quarterback position. Jay Cutler offers control (as he exhibited in the third preseason game IN Denver), talent, and leadership. General manager Jerry Angelo also brought in future hall of fame left tackle Orlando Pace to protect Cutler’s blind side and also get more push on the left side in goal line situations. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner has also tailored the offense to Cutler’s liking, giving him plenty of long ball opportunities (to avoid the desire to force one) while also creating excellent check downs to running backs Matt Forte and Kevin Jones. The Bears have great special teams, too. Oh, then there’s the defense. While they were riddled with injuries in 2008, the entire defense returns healthy. Perhaps most importantly, the Bears are avoiding indecision and transition now. Eliminating former quarterbacks Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman are big helps, but also getting rid of perpetually injured strong safety Mike Brown was important. Certainty and consistent are the friends of winning teams.
Speaking of which, perhaps the team with the most upside and potential for 2009 is the team with the least movement in the 2008-2009 offseason. The Green Bay Packers got better by playing together and getting more comfortable on both the offensive and defensive sides. They have needed no big offseason acquisitions, no splashy trades, no tough losses to free agency. They were steady from a personnel standpoint. Normally this brings words like “plateau” and “status quo” to mind. But the Packers will improve. They have quarterback Aaron Rodgers, in my opinion the best draft pick from 2005 draft. All he did was throw for over 4,000 yards last season with strong and steady wide receivers Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. The running back position is more solid for 2009, too, with five capable running backs on the roster. Starter Ryan Grant is now a proven force in the league, but Brandon Jackson proved he is an excellent third down back and running option. Youngsters Kregg Lumpkin and rookie Tyrell Sutton are a good potential thunder and lightning type combination, and DeShawn Wynn has the type of balance and explosiveness all general manager’s seek.
The Minnesota Vikings were already strong on defense and special teams last season (how is this the first season where special teams coordinator is regarded as an “official” coordinator??). The offense needed to improve and become more consistent. It has, thanks to the late preseason acquisition of quarterback Brett Favre. Though some in the clubhouse have not welcomed Favre with open arms, his style and success will change all of that. Once open receivers are hit, along with the balance of running back Adrian Peterson, a good offense becomes a potentially big play offense. Playmaker Percy Harvin adds excitement to the mix, as well, improving the overall team speed and explosiveness. The defense was good last year and will remain good, frustrating good running games with the Williams brothers in the middle and creating havoc in the passing game with pass rush specialist Jared Allen.
And then there is the Detroit Lions. I will not insult anyone by saying they will be tough. But, three top notch teams in a division is pretty darn good. At year’s end, they will be better than any other division – this season’s version of the AFC East.
You may have read this entire article and still ask yourself, “How in the world can this moron pick a division that contained a 0-16 team as the toughest?” Simple – momentum. How can the Lions get any worse? That cannot. And there is a good chance they will be good. New coaches, fresh perspective, easy schedule, and low expectations. It is a good formula for surprising in the NFL. They will just have to get past the rest of their division, and that will be no easy task.
The reality and parity of the NFL dictates that it is impossible to forecast or predict anything. Making an unconventional, bold pick is the surest way to be labeled a moron in the preseason, and get forgotten when it actually happens. As I have pointed out before, bold is my middle name. I do not shy away from making a courageous proclamation. Especially when I feel I am right.
We are less than two weeks away from the start of the NFL season. The anticipation is building. Some starting positions have been decided, while others are still up for grabs. Once those are all settled the teams can focus on the season and made that seventeen week push to the playoffs. Some will have more difficult roads than others, due in large part to where they play – which division. For example, the NFC West and AFC West appear to be down once again. But several other division races are sure to be exciting up until Week 17. After evaluating all of the divisions, I have decided that the NFC East is the overall best division in the NFL.
One element that makes this race interesting is that all four teams are in cities that are in the top 10 in television markets. These teams do not lack for attention and it sure helps that all four are competitive. I am not sure that you can look at any other division and realistically say “Any team in that division can make the playoffs.” Last year, the four teams all had at least a .500 record. The only other division that could say that was the NFC South.
