Read Loyal Homer and Sports Geek’s opinions.
I really wish that ESPN would quit wasting our time with Mock NFL Drafts.
Sit and analyze the athletes all day long! Project those players who you think have the best chance of competing successfully at the next level. You could even go so far as to speculate whom you think will be drafted #1 overall. After that, though, you are just making stuff up. It’s ALL bogus.
The first mistake made by Mock Draft analysts such as Mel Kiper, Jr., is that they try to make sense out of all the misinformation sent by NFL organizations. Some organizations are very good at keeping their cards close to the chest. These NFL organizations intentionally deceive and misinform in order to leverage any confusion to gain an advantage. Draft strategies are planned and executed in the same way a poker player bluffs, recognizes tells, and engages in guesswork.
Because of this misinformation, each subsequent draft pick becomes exponentially more difficult to predict. It becomes so difficult, in fact, that by the time the top-10 have actually been drafted, each analyst’s Mock Draft sheet is no longer worth the paper on which it’s printed.
Let’s compare the 2009 actual draft results to Mel Kiper, Jr.’s accuracy:
Actual Pick (Kiper’s Pick)
- Matthew Stafford (Matthew Stafford – good for you!)
- Jason Smith (Jason Smith – 2 for 2… you’re on a roll!)
- Tyson Jackson (Aaron Curry – Like Meatloaf said, though, two out of three ain’t bad!)
- Aaron Curry (Eugene Monroe – We’re still batting .500… in baseball, that’s legendary!)
- Mark Sanchez (B.J. Raji – The wheels are starting to come off…)
- Andre Smith (Michael Crabtree – I can’t watch any more…)
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (Jeremy Maclin – Kiper’s inner monologue… “I’ve never even HEARD of that guy”)
- Eugene Monroe (Mark Sanchez – Knowing you’re wrong before it even happens only makes it worse!)
- B.J. Raji (Brian Orapko – OHHH, THE HUMANITY!)
- Michael Crabtree (Aaron Maybin – The sound of Taps playing in the distance)
To recap, Mel Kiper, Jr., one of the NFL draft “experts” on ESPN, got only the first two picks correct. He then went OH’fer on the rest of the top 10, scoring a LOUSY 20% accuracy. The shame of this result is that his predictions came AFTER hearing about which players were eligible, and AFTER free-agency. This was his BEST guess, with the BEST information available. Even weather predictions are more accurate than that! I’d almost rather hear what Miss Cleo had to say about the Draft, because she would at least bring incense and trippy music!
These results beg the next question: If the “experts” can be so wrong with the best information available, how on earth can they even assume to have anything worth saying before free-agency, or before the deadline for players to declare their eligibility? Fortunately for sports fans everywhere, ESPN can often be oblivious to the need for accuracy, so they just ignore that fact.
ESPN analyst Todd McShay (whose 2009 top-10 accuracy matched Kiper’s by only predicting the first 2 correct) has actually ALREADY published a Mock Draft for 2010, BEFORE the NFL and NCAA seasons have even BEGUN!
When all is said and done, ESPN invests far too much time and energy in this process – which is a complete waste of time – and somehow feels that they are an authority on the topic. They might as well slap a 1-900 phone number in front of it, because that’s all the REAL value it would ever carry.
I don’t know about you, but at the Casa-Del-Bleacher-Fan, when you hear the TV say “And now, here to talk about his Mock Draft for 2010,” the next thing you hear is… -CLICK-!
I like mock drafts!It is the only draft where i still have a chance.I figure I will be drafted before Maurice Clarett!
I’m going with Mock Drafts on this one. What a monumental waste of time. Would anyone watch the Weather Channel if their information was right only 20% of the time? No. Besides, Mel Kiper reminds me of that douche that everyone works with, who wont stop constantly talking about football (or baseball or basketball or whatever). Then when you try and enter the conversation they competely ignore you. OR EVEN WORSE, god forbid you might actually know something they dont and catch them in an inaccuracy AND OH NO! the whole world comes crashing down as their supreme knowledge of NCAA football has been challenged as they insist that there is no such thing as the BCS National Championship Game and the Championship is shuttled around to the top 4 BCS Bowl games. And then you show them the page on wikipedia that explains that system was eliminated in 2006 and the BCS NCG was created, but OH NO that’s not enough! Everyone knows the internet, and espcially wikipedia, are full of lies created by the liberal media (except Fox) and then they run off to work on their fantasy draft even though it’s only April. So you’re sitting there with the wikipedia page open and your boss just happens to wander by and of course he looks at your screen then he looks at you and shakes his head. Then you go home and wonder what was that look that the boss gave you? What did it mean? Does he hate me? I bet he does. I hate him back. Ahhh, I’m hungry…
Man, where did I go? Oh ya, Mock Drafts are stupid.
– Mr Doots.
AH, the old “walk-by boss computer glance” — never fun. Hope that turns out well for you!
You okay, Mr. Doots?!
I only watch the mock drafts because I’m a die-hard Raiders fan and they haven’t done so hot in the last 5 years. When they get good again and we’re not picking high, I won’t follow it anymore!
How’s life as a die-hard Raiders fan?