The Philadelphia Eagles, who made the playoffs last year as a wild card and advanced to the NFC conference championship, return a strong nucleus. Granted, some of the stars like quarterback Donavan McNabb and running back Brian Westbrook are getting older. But they added some potential playmakers by drafting wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and running back LeSean McCoy. Plus, you may have heard that they also picked up a backup quarterback. Some guy by the name of Michael Vick.
The New York Giants, the reigning division winner, struggled down the stretch without Plaxico Burress. I am not convinced they have addressed their offensive concerns in the offseason. Running back Derrick Ward left via free agency. The wide receiving core is young and inexperienced. Not to mention that last season’s defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, left to become head coach of the St. Louis Rams. With that said, the Giants are just two years removed from a championship, and they still have to be considered a threat to win the division. Eli Manning also has a new contract, so he will be itching to prove his worth and prove the critics wrong who say the Giants overpaid.
The Dallas Cowboys are America’s team, and this year they are America’s team without society’s newest reality TV star Terrell Owens. This is a big year for head coach Wade Phillips, too. Missing the playoffs is a real possibility, especially in this division. You know general manager Jerry Jones will be looking for a scapegoat if the Cowboys do not make the playoffs in their first year of playing in beautiful new Cowboys Stadium. Fortunately, plenty of weapons return. The key to the Cowboys is whether or not wide receiver Roy Williams can step up and become the number one receiver the Cowboys expect him to be. The playoffs are a realistic goal.
The Washington Redskins, after getting off to a very strong start, limped to a 2-6 finish. We all know Redskins owner Daniel Snyder refuses to sit still, and he proved us right again by giving an extremely big contract to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Perhaps no quarterback in the league is facing more pressure than Jason Campbell. After flirting with acquiring Jay Cutler and trading up to draft Mark Sanchez, the Redskins decided to stick with Campbell who is entering a contract year. Campbell is popular in the clubhouse, but it is his responsibility to get the Redskins back to the playoffs. Finishing 8-8 was the worst record in the division, which says a lot about the strength and the parity in the division.
All four of these teams can realistically make the playoffs. Can any other division say that? Maybe the AFC East. Maybe!! But the NFC East has a much stronger case and overall, from top to bottom, the teams are better. The division is the class of the NFL!
Read Sports Geek and Loyal Homer’s arguments for which division in the NFL will be the toughest in the 2009 season.
It’s football week at The Sports Debates! And what better way to kick it off than to take a look at which division in the NFL is going to be the toughest, most competitive in the league?
Sports Geek is arguing for the NFC North, and Loyal Homer is arguing for the NFC East.
As for Bleacher Fan, I asked myself the following three questions to try and determine which will be the division to watch in 2009:
2008 Performance (Was it a competitive division top-to-bottom last year?)
Personnel (Did all of the teams within the division get better in the offseason?)
2009 Schedule (Will the season provide a strong enough test for the division?)
There was only one division that I could answer ‘YES’ to all of the questions, and that was the AFC East.
2008 Performance
Going into the 2008 season, many expected the NFC East to be the toughest division in football. The New York Giants were reigning 2007 Super Bowl champs, and the Dallas Cowboys were a very popular preseason pick to represent the NFC in 2008. Also in the mix were the Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles, both with potential to upset the balance of power in the division. Top to bottom, the NFC East appeared to be the division to watch.
The 2008 season, however, proved those expectations wrong. Thanks to quarterback issues, the Cowboys and Eagles both had periodic struggles (Dallas collapsed after Tony Romo’s injury and Philadelphia had a minor mid-season controversy after benching Donovan McNabb). In Washington, the Redskins ended up being the most unpredictable team in football. They were able to win in Dallas, defeated the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals, and won both games against the Eagles (who also reached the NFC Championship game), but lost to the St. Louis Rams (who finished the season at 2-14), the Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1), and the San Francisco 49ers (7-9).
Instead, the AFC East ended up as the most exciting to watch. Entering week 17 of the season, the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots were both tied at 10-5, with the New York Jets one game behind at 9-6. There were many different playoff scenarios for the division. It was entirely possible that all three teams could finish tied at 10-6. It was also possible that ALL THREE teams could make the playoffs, or only ONE of the three could make the playoffs. Making the division race even more exciting was the fact that the Jets were scheduled to play the Dolphins that week.
When the dust settled, the Dolphins (who just one year prior finished with a league-worst 1-15 record) ended up clinching the division by defeating the Jets 24-17. The Patriots, who finished 2008 with a very impressive 11-5 record DESPITE losing Tom Brady in week 1, still somehow missed the playoffs, becoming the first 11-win team in over 20 years not to reach the postseason.
Personnel
All four teams have upgraded in the offseason. The most notable signings for each team are:
The Patriots expect to bring quarterback Tom Brady back this season (although a shoulder injury at the hands of Redskins defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth last weekend has some questioning his current health).
The Jets feel confident that they can successfully work their highly rated draft pick out of Southern Cal, quarterback Mark Sanchez, into their offense.
In Buffalo, the big news of the offseason was the signing of Pro Bowl wide receiver Terrell Owens
The Dolphins resigned their former Defensive Player of the Year, Pro Bowler Jason Taylor, after he spent the last season in Washington.
2009 Schedule
The AFC East will be facing off against the AFC South and the NFC South in 2009. While those divisions include a couple teams which could provide for easy pickings (primarily the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars), the majority of teams on their schedule are expected to perform very well this year. In 2008, the Jaguars were the only team to finish below .500, and four of the eight teams finished with more than 10 wins: the Tennessee Titans (13-3), Carolina Panthers (12-4), Indianapolis Colts (12-4), and the Atlanta Falcons (11-5). All four of those teams also reached the playoffs last season, and should provide some stiff competition for the AFC East in 2009.
When you break down all of the factors that make for exciting football to watch (talent, expectations, and challenges), the AFC East has it all. I expect the division race to once again go all the way to the last week of the season, and once again expect to see multiple teams also in the Wild Card hunt. In 2009, the best football will be played in the toughest division in the NFL – the AFC East!
Read Bleacher Fan and Loyal Homer’s arguments on which teams they feel could be a surprise contender for the BCS Title Game.
When the first AP Top 25 college football poll came out for the 2009 season, The Sports Debates headquarters was abuzz. You see, everyone here loves college football. We follow and write about all sports, but college football seems to have a special place in all of our hearts.
The top 10 of the poll is a who’s who among powerhouse programs for the 2009 season, as it should be. The top 10 is complete with the sleeper du jour, Mississippi (who I would have chosen if they had fallen to 11th in the poll).
My colleagues have attempted to make the easiest arguments, with Loyal Homer picking the 11th ranked team in LSU and Bleacher Fan picking the 12th ranked team in California (guess who picked first?). REAL bold move.
Bold is my middle name. Yup, Sports “Bold” Geek is selecting Notre Dame and encouraging all football fans these words. There are three primary reasons why I feel Notre Dame will surprise the college football world this season and make it to the BCS Championship game. (Side note: please do not misconstrue my argument in favor of Notre Dame as an endorsement of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook. I still think they are mostly Golden Domer Homers. I, on the other hand, am not. So, the following sarcastic but realistic Notre Dame argument is more of a reflection of the fact that I genuinely believe they have a chance.)
Reason #1: Pressure
Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis has to win a lot of games this year. He just has to. His arrogance is now wearing very thin. It is easy to be arrogant when you are winning a bunch of games and expectations are low. Now that expectations are high, the arrogance appears borne out of ignorance. It is Weis’ trademark arrogance that has landed him the coveted number one spot on a Top Five Villains in College Football list on ESPN. It is a good thing for Weis that no one hands out Super Bowl rings. He earned them and is a good coach. The NFL has tremendous pressure to win, and Weis stepped up every time. It is fair to expect him to do it again. He feels the heat on his seat and increasingly loud frustration of the boosters.
Reason #2: Schedule
It is almost unfair. For a team with 12 regular season games on their schedule against Division 1A opponents, any expert would be hard-pressed to find a weaker group. The great Notre Dame and their national footprint have them hosting Nevada in the first game of the season, then visiting a very weak Michigan program. The third game of the season actually promises to be one of the two tough games on their schedule (both of which are at home). In week three the Spartans from Michigan State visit, a storied rivalry with a program from East Lansing that has improved leaps and bounds under head coach Mike D’Antonio. If the Irish get by Michigan State, the only other tough game they face is when they host USC, led by a true freshman quarterback for the first time and a defense gutted by the NFL draft. Other than those two games, the Irish play at Purdue, host Washington, take their bye the week before USC comes to town, then hosts Boston College before traveling to Texas to play Washington State (THAT makes perfect sense, right), then home against Navy, at an perpetually underachieving Pittsburgh, hosting Connecticut, then at a weak Stanford. Not tough. Especially when considering reason number three.
Reason #3: Personnel
Sure, it is easy to say Notre Dame has “no talent” but it is really not true. Third year starter Jimmy Clausen returns at quarterback along with his favorite target, junior wide receiver Golden Tate. Junior running back Armando Allen returns to pace the running game and provide a dynamic. So, the skill positions are set with good talent. The offensive line is also very experienced with four seniors and one sophomore. Allen will find plenty of holes to run through. On the defensive side of the ball, all that is necessary to point out is that 10 starters are returning. Ten. There is plenty of depth and experience on defense for Notre Dame.
Holtz and Cook cannot claim Notre Dame will win it with a straight face because of their school ties. Objectively, I believe Notre Dame will legitimately surprise the college football world today. And I will gloat about my bold prediction when it does.
It is quite obvious that Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma are obvious picks to make it to the BCS National Championship game. It has been well documented on this website that they are each led by outstanding quarterbacks.
Today, we are going to go outside the box and take a look at teams outside of the AP Top 10. The current AP rankings lists some quality teams ranked from 11th to 25th, and after taking a closer look I think that the LSU Tigers have a chance to be a BCS sleeper.
After winning the BCS national title two years ago, the Tigers knew they were in rebuilding mode last year. Did they anticipate falling to 8-5? Probably not! But it was hard to overcome the loss of guys like defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey and quarterback Matt Flynn.
Despite the struggles at times during last season, head coach Les Miles (who gets a lot of grief, yet is one of Loyal Homer’s favorite coaches) and his team come into the season riding a wave of momentum following an absolute whipping of Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. The Tigers’ 38-3 victory over the Yellow Jackets (which I witnessed personally) was one of the more impressive victories of the bowl season last year.
Returning from that team is senior running back Charles Scott. It is very hard to stay under the radar at a high profile school like LSU, but nationally Scott is underrated. He finished last year with 18 touchdowns, including three in the bowl game. He did get some love from SEC coaches last season. So, if LSU does well this season he might get some love from the rest of the nation.
For me, the key to the season lies in the hands of quarterback Jordan Jefferson. After rotating between Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch last year, Jefferson took charge late in the season. He had a solid bowl game and LSU is looking for him to take a big step this season, just his sophomore season. Early signs from Tiger headquarters are that Jefferson is showing some strong leadership skills, and if he can transfer that to the field, the rest of the SEC – and maybe the nation – better look out.
One thing going against the Tigers is the schedule. They have to make conference road trips to Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss. And look who comes to Baton Rouge on October 10 – the mighty Florida Gators! You can bet that if LSU gets by UGA the week before, the buildup to that game will be tremendous. That game has been on Loyal Homer’s radar since the official schedule was released months ago.
Do I think the Tigers are a little overrated in the pre-season poll? Absolutely. Coming off a five loss season, I did not think they warranted a top 15 ranking. But, the opportunity is there for the Tigers to not only prove that pre-season ranking, but also climb higher and maybe, just maybe, sneak into that BCS championship picture.
All good things must come to an end, and for head coach Pete Carroll and his USC Trojans, the curtain may be falling on what has been one of the most impressive (and dominant) performances in college football over the past decade. The Trojans, who have won at least a share of the Pac-10 title for seven consecutive seasons, could be in danger of seeing that streak come to an end in 2009.
After losing 11 players from last season’s team in the NFL draft (including quarterback Mark Sanchez and the entire linebacking corps of Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews Jr, and Kaluka Maiava), the Trojans will be putting a lot of young and inexperienced players on the field in several critical positions. Most notably, Carroll announced earlier this week that true freshman Matt Barkley is starting at the quarterback position. While Barkley’s performance in training camp was strong enough to make him the first ever true freshman to start a season opener at USC, that does not mean it will be strong enough to claim an eighth consecutive Pac-10 crown.
The two teams most likely to challenge USC’s supremacy in the Pac-10 this year are Oregon and California. While Oregon returns two very dangerous offensive threats to the highest scoring team in the conference from a year ago, senior running back LeGarrette Blount and junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, they have a new head coach in Chip Kelly and may have some early struggles before finally settling in.
The California Golden Bears are a team full of upside and pose the most serious threat to finally ending USC’s streak at the top. Cal’s most exciting player to watch this season will be junior running back Jahvid Best. My pick as the dark horse for the 2009 Heisman Trophy, Best is an explosive playmaker that becomes a threat to score every time he is handed the ball. He finished second in total yards in the NCAA last year, rushing for 1,580 yards and 15 touchdowns along the way, and should at least match those totals this season.
Best, however, is not the only bright spot for Cal in 2009. The Bears are bringing back a very experienced group of players at wide receiver, including seniors Nyan Boateng and Verran Tucker. Junior Kevin Riley will also be returning behind center for his first full season at quarterback, after throwing for more than 1,300 yards, 14 touchdowns, and only six interceptions while splitting time with Nate Longshore in 2008.
Defense should be the strongest point for the Golden Bears in 2009. Eight of last year’s 11 defensive starters are returning to the field this season. Leading the defense is senior cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson, who last year racked up 70 tackles, two sacks, and four interceptions (on special teams, Thompson also had 344 punt return yards with a touchdown). Thompson anchors a defense that ranked in the top 15 in the nation for sacks in 2008, and ranked third overall for interceptions (picking off 24 passes, three of which were returned for touchdowns).
Also leaning in Cal’s favor this season is their schedule. During the 2009 season, the only road game that really poses a challenge for Cal is the September 26th matchup at Oregon (keep in mind that Cal has not lost to Oregon since 2005, including a win in Eugene in 2007). The rest of their road schedule includes games at UCLA, Arizona State, Stanford, and Washington. They get to play the “tougher” teams of USC, Oregon State, Arizona, and Washington State all at home, and their non-conference schedule includes Maryland and Eastern Washington at home, and a trip to Minnesota (who started 4-0 last season before losing six of their remaining nine games and do not look to be much improved for 2009).
Conditions seem right for California to make a strong run to the top of the Pac-10. Sure, they will need some help from Florida, Texas, or Oklahoma if they are going to push for the National Championship, but so will every other team in the nation! If Cal can finish the season as the Pac-10 champs, having beaten USC and Oregon, and with no more than one loss (which is entirely possible when you consider their returning talent and their 2009 schedule), look for them to be right in the thick of the National Championship conversation.
Stephen Strasburg is one of the more heavily hyped players to come out of the draft in recent memory. In fact, I challenge you to name any player that was drafted first overall in any of the previous drafts. The only one I knew was last year, and that is because Tim Beckham, the first overall pick, played his high school ball in Georgia – my home state.
It was known for some time that the Nationals were going to draft Strasburg. It was also known that it was going to be difficult to sign him, due in large part to the fact that Scott Boras was his agent. As we all known, Mr. Boras is notorious for playing hard ball for his clients.
Both sides presented interesting arguments. I first want to commend Sports Geek for introducing me to a new website that I was unfamiliar with. If you have not checked out The Baseball Cube yet, I encourage you to do so. In the argument, Sports Geek compared the contracts of Mark Prior and Strasburg. While we certainly hope Strasburg’s career turns out better than Prior’s has to this point, it was a fair comparison.
Meanwhile, Bleacher Fan stressed the importance of the Nationals signing Strasburg. They HAD to sign him. There was no question about it!
And you know what? I agree with… BLEACHER FAN!
If the Nationals had not signed Strasburg, there would have been public backlash against him and Boras. But there would also been an outcry from Nationals fans. Since moving over from Montreal, the organization has had very little to celebrate. The team is awful and has been awful for awhile. The positive vibe of a new stadium lasted all of one week last season. Fan support is dwindling by the day. This signing gives the Nationals hope. As Bleacher Fan indicated, the organization could not afford to let another first round pick slip through the cracks.
Time will tell if Strasburg has a successful career. He could be in the big leagues sooner than we all think. The Sports Debates wish him the best. The Nationals have not had a lot of good things to happen for them, but they hope the signing of Strasburg will lead to a better future. With the organization staring at perhaps another number one pick in next year’s draft, maybe things will turn around in D.C. Congratulations to the Nationals. And congratulations to Bleacher Fan!
I know that is a statement not heard very often, so I’ll pause for a moment to let it sink in!
I wish I could tell fans of the team that owns the worst record in the Majors that I was referring to last night’s game, but I cannot (big surprise!). Nevertheless, Nats fans need SOMETHING to be happy about, and this is one of those things!
What I am referring to is the deal reached last week between the Washington Nationals and pitcher Stephen Strasburg. In no way am I implying that Strasburg is a loser in the deal (anyone who signs a multi-million dollar contract is a winner in my book), but the Nationals definitely came out ahead on this one! After another disappointing season which, through the first half of August was defined by the federal investigation (and resignation) of general manager Jim Bowden, the Nationals DESPERATELY needed to have something positive to build on for next year. That positive became the signing of Strasburg.
Before the draft even began it was clear that an agreement between Strasburg (with agent Scott Boras) and the Nationals would be unlikely. Boras, who closed a deal between pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Boston Red Sox for more than $50M, made the statement that he believed Strasburg’s price should be “in the ballpark.” The implication of that statement was that he would be expecting close to $50M for Strasburg, in order to make the deal a reality.
When you consider Boras’ position, it looked like he had all the leverage in this negotiation. If the deal fell through, Strasburg would simply play independent ball somewhere and re-enter the draft next year to be signed by another team that would pay him AT LEAST as much as the Nationals were going to offer him. For the Nationals, however, the downside of failing to sign Strasburg was much steeper. Losing this deal would mark the second consecutive year the Nats would fail to sign their top draft pick, after being unable to sign pitcher Aaron Crow out of Missouri last season. They also appeared to be headed toward a last-place finish for the season, setting them up to go through the same agonizing negotiations next year with yet another top draft pick. The writing on the wall indicated that the Nationals may be willing to deal for just about any price. Sure, they would likely balk at the demand of $50M, but Boras obviously believed that he could get Strasburg close to that amount.
Despite that seeming desperation, there was some speculation that the Nationals would still hold firm and would not respond in the manner Boras seemed to expect. In fact, former Nationals general manager at the time, Jim Bowden, made the statement that the Nationals WOULD sign Strasburg, but not until “11:57pm on August 15th.” He predicted that the deal would be for $15M (perhaps if Bowden had been able to demonstrate that same clairvoyance in other aspects of his position, he would still be general manager for a much more successful Washington team!).
Well, the offer was made, and no one was surprised when Strasburg held out on accepting the $12M originally placed on the table. While the dollar amount made a record deal for a draft pick, it totaled $38M less than what Boras had implied as the expected dollar amount. After two months of failed attempts at negotiations, it appeared that the Nationals would once again lose out on signing their top draft pick, as Strasburg and Boras continued to demand more than the record amount being offered to them.
Literally with only seconds remaining (77 seconds to be exact) before the Nationals lost all rights to the number one overall pick from the 2009 draft they were able to close a deal which made Strasburg a member of the Nationals through the 2012 season.
With so much to lose (both in terms of money, or in terms of failing to retain another top prospect), the Nationals held firm despite an undeniable need to sign Strasburg, and still made a deal for $35M less than what Scott Boras had implied he would expect for his athlete. That makes the Nationals big winners! With absolutely no leverage to negotiate from, they still made THEIR deal by somehow convincing Strasburg that he needed the Nationals more than the Nationals needed him.
Read the debate intro and Bleacher Fan that the Washington Nationals got the better end of the Stephen Strasburg contract.
What a college career this pitcher had. He notched 25 wins against just seven losses, had an ERA of just 2.56, tossed seven complete games (three of which were shutouts), racked up 345 strikes outs and had a teeny WHIP of just 1.06. Impressive. Not the type of talent that comes through the Major League Baseball draft every year. So, it makes sense for that player to receive a record contract. And, Mark Prior DID get that record contract, $10.5M back in 2001.
Prior’s contract from the Chicago Cubs set the precedent for Stephen Strasburg’s contract from the Washington Nationals. Sure Strasburg’s contract exceeds the totals in Prior’s, $15.1M for Strasburg to $10.5M for Prior. But, in 2001 it was a record. (It is a good thing the Cubs did not take that bum that fell to fifth in that draft – Mark Teixeira).
Strasburg actually has better stats than Prior, too – thus the better contract (here is a side by side comparison of their college statistics from The Baseball Cube… FYI – great site). While Prior had three more wins, Strasburg’s ERA was nearly one entire run less than Prior’s. He also surpassed Prior’s strikeout total with 375 and four complete game shutouts. Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, played hardball and won a record contract for his client, the number one overall pick on the Major League Baseball amateur draft. It makes sense that Strasburg is getting the better end of the deal than the Nationals because, for starters, he has the largest contract ever for an MLB draft pick.
Another important reason Strasburg is getting the better end of this deal? Injuries. Prior is the perfect comparison because injuries have completely ruined a once bright pitching future. Yet, Prior’s five year deal let him reach salary arbitration quickly – and option he exercised to his gain. In 2006 – just four years after his rookie contract took effect – Prior opted out of the $2M guaranteed money and won salary arbitration for $3.65M and a one-year deal. Despite injuries and rehab assignments and countless simulated games, Prior won that salary arbitration hearing. How does this impact Strasburg? The Nationals did not buy out the first two arbitration eligible years in the contract (something Boras likely fought tooth and nail against). Right now the tentative target is for Strasburg to make his debut in the Majors in 2011. He will be eligible for salary arbitration in 2013 – just two years after Major League service time. If he pitches up to the tremendous hype, he will command a substantial raise. The Nationals had the opportunity to take a hard line on this issue, but did not. Their decision skews Strasburg’s deal even more in his favor.
This contract, down to the dotted i’s and crossed t’s, are all tilted in favor Stephen Strasburg. Of course the Nationals are getting a great pitcher (barring injury… here come the Prior comparisons again…). But, unlike football where a single rookie player CAN make a significant impact on a team, baseball teams need more than one good starter to contend. The Nationals have tied up a good bit of money in a player that will likely not be ready for the Majors, despite the talent, until 2011. If they spend money to build a contending team around Strasburg, but the time his arbitration hearing comes up in 2013 – after just two years of potential MLB service time – they may not be able to afford the star player they added pieces around.
The Nationals have a history of dubious personnel decisions. Strasburg is definitely a good draft pick and a good player to have on the roster. But the contract is so tilted in Strasburg’s favor that it is possible the Nationals will develop him – and pay him a LOT of money – but not reap the benefits of their substantial investment.
As you may recall, The Sports Debates has discussed the pros and cons of having a pay scale in the NFL for rookies, comparing it to the concept already in place in the NBA. The situation in Major League Baseball is, however, a little different.
MLB holds their amateur draft in June every year. The teams have slightly over two months to reach a deal with the player they drafted. If the player and team do not come to an agreement by the August deadline (in this year’s case, August 17), the team loses all rights to that player and the player is eligible for the following year’s draft. Boston Red Sox outfielder J.D. Drew is one of the more notable players who did not sign when originally drafted by the Phillies in 1997. After not agreeing on a contract he played for the St. Paul Saints in the independent Northern League. He was eligible to be drafted in 1998, and was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals. Obviously, he received the wrath of Phillies fans soon after that, and he still hears boos in Philadelphia to this day.
It looked like 2009’s first overall pick, Stephen Strasburg, would not sign by the deadline. Strasburg, a m hyped pitcher from San Diego State whose fastball has been clocked at 102 mph on the radar, was drafted by the Washington Nationals. His agent, Scott Boras (a favorite whipping boy for Loyal Homer) demanded top dollar for his client. The Nationals were offering record money… but that was not enough. Nationals president Stan Kasten even stated publicly that a deal might not get made in time, despite offering Strasburg a record contract. However, at the last minute, the Nationals and Strasburg came to terms and agreed on a contract worth just over $15 million. The Nationals, in need of something good to happen to their organization, have since had an extravagant introduction ceremony for Strasburg.
That brings us to today’s debate. My colleagues will discuss who got the better end of this deal. Were the Nationals the real winners, or was the winner Stephen Strasburg? Bleacher Fan will argue that the Washington Nationals got the better end of the deal, while Sports Geek will argue that Strasburg came out ahead.
The winner gets free tickets to a Nationals game, and judging by the attendance figures in Washington this year, there should be plenty of seats near the field.
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